Predicting a players behaviour (online reads)

There are three different pieces of information you can use to predict what a players actions may mean. They include in order of importance:

1. Players prior history.
2. Size of bet.
3. Speed of bet.

And possibly in a distant fourth, online chat.

The most important way to accurately predict what players actions mean is to review their actions in prior hands, both by observing and reviewing hand history. On all ins, you can follow how the player bets pre-flop and start to establish pre-flop range. Then watch how they bet through the hand, do they bluff? Did they bet when they hit? Did they slow play?

What you are trying to establish is a baseline, normal behaviour for that player. You are attempting to establish both a range of cards that this player considers playable, and the range of bets they make when they hit or bluff.

How quickly does this player make bets? Does it vary greatly? What hands do they hold when they bet out quickly?

All of this information is combined with their current actions in an attempt to predict the players cards.

One example of reading bet size is a hand I had recently where I hadn't hit on the flop at all, but a super aggressive big stack had predictably and aggressively raised both pre flop and now on post flop. An overbet. I knew from hand history that he would bet out on almost any flop, but the bet was over one half my stack size. I called and watched to see what happened on the turn.

First off, the decision took a long time. How long would you take when your the big stack to make a decision if you had any real strength? Secondly, the size of the bet was smaller than the flop bet, 1/2 the size. It seemed feeble. I re-raised all in on nothing and won that pot.

Of course, sometimes reads are way off, or sometimes you get the odd river donk, but, I hope, over the long term, spending the time attempting to establish baseline behaviour will result in good decision making.