Card Dead Strategy

Not much is more frustrating than a long row of weak cards that are no-where near your range. Q 7 off, lots of low cards, maybe even suited connectors but way out of position, all meaning that you are folding your hands before seeing any flops.

What do you do when you are faced with this situation, where you see 20 or more hands in a row that are significantly below your range?

The first thing to understand is, that, unless you are playing very low buy in tournaments, you are developing a tight range on the table you are playing with. Any pre-flop raises are likely to carry considerably more weight, where other players with less than premium hands are probably folding.

So, if 15 or more hands have gone by and you haven't yet seen a flop, then carefully consider which players are most likely to fold to a raise, more likely the tighter players or best case, a couple of rocks. Then raise into those players. By raising into the players most likely to fold pre-flop, you are doing two things:

1. Topping up your stack with some blinds.
2. Loosening up your tight reputation slightly.

Why is #2 so important? If you have been playing no hands for a while, and finally get good holdings, the second you raise, no-one except those with premium holdings will be calling you. Which is the opposite of what you want in this situation, you want people to call you with weaker holdings.

By combining both table reads to increase the chances of other players folding and your increasingly tight reputation thanks to dead cards, you can raise and take small pots, while ensuring all players won't necessarily fold when you do raise with strong hands.

Life in the dead zone is frustrating, but occasional pre flop raise with weaker holdings can earn you blinds, or even if you have to fold to a raise or post flop action, still ensures you will get some action when you do get a strong hand.

Showing bluffs

I was reminded in a tournament last night how showing your hand after a bluff can be a double edged sword.

The idea, of course, by showing a bluff, is twofold:

1. Put other players on tilt so that their decision making is poorer.
2. Lower a players range against you so that when you do hit they will call your big bets on second pair or lower.

The trouble with showing a bluff is that you are giving the other players free information, whether you may realize it or not, they are not just looking at the cards you bluffed with, they are also looking at what your preflop bet was, how you played through the streets, whether it was a three bullet bluff or a call to the river check raise bluff.

After a few hands go by, the player then may get a hit, a strong hand. But rarely, despite best intentions, do they bet exactly the same. Their bets on the streets might not be so large as to price people in, their river bet may be slightly lower as not to scare you away. Even their preflop bet might be altered slightly to make a call more tempting.

Usually, the player that shows bluffs play their hits differently in some way.

And when a player who habitually shows bluffs suddenly doesn't show when someone folds, you can be reasonably sure that was a hit.

The core point of this is not a specific countering strategy, but instead look at the general concept of giving more information than you have to. IF you are an expert player who has a history of succesfully manipulating players using this strategy, then of course, continue.

In a tournament last night a player showed three bluffs within 15 or so hands, and then didn't show after winning one. A quick look at the history showed the classic "bet big when I want you out of the pot and bet little when I want you in" pattern and I was able to exploit this twice. First getting out of a hand he bet small on on the flop, then calling huge bullets on my top pair second kicker a couple of hands later.

He/She may have been wondering how I could call their huge bets after just folding to smaller bets. Its simple, because they showed their bluffs I had an immediate starting point to detecting bluff vs nuts holdings.

Detecting when a player is bluffing verses having strong holdings is a key component of poker strategy. Why give anyone a shortcut to gaining this information?

Quick fix 2, Let those Aces go!

Weak Aces

Probably the most common limped hands among beginning tournament players is the weak Ace, especially if that ace is suited.

This approach to starting hands often gets those players in big trouble post flop when their ace hits. How can hitting top pair possibly be a bad thing?

The first reason is that any player who doesn't hold an ace is going to quickly fold to any action from that player. So, they limped pre-flop creating a small pot. The ace hits, they bet, everyone without an ace folds. What have they just won? A few players blinds. A small pot.

What kind of hands would call a decent bet when an ace comes on the flop? Three kinds, hands that are much better like two pair or more, hands with a better ace (higher kicker), or hands with a draw. So, in the case where someone is going to call your bet when an ace comes on the flop, they most likely have you beat. So you end up winning no pot at all. And loosing your big bet.

The best case scenario here (besides playing a fish with a huge range) is that the other player is on a draw and they call your bets and miss.

Hitting that ace on the flop therefore either means that you will win a small pot because everyone else misses, or you are in a high risk situation where you may already be behind when someone calls that strong post flop bet.

In early or middle position most of the time you should be folding that weak ace.

Strong Aces

Pre-flop a medium strong to strong ace (A 10 to AK) is a good starting hand, and, depending on other players range and aggressiveness, even good three betting hands.

Post flop, these hands are simply ace high however if they miss.

These strong drawing hands are greatly reduced in value once the the flop hits and they miss. However, particularly in the case of A K, some players are reluctant to let a hand that was so strong preflop go. Even a pair of two's here has you beat, and you have 6 outs to any pair if there are no additional draws, not positive expected value situations.

So, pre-flop, certainly raise and potentially re-raise with these hands to build a good pot. But remember that the value of these hands is if they HIT, be prepared to fold your strong ace to a missed flop the majority of the time.

Top pair vs all in

You have played your aces well, building the pot and reducing the number of players pre-flop with your raises, and the flop comes down and you hit your ace! This is great news, exactly what you are looking for.

Is this an all in calling hand however if you make a strong continuation bet and your opponent pushes all in?

Here is yet another situation where folding that Ace if you feel you are behind is a valid response.

If you are in low buy in tournaments playing with new players, and there is an obvious draw on the board, then you MAY be facing a player who is going all in on a draw, beginners especially like flush draws. Here, the correct action is a call as your aces are more likely to win over standard straight or flush draws (without additional outs).

If the board doesn't have any draws, and you are facing an all in, then the next way to determine what to do is your opponents playing style and range. If they are a true rock, a player who only plays and bets on premium hands premium hits then you may be behind and need to fold here.

If they are a tight aggressive player who's big bets are usually backed up with hands, then you have a tough decision, if you have A J do they have you out-kicked? Did they hit two pair or better? Here is another situation where you might need to fold to an all in.

Generally, if the player you are facing is to be respected, and their play has not shown big bluffs or signs of weak play, then an all in to your big bet when an ace hits on the board followed by your fold is likely to be the best response.

When your big ace hits post flop definitely bet it out with a decent bet, but be prepared to think carefully about people calling or raising those big bets, and, depending on your analysis of the other players style and range, be prepared to fold it to significant action.

Pocket Rockets

There really isn't much better in texas hold em poker than looking down at a fine set of pocket rockets, Aces. Pre flop play is easy, just keep raising every time it comes to you and call any all ins without hesitation.

And most likely, your aces will be an over pair to the board, if someone else gets a big pair as well you are likely to take a fair chunk of their chips.

But, post flop play here is not automatic, and, as in any case where you have a strong hand but a tight aggressive player is continuing to call or raise big bets, you have to give respect to other players that have earned it. And also be wary of draws.

The best case scenario is that they have an overpair to the board, as you have them way behind, but this is not the only scenario.

If a obvious draw hits (4 cards on the board one suit, 4 cards on the board all part of a straight), or a tight aggressive player who has earned your respect, raise your bets here you may have to make one of the tougher decisions in poker, and potentially fold those pocket aces.

Detecting when you are facing another overpair to a low board as opposed to something better is tricky, here the opponents playing style and range come into play for that decision.

Let those aces go!

Save some money and be prepared let aces go in these situations:

1. Pre flop with a weak ace in early or mid position (90%+).
2. Post flop with a weak ace that hits when a player you respect significantly raises you (90%).
3. Post flop when your strong ace misses, even AK (95%).
4. Post flop when your strong ace hits but you face an all in or a raise from a player you respect (depends on hand strength, A 10 most of the time, A K 50% depending greatly on read).
5. Post flop when your pair of aces is beaten by an obvious draw from a player who isn't folding (90%+), or when a player you highly respect shows calling or raising action from your big bets through all streets (50% depending greatly on read).

Quick fix 1, Stop Limping!

When players first start playing poker they often treat it like many other forms of gambling, where you don't have an influence over the result. So, they will limp in on a wide range of cards, hoping that they hit the flop much like a slot machine pull.

So what is the trouble with this approach? Why is it a money looser long term?

Firstly, limping into a pot does very little to deter other players from the pot. So, your odds of winning the hand are reduced simply because there are more players in the hand, and more players holding cards that can hit on the flop and beyond. So the first reason for not limping is that you will be facing lots of other players, and they have the same odds as you for hitting their cards, so your odds of winning the hand are reduced.

Now, what if you limp and someone raises? If you have a standard limped hand, such as Q 10, then you are likely behind here, to a stronger queen, or a hand such as A J. So the wise choice here would be to fold, as you know that your odds of winning against a better hand are considerably reduced. But the problem for most limpers is that they will call modest raises, because they are still approaching this as pure gambling, and waiting for the flop. If you play in 1$ or free tournaments you will see pots where there are multiple limpers and then 1 raiser, and all the limpers also end up calling making multi-way flopped pots. All of those limpers likely have reduced chances of winning a hand against a raiser, so folding would have been a better choice, and not limping at all an even better one.

What happens post flop to the limpers who called the raise? If one of them has a Q 10, and the queen hits on the flop, now what? Someone raised preflop so if they do have the queen, they certainly have a better one. And here is the real reason limping is so bad. If you do have the Q 10, and the queen does hit, then you are likely to loose a lot of chips finding out that someone else has a better kicker than you. Because hitting their high card is what limpers want, and its how better players quickly learn to take advantage of them.

So the real key with limping is not necessarily the small loss you take from limping and folding, its playing that weaker hand post flop. If someone has raised you pre flop, then even hitting your high card does not guarantee a win, and instead you may be loosing any chips you invest in the hand. Post flop play is another key reason limpers loose so much money, its hard to fold a hand when your top pair hits, but against a pre-flop raising player who calls or makes big bets post flop, folding would most likely be the best alternative.

If you have raised pre-flop with K Q, and your king or queen hits, then, due to two things:

1. People folding to your raise preflop
2. You having a strong kicker

You are most likely ahead in the hand. So your odds of winning are high. This is the situation you are trying to create. And the reason for not limping.

In poker, you are always trying to increase your odds of winning. This is done by hand selection, reducing the number of players by pre-flop raising, and responding to other players shows of strength appropriately.

Limping is a valid choice in some situations, but generally, limping should be the action you perform the least, fold most hands, raise with good hands, only limp very occasionally. Increase your odds of winning by kicking the limping habit.

Adapting to an unexpected action.

There are moments duringa poker game where your opponent does something unexpected, that is, anything a poker player does that appears to be outside of their normal playing style.

Some of this was previously covered in another post, where a normally very aggressive player checks the flop, and, after some time passes, just calls your bet.

This players playing style is to almost always bet first when in a pot, always bet large, and is very tough to get out of the pot. When you do hit you typically make money off of them.

When this type of player suddenly checks and then just calls, this sets off alarm bells because it is not their normal playing style.

Once you have established a normal range of playing style for a player, unexpected actions provide a lot of information.

Another change in pattern is a sudden large bet from a player who has been betting small so far or just calling small. If a player just calls a raise of 2x the big blind for example, then just a modest continuation bet, then suddenly raises large on the turn, not something you have seen from them before, this should also lead to further analysis before action.

The key is that the action has to be out of character or normal playing style. Once you have played a few hands with a player, you start to know what bet size and frequency to expect.

A rock player who only bets out or calls on hits may show they have hit when their betting pattern suddenly changes. If you have watched or played a few hands with them, then you know what to expect as you move through the streets to the river.

You raise to 2x the bb on a full table, a rock calls. Immediately, you know you are facing a medium pair up, or A J up since their range is so tight.

The flop comes and you decide to continuation bet. The rock calls. This means the rock has a pair or a good draw, this rock does not call bets with nothing.

On the turn, you check, and the rock suddenly bets out large. This is totally out of character. Every other hand you have observed or watched has them fairly passive, even with top pair, this rock likes to call or bet modestly to the river.

This is the time to pause, click "TIME" if you don't have much time left in your bank. Look carefully at the texture of the board, why is this person suddenly betting so out of character? Think about what hands would lead to this action?

One possible scenario is that they have hit their draw, straight or flush. Each players style needs to be assessed, but it is against many rocks playing style, particulary on made draws, to slow play.

Based on your knowledge of this players previous style, and of course the strength of your own cards, you can make an informed decision.

Next time you are in a hand and the other player suddenly does something out of character, stop, look at the flop and post flop cards, take some time, and think carefully about what cards the other player would have that would make sense with their course of actions.

Establishing Range on an Opponent

I remember watching a WPT tournament a while ago where a flop with 9 high caused a player who raised pre-flop to make a big continuation bet, and the opposing player to make a big raise. The player who made the continuation bet sighed, and after a while, folded. The opposing player appeared to look at the player who folded with sympathy, and told him "There just aren't too many 9's in your range".

He had correctly established that this player was not likely to raise pre-flop if he had a hand with a 9 in it, like A 9 or 8 9. So he had guessed the bet was a continuation bet bluff, and had raised.

How was this possible?

The player who took the pot had correctly established range on his opponent.

The first way to determine range is to see how many pots a player participates in overall, and how many they raise pre flop. The more hands they participate in, the lower their range is, the lower the starting requirements for their cards are.

And the opposite holds true, with "rocks" populating the other end, the less hands they participate in, the less hands they limp or raise with, the higher their range, the higher the starting requirements for their cards are.

After establishing an overall range with player participation, you try and back up your hypothesis with actual cards, seeing if a player who raises a lot has the range you suspect, confirming a tight player has high starting hand requirements.

How do you then use this information?

If you have an A 10 on in position, and a player with a wide range limps before you, you can reasonably raise with a good degree of confidence that your hand is ahead. If however a rock in early position raises, then you have to be prepared to fold your hand, either here, or even more dangerously, when an Ace hits on the flop. Because the rocks range is so tight, the only hands they would be raising with have you beat, A J minimum, high pair probably above your kicker.

By establishing a range on an opponent, you can make informed raises or folds pre flop dependent on their actions.

Another example is with a pair of 10's. If a loose player acting before you raises, you may choose to make a big re-raise here, as a pair of 10's is ahead of much of their range. If a tight player raises, then you may still choose to call, but do so with the knowledge that they most likely have overcards to your pair...

After establishing an overall range in the first few rounds of a tournament, you start to refine that range to the situation, as peoples ranges typically lowers with position, and good players range adjusts dependent on whom they play.

I remember starting playing poker for cash and occasionally being frustrated by the fact that other hands were being won on third pair, but my top pair was either quickly being folded to, or superior hands were calling me down.

My opponents had correctly established a tighter range on me, and so knew that action from me, unlike action from some opponents, meant they were much more likely to be up against a strong hand.

Eventually you establish individual range on a player, dependent on situation and position. You then make pre and post flop choices based on your knowledge of their likely hands.

The only caveat to all of this is that sometimes loose players also get strong hands, and that, while you would normally be miles ahead calling an all in post flop on your top pair second kicker, sometimes they do have strong hands. Like all things in poker, recognize that a loose player getting a strong hand only happens occasionally, normally aggressive play with strong holdings results in profit against a looser players wider range.

Coin Flips

Coin flips are an inevitable part of any poker players decision making process. While we always attempt to be as ahead as possible when putting our chips on the line, we will be facing all in decisions and other choices that may put a significant portion of your stack in the middle on a potential coin flip.

You can attempt to avoid coin flips by only calling with pairs and attempting to hit sets, as well as other strategies, but, over time, this is a money loosing proposition. Players who are prepared to push or bet big on coin flips are going to push you out of pots and take any chips you have committed to the pot up until this point.

Since folding to all coin flips over time is a money loosing strategy, there has to be an approach that optimizes the chances of winning, or at least improves your odds.

If you given the opportunity to flip a coin for cash, you win and recieve 1$, loose and owe 1$, over time you would be very close to even.

If you however knew that, out of 100 flips, 54 were likely to be heads, due to a flaw in the coin, then, particularly if you were having 100's or even 1000
s of flips, you would always choose heads. Because you know that eventually, you will come out ahead.

The same holds true in poker. If every time you are in a coin flip situation, you attempt to at least be slightly ahead, over 100's or even 1000's of coin flip decisions, you will come out ahead.

So, hopefully by now you know that a pair of 10's or higher is a favourite over A K, 57 to 43 percent. So, if you know you are facing AK or lower non paired, you are ahead.

If you have a pair of 8's vs A K, you are a 55% favourite. Even a pair of 2's hovers just above a 52% advantage.

So in all of the above situations its mathmatically correct to call or push with your pair and be slightly ahead.

This can also lead to a situation where you may choose to fold an A K or A Q if you know you are facing a pair of 10s or higher.

Usually, the value of two cards being suited adds little to the overall value of the starting hand, as it only increases your odds of winning (by hitting a flush by the river) by 2%.

However, in the extremely close situations where you want to determine if you are ahead or have pot odds to call in a coin flip, that 2% can be just enough to give you a mathmatically correct call. So a J 10 suited is close enough to a true coin flip with an under pair that its fine to call an all in if you feel that is what you are facing.

So, if your A K is suited, the 55% advantage a pair of 8's has over you shrinks to between 52% and 53%, making a call or push when combined with pot odds the correct choice.

Of course, the worst nighmare of calling or pushing with a pair is facing an overpair. Here you are at a distinct disadvantage hovering in the 80% + range.

Knowing the details of how different combinations of cards provide advantage is useful in coin fip situations. Of course, knowing the other players calling or raising range is the other vital component to making the correct decision, you may push or fold a pair of 10s depending on who is raising in front of you or three betting your raise and be correct for that situation either way.

Knowing when you are slightly ahead in coin flips and not being afraid to call when you feel strongly you are is a key winning strategy in poker. Over time, succeeding at being ahead the majority of the time in coin flips is profitable. Attempting to avoid them every time is not.