Monday, December 27, 2010

Looking for opportunities

As you move beyond basic poker play, understanding the value of pairs, knowing odds on draws, adapting your play to other players, you rely on the actual strength of cards less and less as you start to seek opportunities.

You begin to increase your winnings not by having stronger cards, but by looking for other signs that indicate you may still be able to win the hand.

Rather than sticking to any specific playing strategy, you being to adapt your play to the playing style on the table, and the players on that table.

Poker moves from a game about cards to a game about players, seeking opportunities to lighten players of their stack.

The easiest players to play are rocks, conservative players who always wait for premium hands and only bet or call bets when they hit.

If you are on the button or small blind, and a rock is sitting in the big blind, any raise will take down the blinds from that player unless they have a hand. It doesn't matter what you have in your hand, a rock in the blinds is a clear steal indicator.

Even if they call, if the flop does not have an ace or two or more face cards, then the odds are they have missed. A modest continuation bet here will also take the pot away from the rock. Any calls or raises and you are facing a strong hand. So time to get out unless you have the same.

Another key area, particularly in the starting stages of a tournament, is to establish over aggressive player all in range. Of course, if you have either of the big pairs, you are going to be calling an all in from any player. If there is a player who is aggressively looking to double up however, you spend the time establishing range on this player, and getting ready to call their all in on a strong pair like 9s or 10s.

The classic continuation bet trap works as follows. An aggressive player makes a pre-flop raise. You call. The flop comes down. The aggressive player makes a continuation bet. You call. They check on the turn. You make a bet the same size as their continuation bet. They fold. This is another opportunity to seek. Is there a player who makes continuation bets every time they re-flop raise? If so, this technique can be used to take their chips when they miss.

Increasing your winnings by seeking opportunities marks the movement from a poker player relying on luck and good cards to a poker player relying on skill. In extreme cases, I have doubled up over time or more without having a single hand. Of course, the players I am playing are what provide this opportunity, careful analysis can increase your winning ratio.

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