Sunday, February 7, 2010

Going out on a bad beat

I hate bad beats.

I know, who doesn't, but its something I want to work on.

I can explain.

The last decision you make in a large tournament is generally the one you want to be strong, well thought out, and carefully played. It is the single hand you will most analyse after the fact, and making a foolish decision, not seeing a straight or a flush... will hang in your mind for days.

So, big decisions for all of your stack should always be well thought out, and, even if a trap appear successful, and all in should never be instantaneous.

Last night I was in the 10$ buy in tourney on poker stars, ended up with around 2000 players.

Two key hands.

The beginning of the tournament is following a pattern that appears to happen at all buy in levels so far, over agressive betting and all ins on long speculation or top pair no kicker. On a table of 9, you typically get 3 or 4 who will go all in for a wide range of hands. I isolate these people and establish range, what will they go all in with? What will they call all in with?

So, when I had A Q off, and one of these players re-raises 1/4 of his stack I called it. And a second of the wild group goes all in. What range do I put them on? Ace anything suited, any pair. I know the second player is going to be all in, it will be his third after a rebuy. So I am getting 1 in 3 pot odds on my A Q.

I have to accept that this is a calculated gamble, the safe way to play is hold back until your odds are dominant, then go all in. But I also thought A Q had a good chance of being ahead.

The other two Hands?

77
A 6

Not bad, almost exactly on pot odds.

The seven hits his set and a queen helps me nothing, buy back in.


Other key hand. In on button with J 4 off, all folded to me, re-raised to 3x bb, 1 caller.

Flop comes down 7 4 2 rainbow. I decide to project strength, continuation bet, and a four makes this a weak drawing hand. I bet 1/10 my stack. He calls. My plan is to get the hell out unless my pair of 4s improves. Turn card, J. I have two pair. I check, he goes in for half his stack. Decision time.

He might have top pair or an over pair. He has been over agressive, so his range would also include A 4. I highly doubt the set as I think this would have been all in on the flop after my big bet. Against all draws I am ahead but my read is this guy is overplaying.

I go all in.

He pauses, and calls. He has, 55. A pair of 5s. His odds of hitting are 20 to 1, I am 95% to 5% ahead.

One card left before I double up. He has two outs. He hits one. The 5. I am out.

I did all I could here, and was even further ahead than I had estimated when they showed, this was a great decision.

Of all the ways to go out this is precisely how I want to go. I want the burn of defeat to go away, and be replaced with a zen like calm of the knowledge of a good decision.

Or at least have it burn a little less.

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