Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Medium pairs

Medium pairs are one of the tougher hands to play in poker. Not easy to fold in early position like a pair of 3's, not easy to make a decent raise or three bet as with 10s and up and know how to play post flop.

While medium pairs do have a slight advantage over monster non paired hands such as AK or AQ, they are not dominant over any hand until at least one of your opponents cards is lower than your pair, or, best case scenario, they have an under pair.

So, if other players aren't maniacs, someone calling or raising you with your medium pair probably has two overcards.

This is why post flop play is so challenging. If you have a pair of 8s, raise to 3x the big blind and get called, the flop is very likely to have at least one over card. So, unlike an overpair to a board, is not so clear what to do here. You have to rely on your reads on the other players range, what bet size you feel would get them out of the pot with anything but top pair, and whether they are likely to call on worse than top pair.

Sure, its nice to know that your pair of 8s is most likely ahead of most pre flop hands out there, but how helpful is that on the river facing a bet with 2 or more overcards on the board?

The only solution to post flop play with pairs, except in the case of hitting a set, is to attempt to use what you know about the other players style and range to get them out of the hand, as the further you get into the hand the tougher decisions get if more overcards show up.

There are a couple of ways to attempt to optimize EV on medium pairs. One is to raise fairly strongly pre-flop more than you usually do, 4x bb into an unraised pot, for example. This will mean more opponents fold giving you a higher chance of scooping blinds and anti's pre flop, and that callers have truly strong hands, so that aces or kings on the flop are easier to fold to.

Another is to use it as a blind stealer, making a huge raise on lots of limped pre flop hands, as you are very likely to be ahead on a limped family pot.

Another opportunity exists for medium pairs on preflop all ins by small stacks. Here, the risk to you in a potential coin flip situation is minimized by having the other stack so small, and small stacks all in range does include hands with aces that might have kickers lower than your pair, putting you in a dominant situation. So, small stack all ins are well called with a medium pair.

And of course, as a small stack yourself, an all in pre-flop puts you in a likely slightly ahead coin flip situation, a risk you are willing to take as the small stack to either double up or steal blinds.

Playing medium pairs can be really tough post flop, as there are almost certainly one or more overcards on the board. Here, you have to rely on reads and other poker tells to attempt to win the hand. However, pre-flop play with pairs can be optimized to increase expected value, and medium pairs are very good hands to call small stacks with, as well as push all in when you are the small stack yourself.

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