I remember watching a WPT tournament a while ago where a flop with 9 high caused a player who raised pre-flop to make a big continuation bet, and the opposing player to make a big raise. The player who made the continuation bet sighed, and after a while, folded. The opposing player appeared to look at the player who folded with sympathy, and told him "There just aren't too many 9's in your range".
He had correctly established that this player was not likely to raise pre-flop if he had a hand with a 9 in it, like A 9 or 8 9. So he had guessed the bet was a continuation bet bluff, and had raised.
How was this possible?
The player who took the pot had correctly established range on his opponent.
The first way to determine range is to see how many pots a player participates in overall, and how many they raise pre flop. The more hands they participate in, the lower their range is, the lower the starting requirements for their cards are.
And the opposite holds true, with "rocks" populating the other end, the less hands they participate in, the less hands they limp or raise with, the higher their range, the higher the starting requirements for their cards are.
After establishing an overall range with player participation, you try and back up your hypothesis with actual cards, seeing if a player who raises a lot has the range you suspect, confirming a tight player has high starting hand requirements.
How do you then use this information?
If you have an A 10 on in position, and a player with a wide range limps before you, you can reasonably raise with a good degree of confidence that your hand is ahead. If however a rock in early position raises, then you have to be prepared to fold your hand, either here, or even more dangerously, when an Ace hits on the flop. Because the rocks range is so tight, the only hands they would be raising with have you beat, A J minimum, high pair probably above your kicker.
By establishing a range on an opponent, you can make informed raises or folds pre flop dependent on their actions.
Another example is with a pair of 10's. If a loose player acting before you raises, you may choose to make a big re-raise here, as a pair of 10's is ahead of much of their range. If a tight player raises, then you may still choose to call, but do so with the knowledge that they most likely have overcards to your pair...
After establishing an overall range in the first few rounds of a tournament, you start to refine that range to the situation, as peoples ranges typically lowers with position, and good players range adjusts dependent on whom they play.
I remember starting playing poker for cash and occasionally being frustrated by the fact that other hands were being won on third pair, but my top pair was either quickly being folded to, or superior hands were calling me down.
My opponents had correctly established a tighter range on me, and so knew that action from me, unlike action from some opponents, meant they were much more likely to be up against a strong hand.
Eventually you establish individual range on a player, dependent on situation and position. You then make pre and post flop choices based on your knowledge of their likely hands.
The only caveat to all of this is that sometimes loose players also get strong hands, and that, while you would normally be miles ahead calling an all in post flop on your top pair second kicker, sometimes they do have strong hands. Like all things in poker, recognize that a loose player getting a strong hand only happens occasionally, normally aggressive play with strong holdings results in profit against a looser players wider range.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Coin Flips
Coin flips are an inevitable part of any poker players decision making process. While we always attempt to be as ahead as possible when putting our chips on the line, we will be facing all in decisions and other choices that may put a significant portion of your stack in the middle on a potential coin flip.
You can attempt to avoid coin flips by only calling with pairs and attempting to hit sets, as well as other strategies, but, over time, this is a money loosing proposition. Players who are prepared to push or bet big on coin flips are going to push you out of pots and take any chips you have committed to the pot up until this point.
Since folding to all coin flips over time is a money loosing strategy, there has to be an approach that optimizes the chances of winning, or at least improves your odds.
If you given the opportunity to flip a coin for cash, you win and recieve 1$, loose and owe 1$, over time you would be very close to even.
If you however knew that, out of 100 flips, 54 were likely to be heads, due to a flaw in the coin, then, particularly if you were having 100's or even 1000
s of flips, you would always choose heads. Because you know that eventually, you will come out ahead.
The same holds true in poker. If every time you are in a coin flip situation, you attempt to at least be slightly ahead, over 100's or even 1000's of coin flip decisions, you will come out ahead.
So, hopefully by now you know that a pair of 10's or higher is a favourite over A K, 57 to 43 percent. So, if you know you are facing AK or lower non paired, you are ahead.
If you have a pair of 8's vs A K, you are a 55% favourite. Even a pair of 2's hovers just above a 52% advantage.
So in all of the above situations its mathmatically correct to call or push with your pair and be slightly ahead.
This can also lead to a situation where you may choose to fold an A K or A Q if you know you are facing a pair of 10s or higher.
Usually, the value of two cards being suited adds little to the overall value of the starting hand, as it only increases your odds of winning (by hitting a flush by the river) by 2%.
However, in the extremely close situations where you want to determine if you are ahead or have pot odds to call in a coin flip, that 2% can be just enough to give you a mathmatically correct call. So a J 10 suited is close enough to a true coin flip with an under pair that its fine to call an all in if you feel that is what you are facing.
So, if your A K is suited, the 55% advantage a pair of 8's has over you shrinks to between 52% and 53%, making a call or push when combined with pot odds the correct choice.
Of course, the worst nighmare of calling or pushing with a pair is facing an overpair. Here you are at a distinct disadvantage hovering in the 80% + range.
Knowing the details of how different combinations of cards provide advantage is useful in coin fip situations. Of course, knowing the other players calling or raising range is the other vital component to making the correct decision, you may push or fold a pair of 10s depending on who is raising in front of you or three betting your raise and be correct for that situation either way.
Knowing when you are slightly ahead in coin flips and not being afraid to call when you feel strongly you are is a key winning strategy in poker. Over time, succeeding at being ahead the majority of the time in coin flips is profitable. Attempting to avoid them every time is not.
You can attempt to avoid coin flips by only calling with pairs and attempting to hit sets, as well as other strategies, but, over time, this is a money loosing proposition. Players who are prepared to push or bet big on coin flips are going to push you out of pots and take any chips you have committed to the pot up until this point.
Since folding to all coin flips over time is a money loosing strategy, there has to be an approach that optimizes the chances of winning, or at least improves your odds.
If you given the opportunity to flip a coin for cash, you win and recieve 1$, loose and owe 1$, over time you would be very close to even.
If you however knew that, out of 100 flips, 54 were likely to be heads, due to a flaw in the coin, then, particularly if you were having 100's or even 1000
s of flips, you would always choose heads. Because you know that eventually, you will come out ahead.
The same holds true in poker. If every time you are in a coin flip situation, you attempt to at least be slightly ahead, over 100's or even 1000's of coin flip decisions, you will come out ahead.
So, hopefully by now you know that a pair of 10's or higher is a favourite over A K, 57 to 43 percent. So, if you know you are facing AK or lower non paired, you are ahead.
If you have a pair of 8's vs A K, you are a 55% favourite. Even a pair of 2's hovers just above a 52% advantage.
So in all of the above situations its mathmatically correct to call or push with your pair and be slightly ahead.
This can also lead to a situation where you may choose to fold an A K or A Q if you know you are facing a pair of 10s or higher.
Usually, the value of two cards being suited adds little to the overall value of the starting hand, as it only increases your odds of winning (by hitting a flush by the river) by 2%.
However, in the extremely close situations where you want to determine if you are ahead or have pot odds to call in a coin flip, that 2% can be just enough to give you a mathmatically correct call. So a J 10 suited is close enough to a true coin flip with an under pair that its fine to call an all in if you feel that is what you are facing.
So, if your A K is suited, the 55% advantage a pair of 8's has over you shrinks to between 52% and 53%, making a call or push when combined with pot odds the correct choice.
Of course, the worst nighmare of calling or pushing with a pair is facing an overpair. Here you are at a distinct disadvantage hovering in the 80% + range.
Knowing the details of how different combinations of cards provide advantage is useful in coin fip situations. Of course, knowing the other players calling or raising range is the other vital component to making the correct decision, you may push or fold a pair of 10s depending on who is raising in front of you or three betting your raise and be correct for that situation either way.
Knowing when you are slightly ahead in coin flips and not being afraid to call when you feel strongly you are is a key winning strategy in poker. Over time, succeeding at being ahead the majority of the time in coin flips is profitable. Attempting to avoid them every time is not.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Medium pairs
Medium pairs are one of the tougher hands to play in poker. Not easy to fold in early position like a pair of 3's, not easy to make a decent raise or three bet as with 10s and up and know how to play post flop.
While medium pairs do have a slight advantage over monster non paired hands such as AK or AQ, they are not dominant over any hand until at least one of your opponents cards is lower than your pair, or, best case scenario, they have an under pair.
So, if other players aren't maniacs, someone calling or raising you with your medium pair probably has two overcards.
This is why post flop play is so challenging. If you have a pair of 8s, raise to 3x the big blind and get called, the flop is very likely to have at least one over card. So, unlike an overpair to a board, is not so clear what to do here. You have to rely on your reads on the other players range, what bet size you feel would get them out of the pot with anything but top pair, and whether they are likely to call on worse than top pair.
Sure, its nice to know that your pair of 8s is most likely ahead of most pre flop hands out there, but how helpful is that on the river facing a bet with 2 or more overcards on the board?
The only solution to post flop play with pairs, except in the case of hitting a set, is to attempt to use what you know about the other players style and range to get them out of the hand, as the further you get into the hand the tougher decisions get if more overcards show up.
There are a couple of ways to attempt to optimize EV on medium pairs. One is to raise fairly strongly pre-flop more than you usually do, 4x bb into an unraised pot, for example. This will mean more opponents fold giving you a higher chance of scooping blinds and anti's pre flop, and that callers have truly strong hands, so that aces or kings on the flop are easier to fold to.
Another is to use it as a blind stealer, making a huge raise on lots of limped pre flop hands, as you are very likely to be ahead on a limped family pot.
Another opportunity exists for medium pairs on preflop all ins by small stacks. Here, the risk to you in a potential coin flip situation is minimized by having the other stack so small, and small stacks all in range does include hands with aces that might have kickers lower than your pair, putting you in a dominant situation. So, small stack all ins are well called with a medium pair.
And of course, as a small stack yourself, an all in pre-flop puts you in a likely slightly ahead coin flip situation, a risk you are willing to take as the small stack to either double up or steal blinds.
Playing medium pairs can be really tough post flop, as there are almost certainly one or more overcards on the board. Here, you have to rely on reads and other poker tells to attempt to win the hand. However, pre-flop play with pairs can be optimized to increase expected value, and medium pairs are very good hands to call small stacks with, as well as push all in when you are the small stack yourself.
While medium pairs do have a slight advantage over monster non paired hands such as AK or AQ, they are not dominant over any hand until at least one of your opponents cards is lower than your pair, or, best case scenario, they have an under pair.
So, if other players aren't maniacs, someone calling or raising you with your medium pair probably has two overcards.
This is why post flop play is so challenging. If you have a pair of 8s, raise to 3x the big blind and get called, the flop is very likely to have at least one over card. So, unlike an overpair to a board, is not so clear what to do here. You have to rely on your reads on the other players range, what bet size you feel would get them out of the pot with anything but top pair, and whether they are likely to call on worse than top pair.
Sure, its nice to know that your pair of 8s is most likely ahead of most pre flop hands out there, but how helpful is that on the river facing a bet with 2 or more overcards on the board?
The only solution to post flop play with pairs, except in the case of hitting a set, is to attempt to use what you know about the other players style and range to get them out of the hand, as the further you get into the hand the tougher decisions get if more overcards show up.
There are a couple of ways to attempt to optimize EV on medium pairs. One is to raise fairly strongly pre-flop more than you usually do, 4x bb into an unraised pot, for example. This will mean more opponents fold giving you a higher chance of scooping blinds and anti's pre flop, and that callers have truly strong hands, so that aces or kings on the flop are easier to fold to.
Another is to use it as a blind stealer, making a huge raise on lots of limped pre flop hands, as you are very likely to be ahead on a limped family pot.
Another opportunity exists for medium pairs on preflop all ins by small stacks. Here, the risk to you in a potential coin flip situation is minimized by having the other stack so small, and small stacks all in range does include hands with aces that might have kickers lower than your pair, putting you in a dominant situation. So, small stack all ins are well called with a medium pair.
And of course, as a small stack yourself, an all in pre-flop puts you in a likely slightly ahead coin flip situation, a risk you are willing to take as the small stack to either double up or steal blinds.
Playing medium pairs can be really tough post flop, as there are almost certainly one or more overcards on the board. Here, you have to rely on reads and other poker tells to attempt to win the hand. However, pre-flop play with pairs can be optimized to increase expected value, and medium pairs are very good hands to call small stacks with, as well as push all in when you are the small stack yourself.
Exploiting Tilt
We have all probably both observed the effects of tilt, both on players we play and even on ourselves. When you observe behaviour that is indicative of tilt, can it be exploited? Of course, the pro's wouldn't spend so much time attempting to put Phil Helmuth on tilt if it didn't seriously weaken his play.
So, what happens? How can it be exploited?
Perhaps suprisingly, a tilted players starting hand range usually doesn't vary significantly unless they are on tilt against just one player. So, usually, when a tilted player calls or raises, they have decent holdings.
An occasional beginner or particularly weak player will push on their next hand if they have just been put on tilt, this is a different situation where you need to be comfortable with your read and potential opponent range. Most experienced players will have enough control on their initial hand selection to not allow emotion to lower their range however.
A tilted player will sometimes make rediculous raises pre-flop, such as 10x the big blind on a previous bet of double the big blind, this is definitely an indicator of tilt, but it is not necessarily an indicator of a weak hand.
The place where tilt can really be exploited is when a tilted player hits on the flop. Once they are in a pot, and have hit, they are very tough to get out of the pot. They may also pursue draws much more aggressively than is mathmatically sensible given pot odds and the odds of hitting a draw.
So, if you are playing your cards correctly and have also hit on the flop, with a big hit, you can probably get all of their chips.
On a recent hand on Poker after Dark, Phil Helmuth had been complaining of bad beats and bad luck for a few hands, and had been shown a couple of bluffs, he was exhibiting the classic signs of tilt.
On one hand, he is dealt AA and decides to slow play, not necessarilly a bad decision at this point. He then faces a raise and two callers. At this point, instead of continuing his weak hand ruse, he reraises at least 5x the last raise for 10 000 dollar raise on a barely 3000 dollar pot. This of course quickly led to all of his opponents folding. Continuing his ruse would have been more lucrative as he had every possible starting hand dominated. But he was on tilt.
So, a few hands later, he makes a raise with AK (again, pre flop, most players on their first play play the hand correctly). He has one or two callers, and a King hits on the flop. He makes a big bet, and is called by one player. As he is on tilt, it is not likely that he will be folding the hand any time soon.
On the turn, he makes another big bet, and his opponent makes a huge raise.
Now why would anyone make a huge raise on a tilted player when they so obviously demonstrate through actions that they have a big hand? Its pretty close to suicidal to try a huge bluff on a tilted player, you have to deal with the "I just don't give a crap" factor when they perform a desperation hope call.
Phil barely hesitated pushing all in on top pair top kicker. And was beat with two pair. He freaked out and quit the game.
The keys here are knowing that a tilted player is not necessarily playing with garbage hands, they are instead going to completely, thoroughly and stubbornly overplay any hands they do get. Bluffing is not recommended, instead play well, wait for the hit when you play them, and take their chips.
So, what happens? How can it be exploited?
Perhaps suprisingly, a tilted players starting hand range usually doesn't vary significantly unless they are on tilt against just one player. So, usually, when a tilted player calls or raises, they have decent holdings.
An occasional beginner or particularly weak player will push on their next hand if they have just been put on tilt, this is a different situation where you need to be comfortable with your read and potential opponent range. Most experienced players will have enough control on their initial hand selection to not allow emotion to lower their range however.
A tilted player will sometimes make rediculous raises pre-flop, such as 10x the big blind on a previous bet of double the big blind, this is definitely an indicator of tilt, but it is not necessarily an indicator of a weak hand.
The place where tilt can really be exploited is when a tilted player hits on the flop. Once they are in a pot, and have hit, they are very tough to get out of the pot. They may also pursue draws much more aggressively than is mathmatically sensible given pot odds and the odds of hitting a draw.
So, if you are playing your cards correctly and have also hit on the flop, with a big hit, you can probably get all of their chips.
On a recent hand on Poker after Dark, Phil Helmuth had been complaining of bad beats and bad luck for a few hands, and had been shown a couple of bluffs, he was exhibiting the classic signs of tilt.
On one hand, he is dealt AA and decides to slow play, not necessarilly a bad decision at this point. He then faces a raise and two callers. At this point, instead of continuing his weak hand ruse, he reraises at least 5x the last raise for 10 000 dollar raise on a barely 3000 dollar pot. This of course quickly led to all of his opponents folding. Continuing his ruse would have been more lucrative as he had every possible starting hand dominated. But he was on tilt.
So, a few hands later, he makes a raise with AK (again, pre flop, most players on their first play play the hand correctly). He has one or two callers, and a King hits on the flop. He makes a big bet, and is called by one player. As he is on tilt, it is not likely that he will be folding the hand any time soon.
On the turn, he makes another big bet, and his opponent makes a huge raise.
Now why would anyone make a huge raise on a tilted player when they so obviously demonstrate through actions that they have a big hand? Its pretty close to suicidal to try a huge bluff on a tilted player, you have to deal with the "I just don't give a crap" factor when they perform a desperation hope call.
Phil barely hesitated pushing all in on top pair top kicker. And was beat with two pair. He freaked out and quit the game.
The keys here are knowing that a tilted player is not necessarily playing with garbage hands, they are instead going to completely, thoroughly and stubbornly overplay any hands they do get. Bluffing is not recommended, instead play well, wait for the hit when you play them, and take their chips.
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