Coin Flips

Coin flips are an inevitable part of any poker players decision making process. While we always attempt to be as ahead as possible when putting our chips on the line, we will be facing all in decisions and other choices that may put a significant portion of your stack in the middle on a potential coin flip.

You can attempt to avoid coin flips by only calling with pairs and attempting to hit sets, as well as other strategies, but, over time, this is a money loosing proposition. Players who are prepared to push or bet big on coin flips are going to push you out of pots and take any chips you have committed to the pot up until this point.

Since folding to all coin flips over time is a money loosing strategy, there has to be an approach that optimizes the chances of winning, or at least improves your odds.

If you given the opportunity to flip a coin for cash, you win and recieve 1$, loose and owe 1$, over time you would be very close to even.

If you however knew that, out of 100 flips, 54 were likely to be heads, due to a flaw in the coin, then, particularly if you were having 100's or even 1000
s of flips, you would always choose heads. Because you know that eventually, you will come out ahead.

The same holds true in poker. If every time you are in a coin flip situation, you attempt to at least be slightly ahead, over 100's or even 1000's of coin flip decisions, you will come out ahead.

So, hopefully by now you know that a pair of 10's or higher is a favourite over A K, 57 to 43 percent. So, if you know you are facing AK or lower non paired, you are ahead.

If you have a pair of 8's vs A K, you are a 55% favourite. Even a pair of 2's hovers just above a 52% advantage.

So in all of the above situations its mathmatically correct to call or push with your pair and be slightly ahead.

This can also lead to a situation where you may choose to fold an A K or A Q if you know you are facing a pair of 10s or higher.

Usually, the value of two cards being suited adds little to the overall value of the starting hand, as it only increases your odds of winning (by hitting a flush by the river) by 2%.

However, in the extremely close situations where you want to determine if you are ahead or have pot odds to call in a coin flip, that 2% can be just enough to give you a mathmatically correct call. So a J 10 suited is close enough to a true coin flip with an under pair that its fine to call an all in if you feel that is what you are facing.

So, if your A K is suited, the 55% advantage a pair of 8's has over you shrinks to between 52% and 53%, making a call or push when combined with pot odds the correct choice.

Of course, the worst nighmare of calling or pushing with a pair is facing an overpair. Here you are at a distinct disadvantage hovering in the 80% + range.

Knowing the details of how different combinations of cards provide advantage is useful in coin fip situations. Of course, knowing the other players calling or raising range is the other vital component to making the correct decision, you may push or fold a pair of 10s depending on who is raising in front of you or three betting your raise and be correct for that situation either way.

Knowing when you are slightly ahead in coin flips and not being afraid to call when you feel strongly you are is a key winning strategy in poker. Over time, succeeding at being ahead the majority of the time in coin flips is profitable. Attempting to avoid them every time is not.