Earning the right to bluff.

When you first start a poker tournament, you normally have a wide range of playing styles facing you, from wild overbetters to calling stations. Unless you are able to isolate conservative players, making bluffs into this blend of players is usually a bad idea.

The first task when starting any new tournament is to get an idea of the type of players you are facing, this will help guide your playing style, especially when you have aggressive players at your table. Some players will call a lot of big bets on second pair or unlikely draws, outright bluffing without first knowing the texture of the table is definitely a high risk manouver.

Over time, a couple of things happen. Calling stations with non-premium hands will be chipping out as people adapt to their playing style. Wild players, barring a run of luck, will have quickly gone out. The tournament players that remain are now more likely to believe bluffs.

If, over this time period, you have been playing a tight game, and only betting out on reasonable hits or draws, hopefully earning some chips, other players will have starting noting your playing style. When you make it to showdown, win or loose, your cards are going to be reviewed by the other players. Make sure your bets made sense, you bet out when your king hits, re-raised on two pairs, etc. You want other players to believe that when you bet, especially big, you have a big hand.

The combination of loosing players that call far too many hands with your own tight play will lead to bigger bluff opportunities later on. It typically takes a very strong bet to take a player off of top pair, early on in a tournament some players are prepared to go all in. But later on in a tournament, with a player you have seen over 75 hands with, you may have earned the right for a huge bluff that takes a big pot down.

All bluffs should make sense, if you are in a pot and an ace hits on the turn, you can make a big raise here representing the ace. Your bluff stands a much better chance of being believed than earlier on in the tournament.

Early on in a tournament, even the most well executed bluff can be called by bad players. Earning the right to bluff certain players can take time, but can also pay off well in the critical mid tournament stages.

Looking for opportunities

As you move beyond basic poker play, understanding the value of pairs, knowing odds on draws, adapting your play to other players, you rely on the actual strength of cards less and less as you start to seek opportunities.

You begin to increase your winnings not by having stronger cards, but by looking for other signs that indicate you may still be able to win the hand.

Rather than sticking to any specific playing strategy, you being to adapt your play to the playing style on the table, and the players on that table.

Poker moves from a game about cards to a game about players, seeking opportunities to lighten players of their stack.

The easiest players to play are rocks, conservative players who always wait for premium hands and only bet or call bets when they hit.

If you are on the button or small blind, and a rock is sitting in the big blind, any raise will take down the blinds from that player unless they have a hand. It doesn't matter what you have in your hand, a rock in the blinds is a clear steal indicator.

Even if they call, if the flop does not have an ace or two or more face cards, then the odds are they have missed. A modest continuation bet here will also take the pot away from the rock. Any calls or raises and you are facing a strong hand. So time to get out unless you have the same.

Another key area, particularly in the starting stages of a tournament, is to establish over aggressive player all in range. Of course, if you have either of the big pairs, you are going to be calling an all in from any player. If there is a player who is aggressively looking to double up however, you spend the time establishing range on this player, and getting ready to call their all in on a strong pair like 9s or 10s.

The classic continuation bet trap works as follows. An aggressive player makes a pre-flop raise. You call. The flop comes down. The aggressive player makes a continuation bet. You call. They check on the turn. You make a bet the same size as their continuation bet. They fold. This is another opportunity to seek. Is there a player who makes continuation bets every time they re-flop raise? If so, this technique can be used to take their chips when they miss.

Increasing your winnings by seeking opportunities marks the movement from a poker player relying on luck and good cards to a poker player relying on skill. In extreme cases, I have doubled up over time or more without having a single hand. Of course, the players I am playing are what provide this opportunity, careful analysis can increase your winning ratio.

Real life poker tells #3, preparing for battle

There is a general category of poker tells called "preparing for battle". There are a few different tells that all mean the same thing, we will go over these below. But first, knowing the motivation for preparing for battle can help you know when the other player has a strong hand.

Preparing for battle simply means you are getting ready to seriously play your hand, and that your tells or group of tells indicate this. So, pre-flop preparing for battle includes any tell that means you are getting ready to play the hand, shifting your seat position from relaxed to attentive, moving or leaning your body closer to the table, looking at your opponents around the table carefully before making a bet.

Post flop, the signs may be even more obvious as more of the hand has been revealled. If a soldier is preparing to charge, they would typically inhale, their shoulders would raise, and they would lean in. The same happens post flop if a player has a hand they are definitely interested in continuing to play, that is, most likely, their hand has either hit big or has significantly improved.
So, if player shows the following tells, they are preparing for battle, getting ready to play their hand in a serious way:

1. Big inhale when the flop hits.
2. Moving from a slouch to a more attentive position at the table.
3. Looking over other players and chip stacks carefully before making a move.
4. Looking at the players they feel are their competition in the current pot and looking down at them with their chin and nose up. This tell is also sometimes combined with the inhale. It means I think I have you beat and am now planning a chip extraction strategy. (the opposite to this tell is lowering their head and looking down when the flop hits, this indicates lack of interest in the flop or hand).
5. Placing hands or arms on the table when they were formerly at the players side, on their lap.

Generally, any tell that shows an increased level of interest in the hand than the players baseline behaviour is one that falls into the preparing for battle category. This can generally indicate strength to you, and you can adjust your game accordingly.

Playing medium aces

Once you move beyond understanding the fundamentals of playing poker, raise or fold more than you limp, staying in hands after an aggressive player makes a continuation bet, and, most importantly, winning, you can start to increase your range depending on situation and win hands with less than strong holdings.

Medium Aces can lead to increases in your stack by learning the other players style and capitalizing on that style. Of course the tight player who raises preflop is a good reason to get out of the hand as your Ace 8 is probably beat, but in many of the games I play (3-5$ sit n gos) there is still far to much limping that can mean your Ace 8 is actually the strongest hand.

One of the first leaks poker tracking software identified in my game was limping. It doesn't seem like much to simply pop in a blind and see where the hand goes, but, over time, you can end up loosing significant amounts of chips. I was loosing about 15-20% of my potential profit on limping with weak hands. Don't do it unless you have a specific strategy against another player in mind.

So, if you are at a table with limpers, you first need to establish limping range. Players who are in too many pots with limps over time typically have a range that includes weak aces or any two face cards. In either of these cases, your Ace 8 is ahead. There is also a certain alure to a Weak ace that is suited. The potential of the nut flush or the even less likely wheel adds percieved value to the weak ace. So, too many people play these hands. Identify them.

Then, when you have a medium ace, you can call their limp and be ahead. The best situation is to hit that ace and have them dominated. Or, make a convincing raise and potentially take down the pot right there, and be ahead if they don't.

When you are in later position, a medium ace can be a good semi bluff hand, if you have a limp or two in behind you and players ahead of you who do fold to raises, then you can make a decent raise and often take down the pot right there. If someone who has not yet acted however calls your raise, depending on their playing style, you can be reasonably sure that you are not ahead at the time.

If your raise has been called, then you actually are more interested in hitting your kicker than the Ace itself, since a called raise may imply a second stronger ace. Since a high pair would most likely re-raise you pre-flop, your are more likely to be against a strong ace or a medium pair. You may of course do a continuation bet regardless of the flop texture, following your pre-flop raise and hoping the other player folds. Hitting your ace in this situation means you have to procede carefully and assess the other player. You have to be willing to fold if the other player shows no fear of your raises or raises significantly themselves (and they are not a maniac).

Medium aces are not likely to win big pots unless, like any other hand, you hit two pair or better. However, in the case of lots of pre-flop limps and predicatable opponent behaviour, you may actually be ahead and calling or raising with that ace can end up giving you a positive expected value.

Waiting for the elevator

My wife and I were coming home from a friendly poker tournament the other night, and were discussing some of the hands in the taxi on the way home. The cab driver heard us, and started talking about poker, especially texas hold-em.

He started talking about more serious cash and tournament poker, and a player type he keeps running in to. In his view, the worst type of poker player, the type that doesn't win tournaments or gain respect, is the type who 'waits for the elevator'.

Waiting for the elevator refers to a playing style where, not only does the player wait for premium hands rather than looking for pre-flop steal opportunities, but also waits for a strong hit before taking any action post flop. They are basically waiting for a big hand before taking any action, regardless of how many folds it takes. They rarely three bet.

They other wise don't pay attention to the game when they are not in hands, not looking for opportunities or looking at another players style.

They are waiting for premium pre-flop cards followed by waiting for a hit post flop, meaning they are folding most hands before they see the turn.

They can also easily be taken advantage of, any strong bet will be folded to if they are holding less than a premium hand.

This type of player can do well against over aggressive players because the aggressive player will be facing premium cards if they continue to call. Otherwise, they are fairly easy to exploit.

There is definitely an equivalent on-line. And they are certainly easier to play, if you raise they will usually fold, if they don't, you know they have strong holdings.

I think the cabbie would be a worthy opponent in a poker tournament, who knows who you might meet at the tables... I won't get caught waiting for the elevator.

Playing head up vs a maniac

The last post in this blog covered playing a conservative adaptive player by switching gears.

It also mentioned how to play the conservative card player if you end up heads up against them. Usually this is only in free or very low buy in tournaments, as conservative players are too easy to play, so you don't usually encounter them late in tournaments.

However, sometimes you meet the opposite player heads up. A player who plays too many pots and is too aggressive. This player can mow a conservative field, but is slow to get out of hands when a tight player displays an obvious hit by calling their huge bets. They begrudingly respect huge raises.

When you meet this player, be prepared for a lot of large pre flop raises. Instant all ins to your pre-raises. Aggression.

The first thing I do is start keeping a mental tally of all ins, compared to hands played. If they go all in 1 in 4 hands, then I have a good idea that their range is at least any ace, most if not all pairs, any two face cards and 10s, possibly higher suited connectors. 1 in 3 and almost any single face card comes in.

Other than that, the name of this game is patience. For now only, switch back to playing the cards, remembering that heads up much lower hands are in play now, such as K 5.

If you are in 30 or greater bb range, you can afford to pick your spots. You loose the least on weak hands folding pre-flop in the small blind. Do so.

When you do get a strong hand, let the aggressor handle the raising pre flop.

So, with K 5 in the bb he raises to 5x bb from small blind. You call.


Flop 1. You hit the king.

When you hit big on the flop, you check. Allow the other players aggression to get his chips. Go all in to take the hand after their raise.


Flop 2. You hit the five, low pair.

Chances are, you are still ahead here, but no check raise. Bet immediately at the pot a bet that is close to pot size. They begrudginly respect big bets so most likely will fold unless they have hit.


Flop 3. You hit nothing.

Two choices here, use the same play as #2 for the bluff with the potential risk that goes along with a bluff, or fold to their raise.


Sometimes just a few of these hands can determine the match, as they loose way too many chips finding out that you actually have a hand.

Smarter aggressive players however will start to back off on bet size and raise size, because they don't get much when you fold, and when you do call, you are probably going to have a decent hand.

When they do tighten up in response to your tighter play, you can now start the usual analysis of determining current range, what they still raise with, what they call. Sometimes, behind all of this aggression, you find a weak player, and can take advantage of that fact.

Keep in mind that this type of player is just bursting to get out the big bet, so, even at this slightly slower pace, when they DO hit, they will go all in on the spot.

Unless they hit harder than top pair, which will most likely be slow played. A big hit can usually be spotted because a check to them on the flop will result in a check back, after a longer than usual time period.

As with all head up play, keep a constant eye on how often they go all in, and adjust your range appropriately.

So, when you do find yourself in heads up play with a maniac, picking your spots and using their predicatable playing pattern can deliver a few huge pots, if not the win.

When to change gears

Changing gears is modification of your own play from playing one range of cards to playing a different range of cards, possibly along with a corresponding change in bet size and bluff rate.

But when do you change gears? When can you profit the most from a change in gear?

The answer, as it usually does, lies within the other players.

Generally speaking, you want to change gears when another player has adapted to your current gear.

But how do we know when that has happened?

One simpler scenario uses heads up play, since we don't have to worry about isolating the opposing player, just what they are playing with.

Quite often in the small tournaments I play, either because they are free or low buy in (1-5$) if I end up heads up its against this type of player:

Conservative adaptive.

This type of player typically does well in cheap or free tournaments because they play their cards well, usually only play strong hands, and will adapt their play to other players range.

So, how do you approach this player heads up?

I almost always kick into high gear heads up to start with to assess the other opponents reaction to my increased pre flop betting rate and size, post flop bets, etc.

The only caveat to that is that I fold about 1 in 4 starting hands, this lets the other player know that there is some selection going on within my starting cards, so they know I am not preflop raising with just anything.

If the player is conservative, non-adaptive, then, barring a run of strong cards, I am going to win. Because I win the vast majority of pots where they either have bad hole cards or miss the flop, and know easily when to get out when they call my big bets or make one themselves.

However, much more likely, I will have a conservative adaptive player on my hands who is going to CHANGE THEIR RANGE within short order of my new aggression.

So, what am I looking for? I am looking for the player to start to call my big bets with lower cards, call those continuation bets on the flop with second pair or worse, or even better, call my post flop bets with two over cards.

This is when you change gears.

While the pre-flop bet action remains the same (I don't want the other player to know I have changed gears as long as possible), my post flop action changes.

I no longer bet first almost every time, I bet depending on the flop texture and likely hits, I bet depending on what I have hit, and most importantly, I bet when I have a strong hit. Its no longer a random "see how they react and continue if I'm getting their chips" scenario, now careful selection comes into place. I don't want the change to be too obvious, so if I have checked the last flop I played I will probably bet the next one so they don't detect my change in range.

The change is there, but its subtle.

The other player continues to expect your steamroller action to continue, so they will continue to call with weak hands.

So, you start to punish them with your strong hands. You start to reraise significantly when you do have top pair. Forcing them to fold their weaker hand and wonder if you have simply increased bet size further rather than modifying range.

Of course, this entire time, you are very wary of any aggression from them, at first you respect it, until a strong hand that you hold allows you to call. You are also keeping a close eye on what type of hands they do display aggression with. At first it should be solid, but their adaptive play, especially when you start reraising on your big hits, may mean they start getting aggressive on weaker and weaker hands.

At this stage you avoid their all ins all together by folding unless you have a strong hand. And this will also start to reinforce in there minds that all ins are an effective way to get you to fold. You want them to go all in on lower and lower holdings.

The point of all of this is to get them into a situation where they have put a lot of their chips down on a very marginal hand, and you have them beat.

So, the change in gears here is changing from basically a maniac mode, where, except for pre-flop hand selection (1 in 4 folds), you are raising almost every time preflop, and raising almost every time post flop, to one where you are actually raising with careful intention behind it.

The adaptive player will quickly start picking up on your maniac mode and adjust their calling range, this is when your calling range decreases, and more intelligent play starts.

As the other player becomes comfortable calling larger and larger bets with weaker and weaker hands, you use that against them to take their chips when you do hit.

As much as possible, you don't want to let them know your range has changed, so I will still continuation bet on ragged flops or flops with only one face card, flops that they were unlikely to hit, and play from there.

But when the big chips are on the line, you now have strong holdings to back that up.

Last night, the range of the adaptive conservative player had adjusted down to two over cards on the flop, calling my big bets. So, when the flop comes down 10 7 4 rainbow, and I have 10 6, I make a huge bet about half their stack size (which, considering my bet history, is not out of the range of normality in their eyes).

Last night this exact situation happened, afer about 20 minutes of play, and 4 so far successful all ins on their part, I make the big raise with now top pair, and they, after some time, move all in.

What is their range now? 20 minutes ago I would have been almost certain to loose, I most likely would have been outkicked if not more.

Now, their range is second pair, third pair, or possibly even two over cards so I call.

They show QK suited and I win the heads up battle. After they miss on the turn and river.

This combination of changing gears from maniac to carefully considered, combined with careful reads on the changes in the other players range, means you can manipulate yourself into a win.

The change of gears isn't as obvious as say, going from tight conservative to loose aggressive, but the point is to maximize the exploitation you gain from the gear change, and that is what you are trying to do here.

The proposal

Here is the set up. You are participating in a large poker tournament with a 10 000 buy in. After about 3 hours in, you are doing ok, about an average stack.

You take a bathroom break, and on the way back, a friend makes a proposal. He will give you direct odds on winning the next hand. If you win, you win $9000. If you loose, you owe him $1000.

As all players do, you think you are a slightly better poker player than most at the table, so you take the bet.

You sit back at the table, and wait to get dealt back in. Your the third to act, your hole cards are dealt to you.

They are 7 2 off.

Have you just lost $1000 dollars?

If you are playing the cards, or the odds, then it would certainly look like it.

However, if you have decent reads on the other players, their may still be a chance.

One of the most significant changes a poker player goes through when their skills increase is they stop playing there own cards, and start playing the other players.

W0uld you be able to win a hand if you didn't look at your hole cards? Would you be confident enough in your reads to know when there is opportunity?

So, let's run through one possible scenario with that 7 2 off.

Firstly, you are in early position, so, as long as your table rep is decently tight, you would raise 3 to 5x the big blind.

This is your first opportunity to win the bet.

However, this is a nine handed table with only two folders, so you are likely to get at least one caller.

So, what range would the other players call your big bet with? Your reads on their tighness or looseness are invaluable here, as well as your own table rep.

We are also looking at the flop texture, what are likely hits for someone calling the pre-flop raise?

The first step is of course to carefully observe the other players reaction to the flop. Did he hit, did he miss?

The flop comes down 9 Q 4 rainbow.

If you are positive on your read of weakness, then you can bet now and win the hand.

If you are not so certain, you should analyse the flop, and assess what bet size would accomplish the following two things?

1. Loosing the least money possible if they have the queen.
2. Betting sufficiently high so that any player with A 9 or A 4 would fold.

Once you have established that bet size, somewhere between half and all of the pot, you make the bet.

And there is your second chance at winning your buddies money.

I sometimes have to remember that the reactions of the other players to the flop, and the betting patterns they display, are actually MORE important than the cards you hold. In order to be successful at poker, which I am still working on, you need to win hands where you do not necessarily have the best cards.

By stopping the focus on our own cards, and putting the focus where it should be, the other players, you can win significantly more hands than playing the cards alone.

Real Life Poker Tells #2

Eyes wide open

There is one tell that is so hard to hide, even the pro's on TV occasionally show it.

It is most powerful when the cards they see give them sudden good news.

A recent hand I watched with Phil Ivey had Phil with 10 7 off, he had taken a stab at the stealing the blinds but was called by the big blind. Probably thinking that he was getting out of this hand pretty shortly with some wasted chips. However, after the flop, he had a clear tell.

When some people unexpectedly hear or see something they really like, their eyes widen with an expression similar to surprise. Sudden good news causes their eyes to visibly open further for a brief period before going back to normal again.

One key way this tell can save you a lot of chips is when a set hits. A set hitting is very good news, on a board with no straights/flushes, only the highly unlikely higher set could have you beat. This is definitely a case where some players eyes will widen on when they hit.

Any powerful hand can can cause this reaction.

Phils eyes had registered surprise at a flop giving him two pair, you hit two pairs when you don't hold a pocket pair about 2% of the time, so his reaction makes sense.

This same reaction can occur in any poker game with players who are focussed and want to win. Its probably time to fold your hand if an opponents eyes suddenly widen.

Playing as the big stack.

Careful play, good decisions, and of course luck can land you in the ideal position in any poker tournament, the big stack.

Having the big stack means the range of options available to you is at its widest, you have the most play, you have the least to fear from other stacks.

Some players, such as Phil Helmuth, actually don't recommend a significant change in playing style once you hit the big stack, his argument is that you must have been doing something right to get there, so continue with that same strategy to continue building your stack.

That just doesn't match my style, I am constantly checking my aggression, letting consideration rule over impulse, and playing my stack size and position. Once I have the big stack though, my intention, put simply, is to do the same thing I feel effective big stack players do to me. I want to crush opponents. I want every decision for the small stacks to be critical, I want them to fear entering a raised pot with me, I want to throw them off their game.

Put simply, I want my ubber aggressive play to have put other players off of their comfort zone, with two results:

1. Some of the small stacks will lower their range as they know that you must be bluffing at least part of the time. I want these stacks to start to call my big bets with weaker holdings, second pair, etc.
2. Other small stacks will turtle until they have premium starting hands.

The second result is easy to play, you call their pre-flop raise with any decent holding, and you normally bet the flop if they check, or bet if you act first. They predictably fold if they have nothing, and call or raise if they don't. The HUD will be the first indicator of this playing style as the number of hands they get involved in continues to decrease.

The key with the first type of player is to start to identify when they have lowered their range. Getting caught in a big stack bluff where they call you with second pair is one slightly painful way, but you can also see through hand histories or other information what their starting holdings are changing to, or what they start calling with. I will sometimes even call modest river bets from them with nothing just to see where their range is at. Only once though :) Once these players range lowers you take advantage of this by raising your own range when playing these players. By not adjusting your range for other players, and being specific to these players, they will not pick up so quickly on the range adjustment.

Large pre flop raises of around 5x the bb usually mean you are able to effectively isolate these two types of people and play them accordingly. In multi way pots the combination of playing styles means you won't be able to exploit them so effectively. This is why the pre-flop raise is so important. In multi way pots check your aggression to avoid loosing too many chips.

Another key to big stack play is all in range isolation. Smaller stacks start to engage in all in madness when they are frustrated with pre-flop raise sizes or lack of ability to generate chips. So small pairs and ace-anything start to come within range. Unlike almost any other stack size, I am more than willing to get involved in a coin flip with any smaller stack, I can afford the loss and keep increasing my odds of getting further in the tournament with every player I take out.

Of course, the larger the stack I am in the pot with, the more respect I give them and the more carefully I play. I am always willing to go head on with any stack if the cards are there, but less bluffs and less overbets while playing them. This change of gears when playing big stacks means they are not able to take advantage of your increased betting range, and, even better, they sometimes don't understand your playing habits are being catered to individual playing styles, so they will assume your range with them is also lower.

So, the keys I have learned so far to big stack play are:

1. Increased aggression pre and post flop.
2. Determine the effects of your aggressive playing style on the other players, adjust accordingly.
3. Be entirely willing to call all ins on coin flips.
4. Play other large stacks more conservatively.
5. Adjust your playing style to the type of players, don't just increase aggressiveness and range for all hands. By playing players individually, they will incorrectly read that your entire table gear has changed and make mistakes.


One small note. The micro stack play developed earlier in this blog was an attempt to counter this style.

Using poker hand tracking software

Upon recommendation from a friend, I decided to download hold-em manager, a hand tracking and analysis tool used to assist in online poker play.

It is really two different tools, one is the HUD that hovers over the players heads displaying in game data as it happens. The other is a data analysis tool.

So, I decided to perform an experiment. Over the last 6 months, I have played the 4.40 buy in 180 person tournament almost 20 times, placed twice, for a loss of over 60 bucks. My biggest overall loss in money has come from this tournament size and buy in.

So, I reasoned, if I could play at these tournaments using the hand manager tool and improve, then maybe there is something to this. And I also wanted practice before the weekly 11$ tournament. I decided to try the tournament 4 times.

It did help. It identified nicely the two extremes of players, the "Wait for the nuts" players and the "I want to see every flop" players. I was able to be a bit more wary of the tight players as I was more sure of the reads, and more likely to keep following a second pair or weak draw on the very loose players. Other stats around CBetting and post flop aggression also assisted in making correct decisions.

So, in those 4 tournaments I placed twice, both times higher than I ever had before, and I ended up with a net profit of almost 20 bucks. Not bad!

Played it this weekend on the $11 dollar buy in, and liked the additional information it gave. Didn't place higher, but, in combination with other information, such as player stack size, position, prior betting habits, amount of time they take to bet, and perhaps a read on their current "gear", I was able to make some choices I was confident in.

Did recognize however their are some dangers to using this tool.


Dangers of the HUD


While I recognize that this tool organizes my reads a bit better, and is able to remember players that leave the table and come back later, I also have to watch out for the pitfalls:

1. This tool does NOT replace good reads. It supplements them. Just like the multi-table grinding, using JUST this tool for your reads may result in slow profit at lower levels over time, but I don't believe the profit is optimized.

2. This tool represents much of the data as AVERAGES over time. You still have to be very aware of when a player changes gears. Just because they are in 40% of the pots doesn't mean that right now they aren't holding a strong hand, perhaps a recently called bluff has tightened them up, or a strong bet from you gets called when they typically fold to real aggression.

3. And you still have to be very aware of the CONTEXT of the actions of the other players. Sure, a player who is in more than 50% of the pots has a lower range, and if they always CBET, then it is much more likely that they are not holding a strong hand when they do continuation bet, but, if you JUST use the tool, the context is lost. So if that aggressive player pre-flop raises, then CBETS after the flop, you also have to consider who they are playing against, what position they raised from, etc. Because an aggressive loose player who is also skilled will not be aggressive loose against a conservative player who is calling their action, they will tighten up. The tool won't tell you that, good reads otherwise of players habits will.

4. This tool cannot be an excuse for not paying attention to the game, such as surfing the net, watching TV or whatever. I have found over time these to be money loosing activities if combined with poker.

So, so far so good, probably buying this tool, but wanting to be wary that it doesn't replace other important sources of information.

Real life poker tells #1

The Loudest Guy at the Table

As I learn about tells, I learn the most obvious first. And this tell has definitely been the most obvious of any I have seen at Real Life tournaments.

Quite often, during a poker tournament, one of the players at the table is involved in a lot more of the conversations than anyone else, could be lots of joking, lots of opinions, or just general banter.

This type of player is very easy to pick out from the group.

And it is most obvious, of any of the player types, when this persons behaviour changes.

As with all players that you play at the poker table, we are trying to establish a baseline of behavior, behaviour that represents the players "normal" state.

And if the player is normally loud, social, and involved in a lot of conversations, then they are also the easiest with which to establish a baseline.

When Loud Players Go Quiet

So what happens when the loud player suddenly goes quiet? What does it mean? It depends on the context of the hand.

If a loud player suddenly goes quiet after observing thier hole cards, they intend to play the hand.

How does this help you? If the table is looking at their hole cards in sequence, and the loud player is acting before you, when they go quiet and raise the pot, its probably time to fold unless you have a really strong hand.

And if they are acting after you, you can still associate their silence and bet with strength, tread very carefully or fold if you limped in before they acted.

What about if they go silent after the flop?

This one is key, because the timing of the silence is the key to the strength of the hand.

If they go silent as soon as the flop comes down, they have hit the flop. And are intending to play. Unless you have also hit the flop or are priced in on draws, its a good time to fold.

If they remain loud however after the flop, but after consideration make a large bet and then go silent, then this is a bluffing sign.

Before any real chips are risked on these type of reads, the loud player should be observed in hands that you are not involved in, to see if the theory proves correct. I like to verify a read two or three times before I put chips on them.

But when the loud player goes quiet, depending on the circumstance, you can get out of trouble, or, even better...

... call them on that huge bluff.

Real Life Poker Tells - 101

The hardest thing about tells is getting started. Beyond looking at someone when they make a big move at you and thinking "Do I believe them?", its hard to know where to start.

And there is so much information to see, how do you know what means something, and what doesn't?

Since we can't see all players at all times, we need to carefully select when to observe behavior. Beyond that though, there are other good reasons for keeping the amount of observation to a minimum.

1. You only want to spend time finding out important information, as its impossible to remember everything anyway.
2. Too much staring isn't appropriate.
3. Being obvious about looking for tells is going to make other players more conscious of hiding them.

So when are the two most important times to observe other players? Any time new cards are revealed, or other new information, such as a big bet, occurs. The two most obvious being:

1. Reading the hole cards.
2. Watching the flop.

If you observe players when they are looking at something else, such as their hole cards or the flop, they won't be aware of you looking for tells, and, more importantly, their tells will be most pronounced and accurate during the first moments they see these cards.

Any time there is a big decision, you want to be looking at the other players face when the decision has to be made, or if a big event has occured, a re-raise or all in, you want to be looking at the other players reaction to this event.

Knowing WHEN to look for tells is a good first step towards adding this strategy to your poker arsenal. Focus on the information that is key to making decisions later.

The plan

Started playing online poker about 6 months ago.

Did alright in the sit and go's, didn't make any money, but won enough to at least be encouraged, I won back over time about 70% of my investment, so a slow decline in funds but nothing rediculous. All on 1 and 3 dollar sit and goes.

But what I really enjoyed, when I could find the time, was the really large 1000+ person tournaments. I like the way the game changes as the blinds move up, the pacing, the sudden all or nothing decisions followed by 12 hands hitting the muck preflop.

I did ok there too, breaking the bubble about 1 in 7 times before one tournament a month and a half ago. Where I got third, for 851 bucks.

That was more than twice what I had spent online in total so far so really it didn't take much convincing that these tournaments were the way to go.

So, paid back all of the money I had put into poker stars, and then the rest is a bankroll. About 500 bucks.

And now, of course, like all poker players, I want to make as much money as possible in the shortest period of time. And have a blast doing so of course.

So, except for the occasional sit and go, I am now playing $11 buy in online large tournaments of 2000+ people. The final table is rediculously lucrative.

And, out of 6 tournaments so far, have gotten past the bubble once to 83rd for 104 bucks.

If my bankroll goes below 150 though its back to the $3 dollar tournaments to try and learn more.

But I would certainly much rather learn on the way to a 12 thousand dollar payday!

Why this blog?

Despite the supreme pleasure my wife takes in every nuance of every exciting online poker hand I describe to her, I decided that perhaps I needed another outlet.

I have also been working to develop strategies that work for me, that end up with me making money. There is so much ability through hand history to assess and adjust your game, its a challenge I find very rewarding.

So this blog is also my notes. Its a way of trying to remember each strategy as I try them. I know the tone is very "teachy", but I seem to learn things best if I have to then teach them to someone else. Something about how you have to organize your thoughts before you can pass them on. It got me through college, its now teachin me poker!

So, lots of ideas and strategies here that you may or may not agree with. And hopefully an ever improving understanding of the game of poker.

Playing as the micro stack

When you stack has shrunk to below 10x the big blind, especially when 7x or below, poker wisdom states that you are now in desperation mode, and that all ins on ace anything or any hand with any strength are your last desperate gambit to double up.

I disagree.

I have been reviewing hand histories and have discoved that you can survive in a large tournament, even get back into the action, with a stack hovering around 3 to 7 x the big blind.

My best tournament result ever, 3rd in a 3$ buy in large tourney for $851, included 20 minutes of play where the stack was down as low as 2x the big blind.

And last night, 11$ buy in 2300 person tourney, I spent the last hour of the tournament at less than 10x the big blind, with 20 hands at 3x the big blind or less. Which meant my finish went from a $60 300th place finish to a $104 83rd place finish.

Having a stack this low doesn't mean your completely desperate and should give up in a desperation ace nothing move, it simply means you will have two key decisions to make at some point in the near future.

- Whether you will call or raise pre flop.
- Whether you will all in or fold post flop.

As the micro stack, you have no turn or river decisions, you have just the pre and post flop decision.

If you are the micro stack at the table, you will have been playing the same players for a while, and should have them grouped into categories:

Super aggressive big stack.
Tight aggressive big stack.
Any aggressive players (in a lot of hands).
Desperate short stacks.
Rocks (only premium, only play on big flop hits).

The players you end up playing against will determine large in your decision making.

The other key to micro stack playing is the pot odds play a huge role in determining what you are going to play with.

Here is the basic strategy:

1. Calling is a viable alternative to going all in and is recommended for drawing hands. If you are calling, you are also willing to call a raise doubling your bet, due to pot odds.
2. Made hands are all ins, 55s and up.
3. The basic calling strategy is call with your drawing hand (K J), and if either card hits post flop, go all in. If a conservative player has raised before you, fold pre flop.
4. Pot odd weigh heavily on decisions. If ever the pot odds are 1 in 5 or greater, call to particate in the flop.
5. At this stack size, your all-ins have very little impact on other pre-flop play, especially from early position. Instead call with strong drawing hands and A x hands. Go all in when they hit on the flop.
6. When you miss on the flop fold.

You may seem to be in desperate circumstances but even with 3x the big blind and antes, you still will have 16 hands to play before the blinds wipe you out. So the other non-conventional component of this strategy is patience.

Reading other players and playing position also influence decisions.

So, if you have A 3 off and are first to play, you have two choices, fold or call. Not go all in. All in from first position is a bad idea because:

1. Your all in doesn't have any real impact for multiple stacks at the table. You are going to get called. Whether you limp in or go all in here is not going to have much influence on the final outcome of the pre-flop betting.
2. Any other ace will likely have you dominated and will almost definitely be at least calling here. A big raise from a strong ace is an opportunity to escape pre flop.

When you call here you are in the two decision area. If you hit your ace on the flop you are all in. If not, you are folding to any action. The only reason you would bluff here is if you are playing against conservative players who are playing their cards, who will fold if they miss regardless of the player betting into them.

On the button however, you have an easy call if more than two others have limped in, due to rediculous pot odds.

And, if everyone had folded to you, and neither the small or big blind are super aggressive big stacks, you do go all in here with the A 3. Your all in here has impact, at least on more conservative players, if neither player has at least a medium strength hand, they will both fold.

Post flop play is simple, if you hit, all in, miss, fold. There is room for the very occasional bluff with tight stacks checking to you.

Any time pot odds are greater than 1 in 5, call. And follow the same rules for post flop action on your cards, if either hit, you go all in.

In summary, instead of putting all your chips in at 7x the bb on Ace three, call with the hand and see what the flop brings. Even at 7x the bb, you may still be able to play two or three more hands and double or more up, wait until you can be more certain that you are ahead before committing your entire stack.

All ins have less impact on other pre-flop play, so anticipate they will always be called. So don't go all in on drawing hands.

Call instead and waiting for hits.

Range goes down as pot odds go up. The opportunity to triple up or more is never missed unless a conservative player has re-raised before you.

Of course, the goal of all of this careful play is to at least double up, and get back into the action where a wider range of strategies are available. That is why pot odds are so key. But that necessity to double up shouldn't overtake careful play, a little patience can increase your odds of actually doubling up when you do hit.

This approach has taken me through thin parts of multiple tournaments now and eventually on to my two best monetary finishes yet. Its a combination of patience for the right cards and sudden vital decisions that may determine your future. Make those decisions carefully and you can not only survive the micro stack, you can escape.

Predicting a players behaviour (online reads)

There are three different pieces of information you can use to predict what a players actions may mean. They include in order of importance:

1. Players prior history.
2. Size of bet.
3. Speed of bet.

And possibly in a distant fourth, online chat.

The most important way to accurately predict what players actions mean is to review their actions in prior hands, both by observing and reviewing hand history. On all ins, you can follow how the player bets pre-flop and start to establish pre-flop range. Then watch how they bet through the hand, do they bluff? Did they bet when they hit? Did they slow play?

What you are trying to establish is a baseline, normal behaviour for that player. You are attempting to establish both a range of cards that this player considers playable, and the range of bets they make when they hit or bluff.

How quickly does this player make bets? Does it vary greatly? What hands do they hold when they bet out quickly?

All of this information is combined with their current actions in an attempt to predict the players cards.

One example of reading bet size is a hand I had recently where I hadn't hit on the flop at all, but a super aggressive big stack had predictably and aggressively raised both pre flop and now on post flop. An overbet. I knew from hand history that he would bet out on almost any flop, but the bet was over one half my stack size. I called and watched to see what happened on the turn.

First off, the decision took a long time. How long would you take when your the big stack to make a decision if you had any real strength? Secondly, the size of the bet was smaller than the flop bet, 1/2 the size. It seemed feeble. I re-raised all in on nothing and won that pot.

Of course, sometimes reads are way off, or sometimes you get the odd river donk, but, I hope, over the long term, spending the time attempting to establish baseline behaviour will result in good decision making.

Super aggressive big stack, isolate before you call!

I have been caught a couple of times now by a situation where my range on a super aggressive big stack was dead on, but I got caught out by the third man in the pot.

Put simply, my A J off was dominant against the super aggressive big stack raise, but when a normally tight third player also calls the big raise, my hand may no longer be ahead.

The situation outlined in my prior big stack post, where my A kicker was correctly higher than the big stack, but I get caught by a third man in, has lead me to refine my approach further.

If anyone calls the big reraise, or goes all in before me, of course I am out unless on really premium hands.

Figuring out the big stacks range and using it to manipulate odds in your favour is a great strategy for surviving their raises. But unless you combine those odds with being able to isolate the big stack, another player showing strong interest is a good time to get out.

So, if just the super aggressive big stack is in, the range is:

77 s up
A 10 up
K J up


If another player shows interest, then the range decreases to top 10% or less.

The power of changing gears

Watching other players being effective at what they do is a good way to learn extra techniques and patterns that can be applied to your own game.

I watched one player last night give an extreme example of what "changing gears" means, and how to use it to your advantage.

At the start of the tournament, he appeared to be perhaps the ultimate aggressive fish. On every hand that at least had one re-raiser and one caller, he would go all in. Basically, whenever the pot grew to a size over 10x the bb, he would go all in.

You might assume some card selection went into his all ins, but the hand history would indicate otherwise. His lowest hand that he went all in was Q 4 off!

At first he scooped a couple of big pots until people got a better idea of his range, over the next half hour he busted out and rebought (at 10 bucks ago) SEVEN TIMES.

Eventually he did get lucky, and with a few all in moves and a good catch or two, he became the big stack at the table.

Long story short, over the first hour this player was a maniac, going all in on any big pots, willing to rebuy as many times as necessary until he got a big hit.

In that hour all players remaining at the table got a very good idea of his wild play, and you started to see a lot more reraise aggression on second pair, as his range was so low.

So, my calling range on this guy, IF I was able to isolate him in the pot, was any A 9 or higher, any pair 77s or higher, any two face cards with the possible exception of QJ off.

And I doubled up through him once in that first hour with that strategy. All good right?

Well, unknown to the rest of the table, this player who I am sure all of us put somewhere in the "super lucky donk streak" category, suddenly tightened up. Suddenly his calling and re-raising range made a lot more sense.

In the next hour he succeeded in devestating the table. People went all in on second pairs when he had top pair, he started folding to agression. He continued getting lots of action due to his first hour of highly notable maniac play, and continued getting paid off on his premium hands.

I did notice that he was playing less hands, and that his all in calls were starting to have meat behind them, but like the other unfortunate players who lost their stacks to this guy in the second hour of play, I called an all in when my ace hit on the flop (my cards A 9), and he had A Q.

I started seeing evidence of him changing gears, but for whatever reason (also due to my small stack, less than 10x bb) I disregarded that information.

I don't regret my action, at such a small stack against an aggressive player A 9 on is not a bad all in move, but I am much more interested in what made this guy effective. Two things:

1. He played initially a memorable playing style that was sure to be noted by the table. Within that first hour all but the most innattentive players would know his range.

2. He completely changed 180 degrees his calling range after that first hour, and one by one picked of the rest of the table on his now premium hands.

The big flaw of this strategy of course is that you risk too much to start with (in my opinion), and then you really have to count on a good amount of premium hands or at least strong flops after the first hour of wildness to pull it off.

Both of which are not risks I am willing to take.

However, it does illustrate in the extreme the power of switching gears, in this case from maniac to tight conservative.

The adjustment period that other players go through is the ultimate point of exploitation.

So, two keys here to switching gears:

1. Your playing style or hands you have hit recently are notable, either through their size or strength. The other players at the table MUST have you on a certain range of hands.

2. Your change should be sudden and fairly drastic. If you have been playing tight conservative, your sudden large raises and aggression will initially be folded to, as players give you credit for a tight range. And, as in the extreme example above, if you are in lots of pots, raise on anything, and get caught on a few bluffs, then playing a premium hand in the same way as you played the loose hands can net some big results.

Generally, the safest way to play a big tournament at the lower blind levels is play aggressive conservative for the first hour or so, and then suddenly switch to aggressive lose and continue until players start to lower their calling range, then switch back.

The transition between your playing styles will end up being luctrative.

Playing the cards

Learning to play the cards is the foundation of good poker play.

Understanding which hands are strong, which weak, learning to recognize how a hand changes after the flop, and learning the value of draws are all critical skills learned through just playing the cards.

Playing the cards simply means that your decisions and betting patterns are dictated by the strength of your hand. The other players betting patterns take less of a role in your decision making.

At beginning poker tournament levels, playing the cards can get you to the money a good deal of the time.

Playing the cards is also a good "1st gear". Its less weight on reading other players and lack of overaggressive betting mean you can avoid aggressive action early in a tournament when a lot of players are going all in.

In larger online tournaments at the $3 level, just playing the cards can occasionally get you past the bubble on a good run of cards.

I definitely had the tendancy to be a more aggressive player when I started, I was in till the end with top pair, and I lost a lot to kickers or underestimating conservative players bets.

At the $1 sit and go level on poker stars, I could get to the money and place maybe 1 in 5 tournaments just playing the cards.

The trouble with playing the cards is that the style becomes to predictable. Even though the first few hands are profitable as people haven't yet established your range, pretty soon, a table with more experienced players is going to know your bets represent your hand accurately. They will exploit this by:

1. Bluffing you out of a hand when the hand you hold does not have the required strength for a big reraise.

2. Trapping you with a stronger hand by making bets that someone with a hand your strength would call.

Any predicatability over time can lead to someone taking advantage of you, but in the initial stages of a tournament, or as the lowest of your "gears", playing the cards is a good option.

Getting back on the rails (recovering from tilt)

The best known and most obvious way of going on tilt is to get hit hard with a bad beat. Online, if you have player chat on a comment by the winner can definitely send you over the edge.

Tilt can also grow slowly, where you are making good decisions but getting beaten consistently, perhaps bad beats, perhaps just a streak of second best hands. Frustration grows as your stack shrinks.

Tilt can also occur against just one specific player, where a comment or string of beats against one player puts a huge target on their head.

Three bad things start happening when you go on tilt:

You pursue draws too aggressively.
You believe other players big bets/big calls less.
You bluff more.

One or two bad decisions in any of these categories can send you out.

If you are on tilt on an individual, you may play other players well, but start making the same three mistakes above against a single opponent.

Except for pure stubborness, most of us know when we go on tilt. There are obvious physical and emotional symptoms, and when you stare at the following hand I played:

I have J 4 off

The open cards are 10 4 7 Q A

I have bet hard all the way down to the river card with my "draw".

And the other player has A 10.

Half my stack gone.

There is no logical explanation for this kind of play except for being on tilt. Which I was.

So, whether your play, your racing heart or sweat that let you know your on tilt, as soon as you do:

1. Turn off chat if its on.
2. Play only premium easy decision hands, where if either card hits, you have a premium hand.
3. No bluffing.
4. Play the cards.

Use the time to assess the other players styles and review the big stacks hand history. Take a break for as long as you need until you can start accurately reading players again, getting back on the rails.

This technique has two advantages, the first and obvious is to plug that massive leak that could send you out.

The second less obvious is that you just changed gears. If you have been playing at the same table for a while, other players will be adapting to your probably looser playing style, and/or they will recognize that you might be on tilt. This means they are much more likely to call you when you do play a premium hand, premium flop.

As soon as you recognize the symptoms of tilt change gears. Most importantly, plug the leak. Secondly, if you do get the premium hands, and you DO get the premium flop, you can get a big payday.

Thinking two or more moves ahead

I remember starting out poker and getting a feel for the hands, knowing what was valuable, what draws were, and what cards were dead ends or traps. However, there were situations where I would execute my perfectly thought of plan, and then the other player would do something I didn't expect, and I would be stuck.

For example, I limp in with A 4 and hit my ace on the flop. I bet fairly large, and everyone but one folds. What now?

As I had not thought past the big bet move, do I bet again on the turn? How much? Do I check and fold if he bets on the turn?

If I hadn't prepared for these questions, then my responses were unsure and more often than not, I lost more chips than I had to.

So, I now KNOW what I am going to do with my hand pre flop before the flop occurs. If I have an A 3, and decide that that players I am playing the flop with are mostly conservative, and no calling stations, then the big raise occurs. What I do next is dependent on how the other players react, probably, unless I see a clear draw that could indicate why the other person called, I will fold on any turn bet.

I already know what I going to do in reaction to another players actions before they occur. This has lead to better decision making since the decision doesn't have to be on the spot and unsure.

Of course, you have to react to the other players, and be prepared for your plans to change suddenly. If you hit the flop with that Ace, but another conservative player bets into you first, then its probably time to switch plans and fold.

The other key which you will often see in beginners is not getting married to your hand, be ready to change plans. Sure, preflop a pair of Kings is a mighty hand indeed. But if you pre-flop raise is called, and an ace comes on the board, are you ready to fold? If a draw comes on the board, are you ready to change your plans now? I have seen numerous hands where pocket Aces or Kings are busted out post flop unecessarily due to one of two things:

Obvious made draws.
A normally conservative player calling or raising the pocket pairs aggressive bets.

These two key items, planning at least two moves ahead of your current move, and being prepared to change on a dime when other players actions and the flop provide new information work together to improve the decisions you make in the game.

Playing the super aggressive big stack.

Played the $11 buy in big tourney last night on pokerstars, and made two mistakes in the same hand that cost me about 70% of my stack.


Against an aggressive big stack.

A super aggressive big stack is in 50% or more of the pots, they always raise pre-flop, and will usually raise post flop. The size of their raises means the number of decisions you will make are greatly reduced, but the importance of those decisions is also greatly amplified.

Hand selection is critical. Establish range early, of course they will raise on any premium hand, but as they get more aggressive, mid to low pairs come in, suited connectors, ace anything,

And sometimes outright bluffs on 10 7 of or similar.

A super aggressive big stack will give you two criticial decisions, one pre flop, one post. Thats it. You must decide what you are going to do with BOTH decisions before you call one of their be pre-flop raises.

On drawing hands, you will just call, to see the flop.

On made hands, you will re-raise or go all in. But which hands?

That depends somewhat on their range but I definitely will go all in against a super aggressive big stack pre flop raise with a pair of 9s or higher. You are looking for the situation where your pair is at least higher than their kicker, so that you hand odds are in the 70% win range. Mid to high pairs are easy decisions against hyper aggressive big stacks, you go all in against a big pre-flop raise.

As tempting as it may seem, you don't want to go all in against the big stack with hands such as A 3 pre flop. They may have you dominated on a higher kicker, not good, most likely you will be in a drawing situation against two live cards where your odds are closer to 50/50. Pre-flop with nothing committed, those odds are not high enough for an all in.

So, you have two decisions to make, yes, you have to call their big raise, but you also have to decide BEFORE you call what you are going to do in these three situations:

1. You hit your high card.
2. You hit your low card.
3. You hit nothing.

If you have A 3 and you miss the ace (only about 20% odds on flop) what will you do when you hit the 3? Make that decision before you call pre flop.

The mistake I made last night is not making that decision pre flop. I had K J off, not a bad pre-flop CALLING hand against the over aggressive big stack. The flop hit the K. I foolishly had not thought about this situation and was not sure what to do when he bet enough to put me essentially all in (a little worried about kicker trouble).

I should have gone all in. I didn't. Second mistake as a result of the first.

So, from tonight I learned:

1. Go all in pre flop on made hands against the super aggressive big stack.
2. Decide before the flop what you are going to do after the flop if you hit on one or other of your drawing cards. Always check post flop if you hit since they will always raise. Execute your pre flop decision based on the flop.

One final word, the only time super aggressive big stack players just call big bets is when they have the nuts.

Playing inexperienced players.

The only cash game I play in right now is either the friday or saturday $10 tourney on pokerstars.

The rest of the time I play free poker.

Free poker has the most inexperienced players, 1$ buy in cash tournaments have a few, and in any large tournament from 1 - 10 dollar buy ins you will run into one or two.

Some things about these players are difficult, bluffs fall on deaf ears, called bets make little sense, especially in ratio to the size of the called bet. However, other things can usually be exploited. A little observation usually reveals:

Kickers are not usually considered on top pair. If they hit top pair no kicker they will swallow large bets through the river. Especially aces.

They will usually not check raise or even re-raise. They will just call medium to large bets with two pair. Or even a set. They undervalue most large hands up to straights.

Don't bluff them.

So, an ideal situation is where you have top pair good kicker. If they also have top pair, especially an ace, they will call large bets to the river.

Generally, if they hit almost any pair or draw, they are calling stations. They are ideal for drawing hands, as you can usually make a small enough bet to make the pot odds favourable on the draw, and they won't re-raise.

The real advantage can be exploited on calculating odds on all in moves. They make mistakes going for draws (calling large bets on gut shot straight draws), they overvalue top pairs. No need though to go all in pre flop unless you have the two top pairs, wait to see what the flop brings and act accordingly.

Against an inexperienced player, you want to see the flop. Your ability to make an educated guess on their hands will give you an advantage post flop.

If you hit big don't bother trying to trap. Instead make mid size bets doubling them to the river, look out for draws.

Beginners are much more likely to see a flushes over a straight, especially a hidden straight (5QA74). If your open ended straight draw hits, and they have a pair of aces or better, you can get all of their chips.

Of all the people you play, they are the most likely to get lucky to beat you, as a good player doesn't get themselves into situations where the odds are stacked heavily against them. The occasional two outer does hit on the river, but as with all poker, its much more important to go out on a good decision than to rely on random luck. That is the price you play for otherwise having an exploitable foe.

Going out on a bad beat

I hate bad beats.

I know, who doesn't, but its something I want to work on.

I can explain.

The last decision you make in a large tournament is generally the one you want to be strong, well thought out, and carefully played. It is the single hand you will most analyse after the fact, and making a foolish decision, not seeing a straight or a flush... will hang in your mind for days.

So, big decisions for all of your stack should always be well thought out, and, even if a trap appear successful, and all in should never be instantaneous.

Last night I was in the 10$ buy in tourney on poker stars, ended up with around 2000 players.

Two key hands.

The beginning of the tournament is following a pattern that appears to happen at all buy in levels so far, over agressive betting and all ins on long speculation or top pair no kicker. On a table of 9, you typically get 3 or 4 who will go all in for a wide range of hands. I isolate these people and establish range, what will they go all in with? What will they call all in with?

So, when I had A Q off, and one of these players re-raises 1/4 of his stack I called it. And a second of the wild group goes all in. What range do I put them on? Ace anything suited, any pair. I know the second player is going to be all in, it will be his third after a rebuy. So I am getting 1 in 3 pot odds on my A Q.

I have to accept that this is a calculated gamble, the safe way to play is hold back until your odds are dominant, then go all in. But I also thought A Q had a good chance of being ahead.

The other two Hands?

77
A 6

Not bad, almost exactly on pot odds.

The seven hits his set and a queen helps me nothing, buy back in.


Other key hand. In on button with J 4 off, all folded to me, re-raised to 3x bb, 1 caller.

Flop comes down 7 4 2 rainbow. I decide to project strength, continuation bet, and a four makes this a weak drawing hand. I bet 1/10 my stack. He calls. My plan is to get the hell out unless my pair of 4s improves. Turn card, J. I have two pair. I check, he goes in for half his stack. Decision time.

He might have top pair or an over pair. He has been over agressive, so his range would also include A 4. I highly doubt the set as I think this would have been all in on the flop after my big bet. Against all draws I am ahead but my read is this guy is overplaying.

I go all in.

He pauses, and calls. He has, 55. A pair of 5s. His odds of hitting are 20 to 1, I am 95% to 5% ahead.

One card left before I double up. He has two outs. He hits one. The 5. I am out.

I did all I could here, and was even further ahead than I had estimated when they showed, this was a great decision.

Of all the ways to go out this is precisely how I want to go. I want the burn of defeat to go away, and be replaced with a zen like calm of the knowledge of a good decision.

Or at least have it burn a little less.