Not much is more frustrating than a long row of weak cards that are no-where near your range. Q 7 off, lots of low cards, maybe even suited connectors but way out of position, all meaning that you are folding your hands before seeing any flops.
What do you do when you are faced with this situation, where you see 20 or more hands in a row that are significantly below your range?
The first thing to understand is, that, unless you are playing very low buy in tournaments, you are developing a tight range on the table you are playing with. Any pre-flop raises are likely to carry considerably more weight, where other players with less than premium hands are probably folding.
So, if 15 or more hands have gone by and you haven't yet seen a flop, then carefully consider which players are most likely to fold to a raise, more likely the tighter players or best case, a couple of rocks. Then raise into those players. By raising into the players most likely to fold pre-flop, you are doing two things:
1. Topping up your stack with some blinds.
2. Loosening up your tight reputation slightly.
Why is #2 so important? If you have been playing no hands for a while, and finally get good holdings, the second you raise, no-one except those with premium holdings will be calling you. Which is the opposite of what you want in this situation, you want people to call you with weaker holdings.
By combining both table reads to increase the chances of other players folding and your increasingly tight reputation thanks to dead cards, you can raise and take small pots, while ensuring all players won't necessarily fold when you do raise with strong hands.
Life in the dead zone is frustrating, but occasional pre flop raise with weaker holdings can earn you blinds, or even if you have to fold to a raise or post flop action, still ensures you will get some action when you do get a strong hand.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Friday, September 30, 2011
Showing bluffs
I was reminded in a tournament last night how showing your hand after a bluff can be a double edged sword.
The idea, of course, by showing a bluff, is twofold:
1. Put other players on tilt so that their decision making is poorer.
2. Lower a players range against you so that when you do hit they will call your big bets on second pair or lower.
The trouble with showing a bluff is that you are giving the other players free information, whether you may realize it or not, they are not just looking at the cards you bluffed with, they are also looking at what your preflop bet was, how you played through the streets, whether it was a three bullet bluff or a call to the river check raise bluff.
After a few hands go by, the player then may get a hit, a strong hand. But rarely, despite best intentions, do they bet exactly the same. Their bets on the streets might not be so large as to price people in, their river bet may be slightly lower as not to scare you away. Even their preflop bet might be altered slightly to make a call more tempting.
Usually, the player that shows bluffs play their hits differently in some way.
And when a player who habitually shows bluffs suddenly doesn't show when someone folds, you can be reasonably sure that was a hit.
The core point of this is not a specific countering strategy, but instead look at the general concept of giving more information than you have to. IF you are an expert player who has a history of succesfully manipulating players using this strategy, then of course, continue.
In a tournament last night a player showed three bluffs within 15 or so hands, and then didn't show after winning one. A quick look at the history showed the classic "bet big when I want you out of the pot and bet little when I want you in" pattern and I was able to exploit this twice. First getting out of a hand he bet small on on the flop, then calling huge bullets on my top pair second kicker a couple of hands later.
He/She may have been wondering how I could call their huge bets after just folding to smaller bets. Its simple, because they showed their bluffs I had an immediate starting point to detecting bluff vs nuts holdings.
Detecting when a player is bluffing verses having strong holdings is a key component of poker strategy. Why give anyone a shortcut to gaining this information?
The idea, of course, by showing a bluff, is twofold:
1. Put other players on tilt so that their decision making is poorer.
2. Lower a players range against you so that when you do hit they will call your big bets on second pair or lower.
The trouble with showing a bluff is that you are giving the other players free information, whether you may realize it or not, they are not just looking at the cards you bluffed with, they are also looking at what your preflop bet was, how you played through the streets, whether it was a three bullet bluff or a call to the river check raise bluff.
After a few hands go by, the player then may get a hit, a strong hand. But rarely, despite best intentions, do they bet exactly the same. Their bets on the streets might not be so large as to price people in, their river bet may be slightly lower as not to scare you away. Even their preflop bet might be altered slightly to make a call more tempting.
Usually, the player that shows bluffs play their hits differently in some way.
And when a player who habitually shows bluffs suddenly doesn't show when someone folds, you can be reasonably sure that was a hit.
The core point of this is not a specific countering strategy, but instead look at the general concept of giving more information than you have to. IF you are an expert player who has a history of succesfully manipulating players using this strategy, then of course, continue.
In a tournament last night a player showed three bluffs within 15 or so hands, and then didn't show after winning one. A quick look at the history showed the classic "bet big when I want you out of the pot and bet little when I want you in" pattern and I was able to exploit this twice. First getting out of a hand he bet small on on the flop, then calling huge bullets on my top pair second kicker a couple of hands later.
He/She may have been wondering how I could call their huge bets after just folding to smaller bets. Its simple, because they showed their bluffs I had an immediate starting point to detecting bluff vs nuts holdings.
Detecting when a player is bluffing verses having strong holdings is a key component of poker strategy. Why give anyone a shortcut to gaining this information?
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Quick fix 2, Let those Aces go!
Weak Aces
Probably the most common limped hands among beginning tournament players is the weak Ace, especially if that ace is suited.
This approach to starting hands often gets those players in big trouble post flop when their ace hits. How can hitting top pair possibly be a bad thing?
The first reason is that any player who doesn't hold an ace is going to quickly fold to any action from that player. So, they limped pre-flop creating a small pot. The ace hits, they bet, everyone without an ace folds. What have they just won? A few players blinds. A small pot.
What kind of hands would call a decent bet when an ace comes on the flop? Three kinds, hands that are much better like two pair or more, hands with a better ace (higher kicker), or hands with a draw. So, in the case where someone is going to call your bet when an ace comes on the flop, they most likely have you beat. So you end up winning no pot at all. And loosing your big bet.
The best case scenario here (besides playing a fish with a huge range) is that the other player is on a draw and they call your bets and miss.
Hitting that ace on the flop therefore either means that you will win a small pot because everyone else misses, or you are in a high risk situation where you may already be behind when someone calls that strong post flop bet.
In early or middle position most of the time you should be folding that weak ace.
Strong Aces
Pre-flop a medium strong to strong ace (A 10 to AK) is a good starting hand, and, depending on other players range and aggressiveness, even good three betting hands.
Post flop, these hands are simply ace high however if they miss.
These strong drawing hands are greatly reduced in value once the the flop hits and they miss. However, particularly in the case of A K, some players are reluctant to let a hand that was so strong preflop go. Even a pair of two's here has you beat, and you have 6 outs to any pair if there are no additional draws, not positive expected value situations.
So, pre-flop, certainly raise and potentially re-raise with these hands to build a good pot. But remember that the value of these hands is if they HIT, be prepared to fold your strong ace to a missed flop the majority of the time.
Top pair vs all in
You have played your aces well, building the pot and reducing the number of players pre-flop with your raises, and the flop comes down and you hit your ace! This is great news, exactly what you are looking for.
Is this an all in calling hand however if you make a strong continuation bet and your opponent pushes all in?
Here is yet another situation where folding that Ace if you feel you are behind is a valid response.
If you are in low buy in tournaments playing with new players, and there is an obvious draw on the board, then you MAY be facing a player who is going all in on a draw, beginners especially like flush draws. Here, the correct action is a call as your aces are more likely to win over standard straight or flush draws (without additional outs).
If the board doesn't have any draws, and you are facing an all in, then the next way to determine what to do is your opponents playing style and range. If they are a true rock, a player who only plays and bets on premium hands premium hits then you may be behind and need to fold here.
If they are a tight aggressive player who's big bets are usually backed up with hands, then you have a tough decision, if you have A J do they have you out-kicked? Did they hit two pair or better? Here is another situation where you might need to fold to an all in.
Generally, if the player you are facing is to be respected, and their play has not shown big bluffs or signs of weak play, then an all in to your big bet when an ace hits on the board followed by your fold is likely to be the best response.
When your big ace hits post flop definitely bet it out with a decent bet, but be prepared to think carefully about people calling or raising those big bets, and, depending on your analysis of the other players style and range, be prepared to fold it to significant action.
Pocket Rockets
There really isn't much better in texas hold em poker than looking down at a fine set of pocket rockets, Aces. Pre flop play is easy, just keep raising every time it comes to you and call any all ins without hesitation.
And most likely, your aces will be an over pair to the board, if someone else gets a big pair as well you are likely to take a fair chunk of their chips.
But, post flop play here is not automatic, and, as in any case where you have a strong hand but a tight aggressive player is continuing to call or raise big bets, you have to give respect to other players that have earned it. And also be wary of draws.
The best case scenario is that they have an overpair to the board, as you have them way behind, but this is not the only scenario.
If a obvious draw hits (4 cards on the board one suit, 4 cards on the board all part of a straight), or a tight aggressive player who has earned your respect, raise your bets here you may have to make one of the tougher decisions in poker, and potentially fold those pocket aces.
Detecting when you are facing another overpair to a low board as opposed to something better is tricky, here the opponents playing style and range come into play for that decision.
Let those aces go!
Save some money and be prepared let aces go in these situations:
1. Pre flop with a weak ace in early or mid position (90%+).
2. Post flop with a weak ace that hits when a player you respect significantly raises you (90%).
3. Post flop when your strong ace misses, even AK (95%).
4. Post flop when your strong ace hits but you face an all in or a raise from a player you respect (depends on hand strength, A 10 most of the time, A K 50% depending greatly on read).
5. Post flop when your pair of aces is beaten by an obvious draw from a player who isn't folding (90%+), or when a player you highly respect shows calling or raising action from your big bets through all streets (50% depending greatly on read).
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Quick fix 1, Stop Limping!
When players first start playing poker they often treat it like many other forms of gambling, where you don't have an influence over the result. So, they will limp in on a wide range of cards, hoping that they hit the flop much like a slot machine pull.
So what is the trouble with this approach? Why is it a money looser long term?
Firstly, limping into a pot does very little to deter other players from the pot. So, your odds of winning the hand are reduced simply because there are more players in the hand, and more players holding cards that can hit on the flop and beyond. So the first reason for not limping is that you will be facing lots of other players, and they have the same odds as you for hitting their cards, so your odds of winning the hand are reduced.
Now, what if you limp and someone raises? If you have a standard limped hand, such as Q 10, then you are likely behind here, to a stronger queen, or a hand such as A J. So the wise choice here would be to fold, as you know that your odds of winning against a better hand are considerably reduced. But the problem for most limpers is that they will call modest raises, because they are still approaching this as pure gambling, and waiting for the flop. If you play in 1$ or free tournaments you will see pots where there are multiple limpers and then 1 raiser, and all the limpers also end up calling making multi-way flopped pots. All of those limpers likely have reduced chances of winning a hand against a raiser, so folding would have been a better choice, and not limping at all an even better one.
What happens post flop to the limpers who called the raise? If one of them has a Q 10, and the queen hits on the flop, now what? Someone raised preflop so if they do have the queen, they certainly have a better one. And here is the real reason limping is so bad. If you do have the Q 10, and the queen does hit, then you are likely to loose a lot of chips finding out that someone else has a better kicker than you. Because hitting their high card is what limpers want, and its how better players quickly learn to take advantage of them.
So the real key with limping is not necessarily the small loss you take from limping and folding, its playing that weaker hand post flop. If someone has raised you pre flop, then even hitting your high card does not guarantee a win, and instead you may be loosing any chips you invest in the hand. Post flop play is another key reason limpers loose so much money, its hard to fold a hand when your top pair hits, but against a pre-flop raising player who calls or makes big bets post flop, folding would most likely be the best alternative.
If you have raised pre-flop with K Q, and your king or queen hits, then, due to two things:
1. People folding to your raise preflop
2. You having a strong kicker
You are most likely ahead in the hand. So your odds of winning are high. This is the situation you are trying to create. And the reason for not limping.
In poker, you are always trying to increase your odds of winning. This is done by hand selection, reducing the number of players by pre-flop raising, and responding to other players shows of strength appropriately.
Limping is a valid choice in some situations, but generally, limping should be the action you perform the least, fold most hands, raise with good hands, only limp very occasionally. Increase your odds of winning by kicking the limping habit.
So what is the trouble with this approach? Why is it a money looser long term?
Firstly, limping into a pot does very little to deter other players from the pot. So, your odds of winning the hand are reduced simply because there are more players in the hand, and more players holding cards that can hit on the flop and beyond. So the first reason for not limping is that you will be facing lots of other players, and they have the same odds as you for hitting their cards, so your odds of winning the hand are reduced.
Now, what if you limp and someone raises? If you have a standard limped hand, such as Q 10, then you are likely behind here, to a stronger queen, or a hand such as A J. So the wise choice here would be to fold, as you know that your odds of winning against a better hand are considerably reduced. But the problem for most limpers is that they will call modest raises, because they are still approaching this as pure gambling, and waiting for the flop. If you play in 1$ or free tournaments you will see pots where there are multiple limpers and then 1 raiser, and all the limpers also end up calling making multi-way flopped pots. All of those limpers likely have reduced chances of winning a hand against a raiser, so folding would have been a better choice, and not limping at all an even better one.
What happens post flop to the limpers who called the raise? If one of them has a Q 10, and the queen hits on the flop, now what? Someone raised preflop so if they do have the queen, they certainly have a better one. And here is the real reason limping is so bad. If you do have the Q 10, and the queen does hit, then you are likely to loose a lot of chips finding out that someone else has a better kicker than you. Because hitting their high card is what limpers want, and its how better players quickly learn to take advantage of them.
So the real key with limping is not necessarily the small loss you take from limping and folding, its playing that weaker hand post flop. If someone has raised you pre flop, then even hitting your high card does not guarantee a win, and instead you may be loosing any chips you invest in the hand. Post flop play is another key reason limpers loose so much money, its hard to fold a hand when your top pair hits, but against a pre-flop raising player who calls or makes big bets post flop, folding would most likely be the best alternative.
If you have raised pre-flop with K Q, and your king or queen hits, then, due to two things:
1. People folding to your raise preflop
2. You having a strong kicker
You are most likely ahead in the hand. So your odds of winning are high. This is the situation you are trying to create. And the reason for not limping.
In poker, you are always trying to increase your odds of winning. This is done by hand selection, reducing the number of players by pre-flop raising, and responding to other players shows of strength appropriately.
Limping is a valid choice in some situations, but generally, limping should be the action you perform the least, fold most hands, raise with good hands, only limp very occasionally. Increase your odds of winning by kicking the limping habit.
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Adapting to an unexpected action.
There are moments duringa poker game where your opponent does something unexpected, that is, anything a poker player does that appears to be outside of their normal playing style.
Some of this was previously covered in another post, where a normally very aggressive player checks the flop, and, after some time passes, just calls your bet.
This players playing style is to almost always bet first when in a pot, always bet large, and is very tough to get out of the pot. When you do hit you typically make money off of them.
When this type of player suddenly checks and then just calls, this sets off alarm bells because it is not their normal playing style.
Once you have established a normal range of playing style for a player, unexpected actions provide a lot of information.
Another change in pattern is a sudden large bet from a player who has been betting small so far or just calling small. If a player just calls a raise of 2x the big blind for example, then just a modest continuation bet, then suddenly raises large on the turn, not something you have seen from them before, this should also lead to further analysis before action.
The key is that the action has to be out of character or normal playing style. Once you have played a few hands with a player, you start to know what bet size and frequency to expect.
A rock player who only bets out or calls on hits may show they have hit when their betting pattern suddenly changes. If you have watched or played a few hands with them, then you know what to expect as you move through the streets to the river.
You raise to 2x the bb on a full table, a rock calls. Immediately, you know you are facing a medium pair up, or A J up since their range is so tight.
The flop comes and you decide to continuation bet. The rock calls. This means the rock has a pair or a good draw, this rock does not call bets with nothing.
On the turn, you check, and the rock suddenly bets out large. This is totally out of character. Every other hand you have observed or watched has them fairly passive, even with top pair, this rock likes to call or bet modestly to the river.
This is the time to pause, click "TIME" if you don't have much time left in your bank. Look carefully at the texture of the board, why is this person suddenly betting so out of character? Think about what hands would lead to this action?
One possible scenario is that they have hit their draw, straight or flush. Each players style needs to be assessed, but it is against many rocks playing style, particulary on made draws, to slow play.
Based on your knowledge of this players previous style, and of course the strength of your own cards, you can make an informed decision.
Next time you are in a hand and the other player suddenly does something out of character, stop, look at the flop and post flop cards, take some time, and think carefully about what cards the other player would have that would make sense with their course of actions.
Some of this was previously covered in another post, where a normally very aggressive player checks the flop, and, after some time passes, just calls your bet.
This players playing style is to almost always bet first when in a pot, always bet large, and is very tough to get out of the pot. When you do hit you typically make money off of them.
When this type of player suddenly checks and then just calls, this sets off alarm bells because it is not their normal playing style.
Once you have established a normal range of playing style for a player, unexpected actions provide a lot of information.
Another change in pattern is a sudden large bet from a player who has been betting small so far or just calling small. If a player just calls a raise of 2x the big blind for example, then just a modest continuation bet, then suddenly raises large on the turn, not something you have seen from them before, this should also lead to further analysis before action.
The key is that the action has to be out of character or normal playing style. Once you have played a few hands with a player, you start to know what bet size and frequency to expect.
A rock player who only bets out or calls on hits may show they have hit when their betting pattern suddenly changes. If you have watched or played a few hands with them, then you know what to expect as you move through the streets to the river.
You raise to 2x the bb on a full table, a rock calls. Immediately, you know you are facing a medium pair up, or A J up since their range is so tight.
The flop comes and you decide to continuation bet. The rock calls. This means the rock has a pair or a good draw, this rock does not call bets with nothing.
On the turn, you check, and the rock suddenly bets out large. This is totally out of character. Every other hand you have observed or watched has them fairly passive, even with top pair, this rock likes to call or bet modestly to the river.
This is the time to pause, click "TIME" if you don't have much time left in your bank. Look carefully at the texture of the board, why is this person suddenly betting so out of character? Think about what hands would lead to this action?
One possible scenario is that they have hit their draw, straight or flush. Each players style needs to be assessed, but it is against many rocks playing style, particulary on made draws, to slow play.
Based on your knowledge of this players previous style, and of course the strength of your own cards, you can make an informed decision.
Next time you are in a hand and the other player suddenly does something out of character, stop, look at the flop and post flop cards, take some time, and think carefully about what cards the other player would have that would make sense with their course of actions.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Establishing Range on an Opponent
I remember watching a WPT tournament a while ago where a flop with 9 high caused a player who raised pre-flop to make a big continuation bet, and the opposing player to make a big raise. The player who made the continuation bet sighed, and after a while, folded. The opposing player appeared to look at the player who folded with sympathy, and told him "There just aren't too many 9's in your range".
He had correctly established that this player was not likely to raise pre-flop if he had a hand with a 9 in it, like A 9 or 8 9. So he had guessed the bet was a continuation bet bluff, and had raised.
How was this possible?
The player who took the pot had correctly established range on his opponent.
The first way to determine range is to see how many pots a player participates in overall, and how many they raise pre flop. The more hands they participate in, the lower their range is, the lower the starting requirements for their cards are.
And the opposite holds true, with "rocks" populating the other end, the less hands they participate in, the less hands they limp or raise with, the higher their range, the higher the starting requirements for their cards are.
After establishing an overall range with player participation, you try and back up your hypothesis with actual cards, seeing if a player who raises a lot has the range you suspect, confirming a tight player has high starting hand requirements.
How do you then use this information?
If you have an A 10 on in position, and a player with a wide range limps before you, you can reasonably raise with a good degree of confidence that your hand is ahead. If however a rock in early position raises, then you have to be prepared to fold your hand, either here, or even more dangerously, when an Ace hits on the flop. Because the rocks range is so tight, the only hands they would be raising with have you beat, A J minimum, high pair probably above your kicker.
By establishing a range on an opponent, you can make informed raises or folds pre flop dependent on their actions.
Another example is with a pair of 10's. If a loose player acting before you raises, you may choose to make a big re-raise here, as a pair of 10's is ahead of much of their range. If a tight player raises, then you may still choose to call, but do so with the knowledge that they most likely have overcards to your pair...
After establishing an overall range in the first few rounds of a tournament, you start to refine that range to the situation, as peoples ranges typically lowers with position, and good players range adjusts dependent on whom they play.
I remember starting playing poker for cash and occasionally being frustrated by the fact that other hands were being won on third pair, but my top pair was either quickly being folded to, or superior hands were calling me down.
My opponents had correctly established a tighter range on me, and so knew that action from me, unlike action from some opponents, meant they were much more likely to be up against a strong hand.
Eventually you establish individual range on a player, dependent on situation and position. You then make pre and post flop choices based on your knowledge of their likely hands.
The only caveat to all of this is that sometimes loose players also get strong hands, and that, while you would normally be miles ahead calling an all in post flop on your top pair second kicker, sometimes they do have strong hands. Like all things in poker, recognize that a loose player getting a strong hand only happens occasionally, normally aggressive play with strong holdings results in profit against a looser players wider range.
He had correctly established that this player was not likely to raise pre-flop if he had a hand with a 9 in it, like A 9 or 8 9. So he had guessed the bet was a continuation bet bluff, and had raised.
How was this possible?
The player who took the pot had correctly established range on his opponent.
The first way to determine range is to see how many pots a player participates in overall, and how many they raise pre flop. The more hands they participate in, the lower their range is, the lower the starting requirements for their cards are.
And the opposite holds true, with "rocks" populating the other end, the less hands they participate in, the less hands they limp or raise with, the higher their range, the higher the starting requirements for their cards are.
After establishing an overall range with player participation, you try and back up your hypothesis with actual cards, seeing if a player who raises a lot has the range you suspect, confirming a tight player has high starting hand requirements.
How do you then use this information?
If you have an A 10 on in position, and a player with a wide range limps before you, you can reasonably raise with a good degree of confidence that your hand is ahead. If however a rock in early position raises, then you have to be prepared to fold your hand, either here, or even more dangerously, when an Ace hits on the flop. Because the rocks range is so tight, the only hands they would be raising with have you beat, A J minimum, high pair probably above your kicker.
By establishing a range on an opponent, you can make informed raises or folds pre flop dependent on their actions.
Another example is with a pair of 10's. If a loose player acting before you raises, you may choose to make a big re-raise here, as a pair of 10's is ahead of much of their range. If a tight player raises, then you may still choose to call, but do so with the knowledge that they most likely have overcards to your pair...
After establishing an overall range in the first few rounds of a tournament, you start to refine that range to the situation, as peoples ranges typically lowers with position, and good players range adjusts dependent on whom they play.
I remember starting playing poker for cash and occasionally being frustrated by the fact that other hands were being won on third pair, but my top pair was either quickly being folded to, or superior hands were calling me down.
My opponents had correctly established a tighter range on me, and so knew that action from me, unlike action from some opponents, meant they were much more likely to be up against a strong hand.
Eventually you establish individual range on a player, dependent on situation and position. You then make pre and post flop choices based on your knowledge of their likely hands.
The only caveat to all of this is that sometimes loose players also get strong hands, and that, while you would normally be miles ahead calling an all in post flop on your top pair second kicker, sometimes they do have strong hands. Like all things in poker, recognize that a loose player getting a strong hand only happens occasionally, normally aggressive play with strong holdings results in profit against a looser players wider range.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Coin Flips
Coin flips are an inevitable part of any poker players decision making process. While we always attempt to be as ahead as possible when putting our chips on the line, we will be facing all in decisions and other choices that may put a significant portion of your stack in the middle on a potential coin flip.
You can attempt to avoid coin flips by only calling with pairs and attempting to hit sets, as well as other strategies, but, over time, this is a money loosing proposition. Players who are prepared to push or bet big on coin flips are going to push you out of pots and take any chips you have committed to the pot up until this point.
Since folding to all coin flips over time is a money loosing strategy, there has to be an approach that optimizes the chances of winning, or at least improves your odds.
If you given the opportunity to flip a coin for cash, you win and recieve 1$, loose and owe 1$, over time you would be very close to even.
If you however knew that, out of 100 flips, 54 were likely to be heads, due to a flaw in the coin, then, particularly if you were having 100's or even 1000
s of flips, you would always choose heads. Because you know that eventually, you will come out ahead.
The same holds true in poker. If every time you are in a coin flip situation, you attempt to at least be slightly ahead, over 100's or even 1000's of coin flip decisions, you will come out ahead.
So, hopefully by now you know that a pair of 10's or higher is a favourite over A K, 57 to 43 percent. So, if you know you are facing AK or lower non paired, you are ahead.
If you have a pair of 8's vs A K, you are a 55% favourite. Even a pair of 2's hovers just above a 52% advantage.
So in all of the above situations its mathmatically correct to call or push with your pair and be slightly ahead.
This can also lead to a situation where you may choose to fold an A K or A Q if you know you are facing a pair of 10s or higher.
Usually, the value of two cards being suited adds little to the overall value of the starting hand, as it only increases your odds of winning (by hitting a flush by the river) by 2%.
However, in the extremely close situations where you want to determine if you are ahead or have pot odds to call in a coin flip, that 2% can be just enough to give you a mathmatically correct call. So a J 10 suited is close enough to a true coin flip with an under pair that its fine to call an all in if you feel that is what you are facing.
So, if your A K is suited, the 55% advantage a pair of 8's has over you shrinks to between 52% and 53%, making a call or push when combined with pot odds the correct choice.
Of course, the worst nighmare of calling or pushing with a pair is facing an overpair. Here you are at a distinct disadvantage hovering in the 80% + range.
Knowing the details of how different combinations of cards provide advantage is useful in coin fip situations. Of course, knowing the other players calling or raising range is the other vital component to making the correct decision, you may push or fold a pair of 10s depending on who is raising in front of you or three betting your raise and be correct for that situation either way.
Knowing when you are slightly ahead in coin flips and not being afraid to call when you feel strongly you are is a key winning strategy in poker. Over time, succeeding at being ahead the majority of the time in coin flips is profitable. Attempting to avoid them every time is not.
You can attempt to avoid coin flips by only calling with pairs and attempting to hit sets, as well as other strategies, but, over time, this is a money loosing proposition. Players who are prepared to push or bet big on coin flips are going to push you out of pots and take any chips you have committed to the pot up until this point.
Since folding to all coin flips over time is a money loosing strategy, there has to be an approach that optimizes the chances of winning, or at least improves your odds.
If you given the opportunity to flip a coin for cash, you win and recieve 1$, loose and owe 1$, over time you would be very close to even.
If you however knew that, out of 100 flips, 54 were likely to be heads, due to a flaw in the coin, then, particularly if you were having 100's or even 1000
s of flips, you would always choose heads. Because you know that eventually, you will come out ahead.
The same holds true in poker. If every time you are in a coin flip situation, you attempt to at least be slightly ahead, over 100's or even 1000's of coin flip decisions, you will come out ahead.
So, hopefully by now you know that a pair of 10's or higher is a favourite over A K, 57 to 43 percent. So, if you know you are facing AK or lower non paired, you are ahead.
If you have a pair of 8's vs A K, you are a 55% favourite. Even a pair of 2's hovers just above a 52% advantage.
So in all of the above situations its mathmatically correct to call or push with your pair and be slightly ahead.
This can also lead to a situation where you may choose to fold an A K or A Q if you know you are facing a pair of 10s or higher.
Usually, the value of two cards being suited adds little to the overall value of the starting hand, as it only increases your odds of winning (by hitting a flush by the river) by 2%.
However, in the extremely close situations where you want to determine if you are ahead or have pot odds to call in a coin flip, that 2% can be just enough to give you a mathmatically correct call. So a J 10 suited is close enough to a true coin flip with an under pair that its fine to call an all in if you feel that is what you are facing.
So, if your A K is suited, the 55% advantage a pair of 8's has over you shrinks to between 52% and 53%, making a call or push when combined with pot odds the correct choice.
Of course, the worst nighmare of calling or pushing with a pair is facing an overpair. Here you are at a distinct disadvantage hovering in the 80% + range.
Knowing the details of how different combinations of cards provide advantage is useful in coin fip situations. Of course, knowing the other players calling or raising range is the other vital component to making the correct decision, you may push or fold a pair of 10s depending on who is raising in front of you or three betting your raise and be correct for that situation either way.
Knowing when you are slightly ahead in coin flips and not being afraid to call when you feel strongly you are is a key winning strategy in poker. Over time, succeeding at being ahead the majority of the time in coin flips is profitable. Attempting to avoid them every time is not.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Medium pairs
Medium pairs are one of the tougher hands to play in poker. Not easy to fold in early position like a pair of 3's, not easy to make a decent raise or three bet as with 10s and up and know how to play post flop.
While medium pairs do have a slight advantage over monster non paired hands such as AK or AQ, they are not dominant over any hand until at least one of your opponents cards is lower than your pair, or, best case scenario, they have an under pair.
So, if other players aren't maniacs, someone calling or raising you with your medium pair probably has two overcards.
This is why post flop play is so challenging. If you have a pair of 8s, raise to 3x the big blind and get called, the flop is very likely to have at least one over card. So, unlike an overpair to a board, is not so clear what to do here. You have to rely on your reads on the other players range, what bet size you feel would get them out of the pot with anything but top pair, and whether they are likely to call on worse than top pair.
Sure, its nice to know that your pair of 8s is most likely ahead of most pre flop hands out there, but how helpful is that on the river facing a bet with 2 or more overcards on the board?
The only solution to post flop play with pairs, except in the case of hitting a set, is to attempt to use what you know about the other players style and range to get them out of the hand, as the further you get into the hand the tougher decisions get if more overcards show up.
There are a couple of ways to attempt to optimize EV on medium pairs. One is to raise fairly strongly pre-flop more than you usually do, 4x bb into an unraised pot, for example. This will mean more opponents fold giving you a higher chance of scooping blinds and anti's pre flop, and that callers have truly strong hands, so that aces or kings on the flop are easier to fold to.
Another is to use it as a blind stealer, making a huge raise on lots of limped pre flop hands, as you are very likely to be ahead on a limped family pot.
Another opportunity exists for medium pairs on preflop all ins by small stacks. Here, the risk to you in a potential coin flip situation is minimized by having the other stack so small, and small stacks all in range does include hands with aces that might have kickers lower than your pair, putting you in a dominant situation. So, small stack all ins are well called with a medium pair.
And of course, as a small stack yourself, an all in pre-flop puts you in a likely slightly ahead coin flip situation, a risk you are willing to take as the small stack to either double up or steal blinds.
Playing medium pairs can be really tough post flop, as there are almost certainly one or more overcards on the board. Here, you have to rely on reads and other poker tells to attempt to win the hand. However, pre-flop play with pairs can be optimized to increase expected value, and medium pairs are very good hands to call small stacks with, as well as push all in when you are the small stack yourself.
While medium pairs do have a slight advantage over monster non paired hands such as AK or AQ, they are not dominant over any hand until at least one of your opponents cards is lower than your pair, or, best case scenario, they have an under pair.
So, if other players aren't maniacs, someone calling or raising you with your medium pair probably has two overcards.
This is why post flop play is so challenging. If you have a pair of 8s, raise to 3x the big blind and get called, the flop is very likely to have at least one over card. So, unlike an overpair to a board, is not so clear what to do here. You have to rely on your reads on the other players range, what bet size you feel would get them out of the pot with anything but top pair, and whether they are likely to call on worse than top pair.
Sure, its nice to know that your pair of 8s is most likely ahead of most pre flop hands out there, but how helpful is that on the river facing a bet with 2 or more overcards on the board?
The only solution to post flop play with pairs, except in the case of hitting a set, is to attempt to use what you know about the other players style and range to get them out of the hand, as the further you get into the hand the tougher decisions get if more overcards show up.
There are a couple of ways to attempt to optimize EV on medium pairs. One is to raise fairly strongly pre-flop more than you usually do, 4x bb into an unraised pot, for example. This will mean more opponents fold giving you a higher chance of scooping blinds and anti's pre flop, and that callers have truly strong hands, so that aces or kings on the flop are easier to fold to.
Another is to use it as a blind stealer, making a huge raise on lots of limped pre flop hands, as you are very likely to be ahead on a limped family pot.
Another opportunity exists for medium pairs on preflop all ins by small stacks. Here, the risk to you in a potential coin flip situation is minimized by having the other stack so small, and small stacks all in range does include hands with aces that might have kickers lower than your pair, putting you in a dominant situation. So, small stack all ins are well called with a medium pair.
And of course, as a small stack yourself, an all in pre-flop puts you in a likely slightly ahead coin flip situation, a risk you are willing to take as the small stack to either double up or steal blinds.
Playing medium pairs can be really tough post flop, as there are almost certainly one or more overcards on the board. Here, you have to rely on reads and other poker tells to attempt to win the hand. However, pre-flop play with pairs can be optimized to increase expected value, and medium pairs are very good hands to call small stacks with, as well as push all in when you are the small stack yourself.
Exploiting Tilt
We have all probably both observed the effects of tilt, both on players we play and even on ourselves. When you observe behaviour that is indicative of tilt, can it be exploited? Of course, the pro's wouldn't spend so much time attempting to put Phil Helmuth on tilt if it didn't seriously weaken his play.
So, what happens? How can it be exploited?
Perhaps suprisingly, a tilted players starting hand range usually doesn't vary significantly unless they are on tilt against just one player. So, usually, when a tilted player calls or raises, they have decent holdings.
An occasional beginner or particularly weak player will push on their next hand if they have just been put on tilt, this is a different situation where you need to be comfortable with your read and potential opponent range. Most experienced players will have enough control on their initial hand selection to not allow emotion to lower their range however.
A tilted player will sometimes make rediculous raises pre-flop, such as 10x the big blind on a previous bet of double the big blind, this is definitely an indicator of tilt, but it is not necessarily an indicator of a weak hand.
The place where tilt can really be exploited is when a tilted player hits on the flop. Once they are in a pot, and have hit, they are very tough to get out of the pot. They may also pursue draws much more aggressively than is mathmatically sensible given pot odds and the odds of hitting a draw.
So, if you are playing your cards correctly and have also hit on the flop, with a big hit, you can probably get all of their chips.
On a recent hand on Poker after Dark, Phil Helmuth had been complaining of bad beats and bad luck for a few hands, and had been shown a couple of bluffs, he was exhibiting the classic signs of tilt.
On one hand, he is dealt AA and decides to slow play, not necessarilly a bad decision at this point. He then faces a raise and two callers. At this point, instead of continuing his weak hand ruse, he reraises at least 5x the last raise for 10 000 dollar raise on a barely 3000 dollar pot. This of course quickly led to all of his opponents folding. Continuing his ruse would have been more lucrative as he had every possible starting hand dominated. But he was on tilt.
So, a few hands later, he makes a raise with AK (again, pre flop, most players on their first play play the hand correctly). He has one or two callers, and a King hits on the flop. He makes a big bet, and is called by one player. As he is on tilt, it is not likely that he will be folding the hand any time soon.
On the turn, he makes another big bet, and his opponent makes a huge raise.
Now why would anyone make a huge raise on a tilted player when they so obviously demonstrate through actions that they have a big hand? Its pretty close to suicidal to try a huge bluff on a tilted player, you have to deal with the "I just don't give a crap" factor when they perform a desperation hope call.
Phil barely hesitated pushing all in on top pair top kicker. And was beat with two pair. He freaked out and quit the game.
The keys here are knowing that a tilted player is not necessarily playing with garbage hands, they are instead going to completely, thoroughly and stubbornly overplay any hands they do get. Bluffing is not recommended, instead play well, wait for the hit when you play them, and take their chips.
So, what happens? How can it be exploited?
Perhaps suprisingly, a tilted players starting hand range usually doesn't vary significantly unless they are on tilt against just one player. So, usually, when a tilted player calls or raises, they have decent holdings.
An occasional beginner or particularly weak player will push on their next hand if they have just been put on tilt, this is a different situation where you need to be comfortable with your read and potential opponent range. Most experienced players will have enough control on their initial hand selection to not allow emotion to lower their range however.
A tilted player will sometimes make rediculous raises pre-flop, such as 10x the big blind on a previous bet of double the big blind, this is definitely an indicator of tilt, but it is not necessarily an indicator of a weak hand.
The place where tilt can really be exploited is when a tilted player hits on the flop. Once they are in a pot, and have hit, they are very tough to get out of the pot. They may also pursue draws much more aggressively than is mathmatically sensible given pot odds and the odds of hitting a draw.
So, if you are playing your cards correctly and have also hit on the flop, with a big hit, you can probably get all of their chips.
On a recent hand on Poker after Dark, Phil Helmuth had been complaining of bad beats and bad luck for a few hands, and had been shown a couple of bluffs, he was exhibiting the classic signs of tilt.
On one hand, he is dealt AA and decides to slow play, not necessarilly a bad decision at this point. He then faces a raise and two callers. At this point, instead of continuing his weak hand ruse, he reraises at least 5x the last raise for 10 000 dollar raise on a barely 3000 dollar pot. This of course quickly led to all of his opponents folding. Continuing his ruse would have been more lucrative as he had every possible starting hand dominated. But he was on tilt.
So, a few hands later, he makes a raise with AK (again, pre flop, most players on their first play play the hand correctly). He has one or two callers, and a King hits on the flop. He makes a big bet, and is called by one player. As he is on tilt, it is not likely that he will be folding the hand any time soon.
On the turn, he makes another big bet, and his opponent makes a huge raise.
Now why would anyone make a huge raise on a tilted player when they so obviously demonstrate through actions that they have a big hand? Its pretty close to suicidal to try a huge bluff on a tilted player, you have to deal with the "I just don't give a crap" factor when they perform a desperation hope call.
Phil barely hesitated pushing all in on top pair top kicker. And was beat with two pair. He freaked out and quit the game.
The keys here are knowing that a tilted player is not necessarily playing with garbage hands, they are instead going to completely, thoroughly and stubbornly overplay any hands they do get. Bluffing is not recommended, instead play well, wait for the hit when you play them, and take their chips.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Playing medium-strong hands
One of the things I first noticed when moving from 3$ to 5$ sit and go's is a change in the way you can play medium-strong hands, such as:
K 10 off
K J off
QJ off
A 10 off
The average players range when you move from 3 to 5 dollar sit and goes decreases, so these hands are no longer likely ahead when you get a caller to your raise, especially if they are not in the blinds.
And, if an early position player raises, then these hands are no longer likely ahead of their holdings.
Less experienced players in the 3$ sit and goes have a wide range, especially limping range, so these hands do get called on raises or limping raises. This is less likely in 5$ tournaments.
How does this effect play? Although we should always be dependent on other player patterns and reads for a primary information, generally, this is how the game play changes:
1. Getting these cards in early position should lead to folds more often than raises.
2. Calling with these hands on an early position raiser is higher risk, potential kicker trouble.
3. You won't typically make as much money from these hands, as people with worse hands will quickly fold, people with better hands will call you and either raise you out of the hand or beat you at showdown.
In 3$ sit and goes, carefully played medium-strong hands can be decent money makers as the players limping and raise calling range is lower. In 5$ sit and goes, you can still profit from them, but have to pay more attention to position and be more respectful of early position raisers.
In other words, play these hands less in 5$ sit and goes than you would 3$.
K 10 off
K J off
QJ off
A 10 off
The average players range when you move from 3 to 5 dollar sit and goes decreases, so these hands are no longer likely ahead when you get a caller to your raise, especially if they are not in the blinds.
And, if an early position player raises, then these hands are no longer likely ahead of their holdings.
Less experienced players in the 3$ sit and goes have a wide range, especially limping range, so these hands do get called on raises or limping raises. This is less likely in 5$ tournaments.
How does this effect play? Although we should always be dependent on other player patterns and reads for a primary information, generally, this is how the game play changes:
1. Getting these cards in early position should lead to folds more often than raises.
2. Calling with these hands on an early position raiser is higher risk, potential kicker trouble.
3. You won't typically make as much money from these hands, as people with worse hands will quickly fold, people with better hands will call you and either raise you out of the hand or beat you at showdown.
In 3$ sit and goes, carefully played medium-strong hands can be decent money makers as the players limping and raise calling range is lower. In 5$ sit and goes, you can still profit from them, but have to pay more attention to position and be more respectful of early position raisers.
In other words, play these hands less in 5$ sit and goes than you would 3$.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
The first 10 hands
When you first start any tournament, especially online, you will have almost no knowledge about the other players playing style. The safest way to play the first few hands of a tournament is to tighten up until you are otherwise confident, and then start playing ranges.
At the beginning of a tournament, depending somewhat on buy in, all of the maniacs, calling stations, and big bluffers are still in, so there are much higher odds of running into these playing styles.
If you do raise on an early hand in a touranment, and you have multiple callers, the odds of at least one of the callers making a very loose bad call is quite high. Its tough to impossible though to know if a three-bet to your raise off of a pair of 10's pre-flop is due to a very strong hand or a poor player.
There is one thing working in your favour though. And that is, rediculous players make rediculous mistakes that are easy to spot after just one hand. So a player who makes three calls on ace high is exposed rapidly, or the big bluffer who gets called with two pair or higher showing his king high. As soon as you see an example of this type of play, you can attempt to isolate the player (which is made easier as they may be the only one who will call your big raise pre flip when you have a strong hand) and play the hand out. For a calling station, second pair or better, or a strong draw are all reasons to keep betting. The key with calling stations or rediculous bluffers is that you must have at least something to defend with, going to the river with ace high is too risky, you want third pair at the lowest to defend (adjust to their play).
So, the safe way to play the first 10 hands of a tournament is to play tight, and play the cards when you do get strong holdings.
If however an early tournament player reveals real weakness, the poor players do fairly rapidly, you can exploit that weekness by attempting to isolate that player and lowering your range against them.
At the beginning of a tournament, depending somewhat on buy in, all of the maniacs, calling stations, and big bluffers are still in, so there are much higher odds of running into these playing styles.
If you do raise on an early hand in a touranment, and you have multiple callers, the odds of at least one of the callers making a very loose bad call is quite high. Its tough to impossible though to know if a three-bet to your raise off of a pair of 10's pre-flop is due to a very strong hand or a poor player.
There is one thing working in your favour though. And that is, rediculous players make rediculous mistakes that are easy to spot after just one hand. So a player who makes three calls on ace high is exposed rapidly, or the big bluffer who gets called with two pair or higher showing his king high. As soon as you see an example of this type of play, you can attempt to isolate the player (which is made easier as they may be the only one who will call your big raise pre flip when you have a strong hand) and play the hand out. For a calling station, second pair or better, or a strong draw are all reasons to keep betting. The key with calling stations or rediculous bluffers is that you must have at least something to defend with, going to the river with ace high is too risky, you want third pair at the lowest to defend (adjust to their play).
So, the safe way to play the first 10 hands of a tournament is to play tight, and play the cards when you do get strong holdings.
If however an early tournament player reveals real weakness, the poor players do fairly rapidly, you can exploit that weekness by attempting to isolate that player and lowering your range against them.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Fake rocks
There is one strategy that is used in sit and go tournaments, often enough that, once observed, it can be exploited.
The strategy is simple enough. Early on in the tournament, simply wait for good cards and fold on all misses. The main goal here is loosing as little as possible, minimizing risk, and only going to showdown with premium hands. Depending on how the cards run and whether other players learn to back off if they are calling strong, players can double up or more over time.
I have even seen players completely sit out the first two blind levels so that there stats (for those following stats with the HUD) will appear very tight.
In the first case, the goal here is to portray the rock playing style. The hand history on these players only shows strong hands, so no clues as to the upcoming gear change from history. And, any heads up display hand tracking software will give them very tight statistics, leading players to believe that pre-flop raises indicate strong holdings, the same for post flop action.
The players who completely sit out the first two blind levels are doing the extreme version of this. The software will still track the hands played even as they sit out, leading to the conclusion that, based on soley on stats, they are playing tight.
The second tournament strategy is easier to pick out, as usually players who sit out for the first two blind levels then enter the game loose and aggressive. Wait for strong holdings and let them bet into you. When they suddenly start playing hands, establish range as quickly as possible. Also, a player sitting out for the first few rounds might as well have a flashing light above their name, as soon as they sit back in their playing style is put under the microscope for possible exploitation.
The first fake rock strategy however can be tougher to spot, the first clue is usually the person is suddenly increasing the number of hands they participate in.
The second clue is based on a change in playing style. Rocks only raise when they have strong holdings, but suddenly this player is raising one off the button to steal blinds and doing large continuation bets after every pre-flop raise. The key here is to notice the FREQUENCY of these moves. Rocks make them very occasionally, fake rocks make them more often than they don't.
This second clue is key, as a real rock sometimes gets on a rush of good hands, its important to attempt to find the difference between a rush and a change in gears.
Another clue is folding to a re-raise after a continuation bet. This is a situation that a rock is unlikely to find themselves in, they would only bet if they have hit strong, and would usually have a hand that can defend against a re-raise. Observe this in another players hand and know that you are most likely no longer dealing with a rock.
A combination of these clues and others can identify the fake rock rather quickly as the action heats up with the final table. Keep your range calculations on this player dynamic, and rely more on recent hand history than stats over entire tournament playing style.
An especially devastating move these fake rocks like to employ is the deadly all in. If you have played an entire tournament with a player who appears tight, and then moves all in when you have top pair good kicker, this puts you in a tough spot.
The only thing to do here is to have established recent range. And keep very close track of exactly how the hand played out. A fake rock is going to be check raising and highly aggressive and loose in most hands. A real rock will not. Stick to your hands when you have decent holdings against them, lower what you will call them with.
If you can put these clues together, sudden increase in number of hands played, recent hand history indicating lowering range, and especially an increase in aggressiveness on all streets, then the fake rock trick may be under play.
As you can see from this post and the min raise post, there are situations where, even with the same player, you might fold to a min raise, but call an all in. A fake rock suddenly going aggressive will only min raise on the nuts, but will push all in to get you off a hand.
Putting this all together can lead to the hero call on a post flop all in bluff.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Small stack late tournament trap
So, you've played well, stayed tight, been aggressive when in the pot, and you've made it to the final table. The final table consists of a couple of stacks larger than yours, three (including yourself) in the mid stack range (30bb) and three or four small stacks (less than 10 bb).
The blinds here are devastating for the small stacks, they know they have to chip up fast or they will be blinded out. And, they also know that going below 3bb means they will give no fold equity, a large stack will call a tiny stack all in with almost any two cards.
So, the small stacks are basically waiting for a hand strong enough for an all in. Depending on stack size, any ace, certainly any pair, and probably any two face cards will do.
However, a smart small stack also realizes that if someone has raised with other players yet to act, and they have a moderate weak hand such as A 3, then this is not the time to push, as the larger stack that already pre-flop raised probably has a better hand.
A smart short stack also understands the power of blind stealing. If 1 or more players before them have limped into the pot, indicating less than premium holdings, they can push all in to take that limp as well as the blinds and antes.
This behaviour, if observed, can be taken advantage of.
Normally, if you have a strong hand such as A Q or a pair of 10's, you would pre-flop raise to build the pot. However, if there are small stacks desperately trying to double up at your table, you can set the small stack trap.
If you are in early position, instead of raising with these hands, you will limp. This indicates a medium strength hand, and this limp will be much less likely to deter a small stack from going all in, as they might feel an all in would push you off of your limp bet.
The other advantage here is that the small stacks all in will most likely deter others from entering the pot, meaning it will be just you and the small stack going to the flop and beyond on their all in.
Of course, if a big stack yet to act raises your bet, then your focus shifts to playing that player instead of the small stack, as they can potentially cause a lot more damage to your chip stack. Fortunately, limping with a strong hand means you are well defended and ready to go to the flop with that big stack.
Most times, it is definitely wise to raise with a strong hand to build the pot and reduce the number of post flop players.
However, at the end of a tournament when surrounded by desperate small stacks, a strong hand that would otherwise deter their all in with a raise can instead be used as a trap, portraying a marginal hand giving the small stack the confidence to push.
The blinds here are devastating for the small stacks, they know they have to chip up fast or they will be blinded out. And, they also know that going below 3bb means they will give no fold equity, a large stack will call a tiny stack all in with almost any two cards.
So, the small stacks are basically waiting for a hand strong enough for an all in. Depending on stack size, any ace, certainly any pair, and probably any two face cards will do.
However, a smart small stack also realizes that if someone has raised with other players yet to act, and they have a moderate weak hand such as A 3, then this is not the time to push, as the larger stack that already pre-flop raised probably has a better hand.
A smart short stack also understands the power of blind stealing. If 1 or more players before them have limped into the pot, indicating less than premium holdings, they can push all in to take that limp as well as the blinds and antes.
This behaviour, if observed, can be taken advantage of.
Normally, if you have a strong hand such as A Q or a pair of 10's, you would pre-flop raise to build the pot. However, if there are small stacks desperately trying to double up at your table, you can set the small stack trap.
If you are in early position, instead of raising with these hands, you will limp. This indicates a medium strength hand, and this limp will be much less likely to deter a small stack from going all in, as they might feel an all in would push you off of your limp bet.
The other advantage here is that the small stacks all in will most likely deter others from entering the pot, meaning it will be just you and the small stack going to the flop and beyond on their all in.
Of course, if a big stack yet to act raises your bet, then your focus shifts to playing that player instead of the small stack, as they can potentially cause a lot more damage to your chip stack. Fortunately, limping with a strong hand means you are well defended and ready to go to the flop with that big stack.
Most times, it is definitely wise to raise with a strong hand to build the pot and reduce the number of post flop players.
However, at the end of a tournament when surrounded by desperate small stacks, a strong hand that would otherwise deter their all in with a raise can instead be used as a trap, portraying a marginal hand giving the small stack the confidence to push.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Beware the min raise!
There is one move or bet size in poker that, in certain situations, should set off alarm bells.
That move is the min raise.
In order to understand why the min raise is so important, we need to understand why it is used by experienced poker players.
The min raise absolutely unequivically says the better wants you in the pot. They are pricing you in.
If you combine a min raise with an otherwise tight aggressive player then you know you are facing a strong hand.
Pre flop
When do players min raise pre-flop?
A player who has strong holdings with no callers before them, particulary in late position, may min-raise in order to tempt the remaining players, particularly the blinds, into calling with weaker holdings.
A player min raising with lots of players already in the pot most likely has a strong drawing hand, such as K Q suited. Usually (not always) a min raise pre flop does not indicate a strong made hand, such as queens or higher. Or the player feels they have a hand that would simply dominate if it hit on the flop, such as a set. A min raise pre-flop is simply a pot builder, the player making it likes the potential of their hand.
Post flop
Post flop, a min raise, especially from tight aggressive players, should set off alarm bells.
Why would someone min raise post flop?
Again, they are trying to keep their opponent(s) in the pot.
And, any time a players normal behavior changes, such as a normally aggressive player suddenly only min-raising, should also set off alarm bells.
So, if you raise pre-flop with A K. Only one caller from a tight aggressive player. Your K hits on the flop, the other cards seem to be insignificant non face cards. You decide to play aggressively, and, after the other player checks to you, you make a solid almost pot sized bet.
After waiting for a few moments the other player min-raises you. Top Pair Top Kicker is such a strong hand. What is going on here?
What could they have They called your decent raise pre-flop. Then, post flop they...
And here is another clue. Post flop they did not check right away, a few seconds passed before the check.
You assess their play prior to this hand. You cannot see a single situation where they went to showdown with anything weak, you cannot find a single example of them calling big raises post flop with weak holdings.
This is starting to look more and more like you have run into a set.
Generally, min raises on any street from an experienced player means the other player feels very strongly that their hand is the best hand, and are deliberatly pricing you in.
Slow down, think, and perform some serious assessment before making that easy call...
That move is the min raise.
In order to understand why the min raise is so important, we need to understand why it is used by experienced poker players.
The min raise absolutely unequivically says the better wants you in the pot. They are pricing you in.
If you combine a min raise with an otherwise tight aggressive player then you know you are facing a strong hand.
Pre flop
When do players min raise pre-flop?
A player who has strong holdings with no callers before them, particulary in late position, may min-raise in order to tempt the remaining players, particularly the blinds, into calling with weaker holdings.
A player min raising with lots of players already in the pot most likely has a strong drawing hand, such as K Q suited. Usually (not always) a min raise pre flop does not indicate a strong made hand, such as queens or higher. Or the player feels they have a hand that would simply dominate if it hit on the flop, such as a set. A min raise pre-flop is simply a pot builder, the player making it likes the potential of their hand.
Post flop
Post flop, a min raise, especially from tight aggressive players, should set off alarm bells.
Why would someone min raise post flop?
Again, they are trying to keep their opponent(s) in the pot.
And, any time a players normal behavior changes, such as a normally aggressive player suddenly only min-raising, should also set off alarm bells.
So, if you raise pre-flop with A K. Only one caller from a tight aggressive player. Your K hits on the flop, the other cards seem to be insignificant non face cards. You decide to play aggressively, and, after the other player checks to you, you make a solid almost pot sized bet.
After waiting for a few moments the other player min-raises you. Top Pair Top Kicker is such a strong hand. What is going on here?
What could they have They called your decent raise pre-flop. Then, post flop they...
And here is another clue. Post flop they did not check right away, a few seconds passed before the check.
You assess their play prior to this hand. You cannot see a single situation where they went to showdown with anything weak, you cannot find a single example of them calling big raises post flop with weak holdings.
This is starting to look more and more like you have run into a set.
Generally, min raises on any street from an experienced player means the other player feels very strongly that their hand is the best hand, and are deliberatly pricing you in.
Slow down, think, and perform some serious assessment before making that easy call...
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Exploiting Table Image
Sometimes, during a poker tournament, a set of circumstances occur that mean you have a specific table image.
Last night, I was involved in very few hands pre-flop, only made a couple of smallish continuation bets, checked the rest of the time, and folded to aggression. The two hands that did go to showdown ended up doubling me up each time, but both were very strong hands (a set and two pair) so other players watching these hands would know I need a strong hand before calling a big bet, I would usually fold.
If you look at just these facts without understanding the reasoning behind them, then you would put me safely in the rock category, meaning that aggression and big bets would get me to fold in most circumstances.
This affects the way other players play you.
I started getting lots of pre-flop raises and all ins.
Lots of players, even those who weren't being that aggressive otherwise, started betting into me.
So how does this get exploited?
Patience first. Then think.
I am seeing an observable repeatable pattern from multiple players that can be exploited. In four main ways:
1. Pre-flop. Push all in or call an all in with strong holdings to double up.
2. Both. Call a big pre flop raise and bet into the flop large.
3. Post flop. Play a pre-flop raise weakly until the river and then double any bets with good holdings.
4. Post flop. Make a large check raise.
The first is simply about range, you are waiting to establish a range on the pre-flop all in callers so that you can call near the top of their range.
The second is taking advantage of the rock reputation. Most players will believe when a rock calls a big pre-flop raise, and then believe that the rock has hit when they bet big post flop (particularly if they have seen examples of lots of flop checking and folding to raises in previous hands). There is bluffing opportunity here.
The third is trapping with a strong hand by playing it weakly. So, even though your hand that you raised with pre-flop has hit, you make the same weak continuation bet you have previously (2x bb). Your opponent calls. You check the turn. They check the turn. On the river, thanks to your reputation, they assume you have nothing. If they have position, you check, they bet, you at least double it. If you have position, you at least double their lead out be on the river.
The fourth is again taking advantage of the rock reputation. When a rock does make a big bet, most players without top notch holdings will fold. There is bluffing opportunity here.
As in all poker, even making the right decisions and moves doesn't guarantee victory, after being successful at using strategy number 4 for one hand, I called an over aggressive all in player from the small blind in the big blind. Who had pushed three times on me in the last 20 hands.
I called with A Q off.
They had JQ off.
They hit the J and I was out.
The outcome was not important. The important thing was understanding how table circumstances can lead to you having a specific table image, whether accurate or not. Figuring out ways of exploiting that table image will lead to profits over time.
Last night, I was involved in very few hands pre-flop, only made a couple of smallish continuation bets, checked the rest of the time, and folded to aggression. The two hands that did go to showdown ended up doubling me up each time, but both were very strong hands (a set and two pair) so other players watching these hands would know I need a strong hand before calling a big bet, I would usually fold.
If you look at just these facts without understanding the reasoning behind them, then you would put me safely in the rock category, meaning that aggression and big bets would get me to fold in most circumstances.
This affects the way other players play you.
I started getting lots of pre-flop raises and all ins.
Lots of players, even those who weren't being that aggressive otherwise, started betting into me.
So how does this get exploited?
Patience first. Then think.
I am seeing an observable repeatable pattern from multiple players that can be exploited. In four main ways:
1. Pre-flop. Push all in or call an all in with strong holdings to double up.
2. Both. Call a big pre flop raise and bet into the flop large.
3. Post flop. Play a pre-flop raise weakly until the river and then double any bets with good holdings.
4. Post flop. Make a large check raise.
The first is simply about range, you are waiting to establish a range on the pre-flop all in callers so that you can call near the top of their range.
The second is taking advantage of the rock reputation. Most players will believe when a rock calls a big pre-flop raise, and then believe that the rock has hit when they bet big post flop (particularly if they have seen examples of lots of flop checking and folding to raises in previous hands). There is bluffing opportunity here.
The third is trapping with a strong hand by playing it weakly. So, even though your hand that you raised with pre-flop has hit, you make the same weak continuation bet you have previously (2x bb). Your opponent calls. You check the turn. They check the turn. On the river, thanks to your reputation, they assume you have nothing. If they have position, you check, they bet, you at least double it. If you have position, you at least double their lead out be on the river.
The fourth is again taking advantage of the rock reputation. When a rock does make a big bet, most players without top notch holdings will fold. There is bluffing opportunity here.
As in all poker, even making the right decisions and moves doesn't guarantee victory, after being successful at using strategy number 4 for one hand, I called an over aggressive all in player from the small blind in the big blind. Who had pushed three times on me in the last 20 hands.
I called with A Q off.
They had JQ off.
They hit the J and I was out.
The outcome was not important. The important thing was understanding how table circumstances can lead to you having a specific table image, whether accurate or not. Figuring out ways of exploiting that table image will lead to profits over time.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Playing Ace King Pre Flop
An ACE KING as your starting cards in Texas Hold-em is one of the most desired hands, just after the big two pairs. Doyle Brunson however calls Ace King "Two tickets to Memphis", as in, playing these cards wrong will send you home in a hurry.
Whether or not you go all in yourself, or call an all in, is another key consideration.
Scenario 1, Calling an all in.
There is a mathmatical perspective that says any time you are facing an all in with an Ace King, you should call. I can't remember the precise values, but, if you called every all in you face with Ace King, you will win between 53 and 54% of the time. For those mathmatical players who focus soley on EV, perhaps this is a good approach for you.
Ace King is a DRAWING hand however, its merely Ace High if neither card hits. So, facing any made hand (a pair) puts you in a slightly disadvantaged coin flip situation. You have about a 2% disadvantage over a pair of two's, moving up to a 43 to 57% disadvantage to any pair starting at 10s. And of course you are at a distinct disadvantage against a pair of aces or kings, even if that likelyhood is reduced since you are also holding an ace and a king.
So, against a pair lower than kings, you are in a slightly badly weighted coin flip situation.
The real advantage of Ace King comes when the other player is also holding an ace with a lower kicker. Here is one situation where you would definitely want to call an all in.
So, if you are holding an ace king, and you are facing an all in, you should ask the following questions:
1. Is the other player very tight or conservative? Do they play very few hands? Have they gone all in before? A very tight player with a decent stack moving all in should set off alarm bells. You are almost certainly slightly behind here (10's to Q's) or worst case scenario, one of the big pairs. If a rock moves all in before you act, this might not be the time to call.
2. Are they short stacked? If they are, most likely their range is lowering, call them.
3. Do you know the other players all in range? Have they been trying to double up quickly as part of their tournament strategy? If a player has been going all in multiple times early in a tournament, and Ace King is a great calling hand.
Scenario 2. Pushing all in with Ace King.
Certainly, if you have an Ace King, and it is pre-flop, you are going to be raising, or if someone has raised before you, three bettting. What if you are again raised? Should you push? Or just call?
Any time you are going to push all in with less than the two big pairs, you need to do some careful analysis before making the move. The same holds true for Ace King.
Remember that the power of Ace King comes from hitting one of your cards, knowing what the flop contains and if you have hit can increase your odds of winning significantly. So, if you are in a situation where there are re-raises on your raise, then just calling and seeing the flop can secure a win or prevent further chip loss.
If however, you are facing a small stack that has a decent chunk invested in a pre-flop raise, then a push will either end up with a fold or perhaps a call on a weaker ace. Both are desirable outcomes.
Or, if you are facing what appears to be a steal attempt, then pushing can quickly send the message that you are not easy to blind steal from.
Otherwise, calling rather than pushing with Ace King (after raising yourself of course) can reduce losses.
Very short stacked players should always push all in with Ace King. Lots of inferior holdings are willing to call a small stack all in.
Would you ever limp with Ace King?
The majority of time, you should be raising or re-raising with your ace king pre-flop to increase pot size and therefore your winnings when it hits.
There are however a couple of situations where a call could be a deceptive strategy. One is if you have a blind punisher at the table. This player type loves it when four or more limps take place, they raise to 5x BB or more and take all of the blinds and antes. If two or more have limped in front of you, and you know the blind punisher is yet to act, a limp here followed by an all in to a blind stealer can be a satisfying result.
The other is if other players are hyper aggressive. If you can be CERTAIN that a specific player or player is going to raise, based on history, go ahead an limp. A hyper aggressive player is most certainly going to be behind when they raise your limp, a re-raise or push here can take their chips on inferior holdings.
So, unless you can be almost certain that you will be raised, always raise with Ace King and build the pot pre flop.
Whether or not you go all in yourself, or call an all in, is another key consideration.
Scenario 1, Calling an all in.
There is a mathmatical perspective that says any time you are facing an all in with an Ace King, you should call. I can't remember the precise values, but, if you called every all in you face with Ace King, you will win between 53 and 54% of the time. For those mathmatical players who focus soley on EV, perhaps this is a good approach for you.
Ace King is a DRAWING hand however, its merely Ace High if neither card hits. So, facing any made hand (a pair) puts you in a slightly disadvantaged coin flip situation. You have about a 2% disadvantage over a pair of two's, moving up to a 43 to 57% disadvantage to any pair starting at 10s. And of course you are at a distinct disadvantage against a pair of aces or kings, even if that likelyhood is reduced since you are also holding an ace and a king.
So, against a pair lower than kings, you are in a slightly badly weighted coin flip situation.
The real advantage of Ace King comes when the other player is also holding an ace with a lower kicker. Here is one situation where you would definitely want to call an all in.
So, if you are holding an ace king, and you are facing an all in, you should ask the following questions:
1. Is the other player very tight or conservative? Do they play very few hands? Have they gone all in before? A very tight player with a decent stack moving all in should set off alarm bells. You are almost certainly slightly behind here (10's to Q's) or worst case scenario, one of the big pairs. If a rock moves all in before you act, this might not be the time to call.
2. Are they short stacked? If they are, most likely their range is lowering, call them.
3. Do you know the other players all in range? Have they been trying to double up quickly as part of their tournament strategy? If a player has been going all in multiple times early in a tournament, and Ace King is a great calling hand.
Scenario 2. Pushing all in with Ace King.
Certainly, if you have an Ace King, and it is pre-flop, you are going to be raising, or if someone has raised before you, three bettting. What if you are again raised? Should you push? Or just call?
Any time you are going to push all in with less than the two big pairs, you need to do some careful analysis before making the move. The same holds true for Ace King.
Remember that the power of Ace King comes from hitting one of your cards, knowing what the flop contains and if you have hit can increase your odds of winning significantly. So, if you are in a situation where there are re-raises on your raise, then just calling and seeing the flop can secure a win or prevent further chip loss.
If however, you are facing a small stack that has a decent chunk invested in a pre-flop raise, then a push will either end up with a fold or perhaps a call on a weaker ace. Both are desirable outcomes.
Or, if you are facing what appears to be a steal attempt, then pushing can quickly send the message that you are not easy to blind steal from.
Otherwise, calling rather than pushing with Ace King (after raising yourself of course) can reduce losses.
Very short stacked players should always push all in with Ace King. Lots of inferior holdings are willing to call a small stack all in.
Would you ever limp with Ace King?
The majority of time, you should be raising or re-raising with your ace king pre-flop to increase pot size and therefore your winnings when it hits.
There are however a couple of situations where a call could be a deceptive strategy. One is if you have a blind punisher at the table. This player type loves it when four or more limps take place, they raise to 5x BB or more and take all of the blinds and antes. If two or more have limped in front of you, and you know the blind punisher is yet to act, a limp here followed by an all in to a blind stealer can be a satisfying result.
The other is if other players are hyper aggressive. If you can be CERTAIN that a specific player or player is going to raise, based on history, go ahead an limp. A hyper aggressive player is most certainly going to be behind when they raise your limp, a re-raise or push here can take their chips on inferior holdings.
So, unless you can be almost certain that you will be raised, always raise with Ace King and build the pot pre flop.
Milestone Reached!
Have been playing a number of larger online tournaments over the last little while, and recently achieved a second in a tournament that netted over 500 bucks!
Tight aggressive was the playing style, kept the number of bluffs down until I could be more certain of folds in specific situations, pushed hard and aggressively if I thought I was ahead, and folded to aggression from players to be respected in specific situations.
The first milestone I achieved was in early 2010, when I was no longer in debt (I had won more than I spent on pokerstars, and had paid back all money spent on pokerstars).
This one means my career winnings have passed the 2000 dollar mark, not making me rich anytime soon but not bad for a passtime!
Tight aggressive was the playing style, kept the number of bluffs down until I could be more certain of folds in specific situations, pushed hard and aggressively if I thought I was ahead, and folded to aggression from players to be respected in specific situations.
The first milestone I achieved was in early 2010, when I was no longer in debt (I had won more than I spent on pokerstars, and had paid back all money spent on pokerstars).
This one means my career winnings have passed the 2000 dollar mark, not making me rich anytime soon but not bad for a passtime!
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