The proposal

Here is the set up. You are participating in a large poker tournament with a 10 000 buy in. After about 3 hours in, you are doing ok, about an average stack.

You take a bathroom break, and on the way back, a friend makes a proposal. He will give you direct odds on winning the next hand. If you win, you win $9000. If you loose, you owe him $1000.

As all players do, you think you are a slightly better poker player than most at the table, so you take the bet.

You sit back at the table, and wait to get dealt back in. Your the third to act, your hole cards are dealt to you.

They are 7 2 off.

Have you just lost $1000 dollars?

If you are playing the cards, or the odds, then it would certainly look like it.

However, if you have decent reads on the other players, their may still be a chance.

One of the most significant changes a poker player goes through when their skills increase is they stop playing there own cards, and start playing the other players.

W0uld you be able to win a hand if you didn't look at your hole cards? Would you be confident enough in your reads to know when there is opportunity?

So, let's run through one possible scenario with that 7 2 off.

Firstly, you are in early position, so, as long as your table rep is decently tight, you would raise 3 to 5x the big blind.

This is your first opportunity to win the bet.

However, this is a nine handed table with only two folders, so you are likely to get at least one caller.

So, what range would the other players call your big bet with? Your reads on their tighness or looseness are invaluable here, as well as your own table rep.

We are also looking at the flop texture, what are likely hits for someone calling the pre-flop raise?

The first step is of course to carefully observe the other players reaction to the flop. Did he hit, did he miss?

The flop comes down 9 Q 4 rainbow.

If you are positive on your read of weakness, then you can bet now and win the hand.

If you are not so certain, you should analyse the flop, and assess what bet size would accomplish the following two things?

1. Loosing the least money possible if they have the queen.
2. Betting sufficiently high so that any player with A 9 or A 4 would fold.

Once you have established that bet size, somewhere between half and all of the pot, you make the bet.

And there is your second chance at winning your buddies money.

I sometimes have to remember that the reactions of the other players to the flop, and the betting patterns they display, are actually MORE important than the cards you hold. In order to be successful at poker, which I am still working on, you need to win hands where you do not necessarily have the best cards.

By stopping the focus on our own cards, and putting the focus where it should be, the other players, you can win significantly more hands than playing the cards alone.