Medium pairs are one of the tougher hands to play in poker. Not easy to fold in early position like a pair of 3's, not easy to make a decent raise or three bet as with 10s and up and know how to play post flop.
While medium pairs do have a slight advantage over monster non paired hands such as AK or AQ, they are not dominant over any hand until at least one of your opponents cards is lower than your pair, or, best case scenario, they have an under pair.
So, if other players aren't maniacs, someone calling or raising you with your medium pair probably has two overcards.
This is why post flop play is so challenging. If you have a pair of 8s, raise to 3x the big blind and get called, the flop is very likely to have at least one over card. So, unlike an overpair to a board, is not so clear what to do here. You have to rely on your reads on the other players range, what bet size you feel would get them out of the pot with anything but top pair, and whether they are likely to call on worse than top pair.
Sure, its nice to know that your pair of 8s is most likely ahead of most pre flop hands out there, but how helpful is that on the river facing a bet with 2 or more overcards on the board?
The only solution to post flop play with pairs, except in the case of hitting a set, is to attempt to use what you know about the other players style and range to get them out of the hand, as the further you get into the hand the tougher decisions get if more overcards show up.
There are a couple of ways to attempt to optimize EV on medium pairs. One is to raise fairly strongly pre-flop more than you usually do, 4x bb into an unraised pot, for example. This will mean more opponents fold giving you a higher chance of scooping blinds and anti's pre flop, and that callers have truly strong hands, so that aces or kings on the flop are easier to fold to.
Another is to use it as a blind stealer, making a huge raise on lots of limped pre flop hands, as you are very likely to be ahead on a limped family pot.
Another opportunity exists for medium pairs on preflop all ins by small stacks. Here, the risk to you in a potential coin flip situation is minimized by having the other stack so small, and small stacks all in range does include hands with aces that might have kickers lower than your pair, putting you in a dominant situation. So, small stack all ins are well called with a medium pair.
And of course, as a small stack yourself, an all in pre-flop puts you in a likely slightly ahead coin flip situation, a risk you are willing to take as the small stack to either double up or steal blinds.
Playing medium pairs can be really tough post flop, as there are almost certainly one or more overcards on the board. Here, you have to rely on reads and other poker tells to attempt to win the hand. However, pre-flop play with pairs can be optimized to increase expected value, and medium pairs are very good hands to call small stacks with, as well as push all in when you are the small stack yourself.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Exploiting Tilt
We have all probably both observed the effects of tilt, both on players we play and even on ourselves. When you observe behaviour that is indicative of tilt, can it be exploited? Of course, the pro's wouldn't spend so much time attempting to put Phil Helmuth on tilt if it didn't seriously weaken his play.
So, what happens? How can it be exploited?
Perhaps suprisingly, a tilted players starting hand range usually doesn't vary significantly unless they are on tilt against just one player. So, usually, when a tilted player calls or raises, they have decent holdings.
An occasional beginner or particularly weak player will push on their next hand if they have just been put on tilt, this is a different situation where you need to be comfortable with your read and potential opponent range. Most experienced players will have enough control on their initial hand selection to not allow emotion to lower their range however.
A tilted player will sometimes make rediculous raises pre-flop, such as 10x the big blind on a previous bet of double the big blind, this is definitely an indicator of tilt, but it is not necessarily an indicator of a weak hand.
The place where tilt can really be exploited is when a tilted player hits on the flop. Once they are in a pot, and have hit, they are very tough to get out of the pot. They may also pursue draws much more aggressively than is mathmatically sensible given pot odds and the odds of hitting a draw.
So, if you are playing your cards correctly and have also hit on the flop, with a big hit, you can probably get all of their chips.
On a recent hand on Poker after Dark, Phil Helmuth had been complaining of bad beats and bad luck for a few hands, and had been shown a couple of bluffs, he was exhibiting the classic signs of tilt.
On one hand, he is dealt AA and decides to slow play, not necessarilly a bad decision at this point. He then faces a raise and two callers. At this point, instead of continuing his weak hand ruse, he reraises at least 5x the last raise for 10 000 dollar raise on a barely 3000 dollar pot. This of course quickly led to all of his opponents folding. Continuing his ruse would have been more lucrative as he had every possible starting hand dominated. But he was on tilt.
So, a few hands later, he makes a raise with AK (again, pre flop, most players on their first play play the hand correctly). He has one or two callers, and a King hits on the flop. He makes a big bet, and is called by one player. As he is on tilt, it is not likely that he will be folding the hand any time soon.
On the turn, he makes another big bet, and his opponent makes a huge raise.
Now why would anyone make a huge raise on a tilted player when they so obviously demonstrate through actions that they have a big hand? Its pretty close to suicidal to try a huge bluff on a tilted player, you have to deal with the "I just don't give a crap" factor when they perform a desperation hope call.
Phil barely hesitated pushing all in on top pair top kicker. And was beat with two pair. He freaked out and quit the game.
The keys here are knowing that a tilted player is not necessarily playing with garbage hands, they are instead going to completely, thoroughly and stubbornly overplay any hands they do get. Bluffing is not recommended, instead play well, wait for the hit when you play them, and take their chips.
So, what happens? How can it be exploited?
Perhaps suprisingly, a tilted players starting hand range usually doesn't vary significantly unless they are on tilt against just one player. So, usually, when a tilted player calls or raises, they have decent holdings.
An occasional beginner or particularly weak player will push on their next hand if they have just been put on tilt, this is a different situation where you need to be comfortable with your read and potential opponent range. Most experienced players will have enough control on their initial hand selection to not allow emotion to lower their range however.
A tilted player will sometimes make rediculous raises pre-flop, such as 10x the big blind on a previous bet of double the big blind, this is definitely an indicator of tilt, but it is not necessarily an indicator of a weak hand.
The place where tilt can really be exploited is when a tilted player hits on the flop. Once they are in a pot, and have hit, they are very tough to get out of the pot. They may also pursue draws much more aggressively than is mathmatically sensible given pot odds and the odds of hitting a draw.
So, if you are playing your cards correctly and have also hit on the flop, with a big hit, you can probably get all of their chips.
On a recent hand on Poker after Dark, Phil Helmuth had been complaining of bad beats and bad luck for a few hands, and had been shown a couple of bluffs, he was exhibiting the classic signs of tilt.
On one hand, he is dealt AA and decides to slow play, not necessarilly a bad decision at this point. He then faces a raise and two callers. At this point, instead of continuing his weak hand ruse, he reraises at least 5x the last raise for 10 000 dollar raise on a barely 3000 dollar pot. This of course quickly led to all of his opponents folding. Continuing his ruse would have been more lucrative as he had every possible starting hand dominated. But he was on tilt.
So, a few hands later, he makes a raise with AK (again, pre flop, most players on their first play play the hand correctly). He has one or two callers, and a King hits on the flop. He makes a big bet, and is called by one player. As he is on tilt, it is not likely that he will be folding the hand any time soon.
On the turn, he makes another big bet, and his opponent makes a huge raise.
Now why would anyone make a huge raise on a tilted player when they so obviously demonstrate through actions that they have a big hand? Its pretty close to suicidal to try a huge bluff on a tilted player, you have to deal with the "I just don't give a crap" factor when they perform a desperation hope call.
Phil barely hesitated pushing all in on top pair top kicker. And was beat with two pair. He freaked out and quit the game.
The keys here are knowing that a tilted player is not necessarily playing with garbage hands, they are instead going to completely, thoroughly and stubbornly overplay any hands they do get. Bluffing is not recommended, instead play well, wait for the hit when you play them, and take their chips.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Playing medium-strong hands
One of the things I first noticed when moving from 3$ to 5$ sit and go's is a change in the way you can play medium-strong hands, such as:
K 10 off
K J off
QJ off
A 10 off
The average players range when you move from 3 to 5 dollar sit and goes decreases, so these hands are no longer likely ahead when you get a caller to your raise, especially if they are not in the blinds.
And, if an early position player raises, then these hands are no longer likely ahead of their holdings.
Less experienced players in the 3$ sit and goes have a wide range, especially limping range, so these hands do get called on raises or limping raises. This is less likely in 5$ tournaments.
How does this effect play? Although we should always be dependent on other player patterns and reads for a primary information, generally, this is how the game play changes:
1. Getting these cards in early position should lead to folds more often than raises.
2. Calling with these hands on an early position raiser is higher risk, potential kicker trouble.
3. You won't typically make as much money from these hands, as people with worse hands will quickly fold, people with better hands will call you and either raise you out of the hand or beat you at showdown.
In 3$ sit and goes, carefully played medium-strong hands can be decent money makers as the players limping and raise calling range is lower. In 5$ sit and goes, you can still profit from them, but have to pay more attention to position and be more respectful of early position raisers.
In other words, play these hands less in 5$ sit and goes than you would 3$.
K 10 off
K J off
QJ off
A 10 off
The average players range when you move from 3 to 5 dollar sit and goes decreases, so these hands are no longer likely ahead when you get a caller to your raise, especially if they are not in the blinds.
And, if an early position player raises, then these hands are no longer likely ahead of their holdings.
Less experienced players in the 3$ sit and goes have a wide range, especially limping range, so these hands do get called on raises or limping raises. This is less likely in 5$ tournaments.
How does this effect play? Although we should always be dependent on other player patterns and reads for a primary information, generally, this is how the game play changes:
1. Getting these cards in early position should lead to folds more often than raises.
2. Calling with these hands on an early position raiser is higher risk, potential kicker trouble.
3. You won't typically make as much money from these hands, as people with worse hands will quickly fold, people with better hands will call you and either raise you out of the hand or beat you at showdown.
In 3$ sit and goes, carefully played medium-strong hands can be decent money makers as the players limping and raise calling range is lower. In 5$ sit and goes, you can still profit from them, but have to pay more attention to position and be more respectful of early position raisers.
In other words, play these hands less in 5$ sit and goes than you would 3$.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
The first 10 hands
When you first start any tournament, especially online, you will have almost no knowledge about the other players playing style. The safest way to play the first few hands of a tournament is to tighten up until you are otherwise confident, and then start playing ranges.
At the beginning of a tournament, depending somewhat on buy in, all of the maniacs, calling stations, and big bluffers are still in, so there are much higher odds of running into these playing styles.
If you do raise on an early hand in a touranment, and you have multiple callers, the odds of at least one of the callers making a very loose bad call is quite high. Its tough to impossible though to know if a three-bet to your raise off of a pair of 10's pre-flop is due to a very strong hand or a poor player.
There is one thing working in your favour though. And that is, rediculous players make rediculous mistakes that are easy to spot after just one hand. So a player who makes three calls on ace high is exposed rapidly, or the big bluffer who gets called with two pair or higher showing his king high. As soon as you see an example of this type of play, you can attempt to isolate the player (which is made easier as they may be the only one who will call your big raise pre flip when you have a strong hand) and play the hand out. For a calling station, second pair or better, or a strong draw are all reasons to keep betting. The key with calling stations or rediculous bluffers is that you must have at least something to defend with, going to the river with ace high is too risky, you want third pair at the lowest to defend (adjust to their play).
So, the safe way to play the first 10 hands of a tournament is to play tight, and play the cards when you do get strong holdings.
If however an early tournament player reveals real weakness, the poor players do fairly rapidly, you can exploit that weekness by attempting to isolate that player and lowering your range against them.
At the beginning of a tournament, depending somewhat on buy in, all of the maniacs, calling stations, and big bluffers are still in, so there are much higher odds of running into these playing styles.
If you do raise on an early hand in a touranment, and you have multiple callers, the odds of at least one of the callers making a very loose bad call is quite high. Its tough to impossible though to know if a three-bet to your raise off of a pair of 10's pre-flop is due to a very strong hand or a poor player.
There is one thing working in your favour though. And that is, rediculous players make rediculous mistakes that are easy to spot after just one hand. So a player who makes three calls on ace high is exposed rapidly, or the big bluffer who gets called with two pair or higher showing his king high. As soon as you see an example of this type of play, you can attempt to isolate the player (which is made easier as they may be the only one who will call your big raise pre flip when you have a strong hand) and play the hand out. For a calling station, second pair or better, or a strong draw are all reasons to keep betting. The key with calling stations or rediculous bluffers is that you must have at least something to defend with, going to the river with ace high is too risky, you want third pair at the lowest to defend (adjust to their play).
So, the safe way to play the first 10 hands of a tournament is to play tight, and play the cards when you do get strong holdings.
If however an early tournament player reveals real weakness, the poor players do fairly rapidly, you can exploit that weekness by attempting to isolate that player and lowering your range against them.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Fake rocks
There is one strategy that is used in sit and go tournaments, often enough that, once observed, it can be exploited.
The strategy is simple enough. Early on in the tournament, simply wait for good cards and fold on all misses. The main goal here is loosing as little as possible, minimizing risk, and only going to showdown with premium hands. Depending on how the cards run and whether other players learn to back off if they are calling strong, players can double up or more over time.
I have even seen players completely sit out the first two blind levels so that there stats (for those following stats with the HUD) will appear very tight.
In the first case, the goal here is to portray the rock playing style. The hand history on these players only shows strong hands, so no clues as to the upcoming gear change from history. And, any heads up display hand tracking software will give them very tight statistics, leading players to believe that pre-flop raises indicate strong holdings, the same for post flop action.
The players who completely sit out the first two blind levels are doing the extreme version of this. The software will still track the hands played even as they sit out, leading to the conclusion that, based on soley on stats, they are playing tight.
The second tournament strategy is easier to pick out, as usually players who sit out for the first two blind levels then enter the game loose and aggressive. Wait for strong holdings and let them bet into you. When they suddenly start playing hands, establish range as quickly as possible. Also, a player sitting out for the first few rounds might as well have a flashing light above their name, as soon as they sit back in their playing style is put under the microscope for possible exploitation.
The first fake rock strategy however can be tougher to spot, the first clue is usually the person is suddenly increasing the number of hands they participate in.
The second clue is based on a change in playing style. Rocks only raise when they have strong holdings, but suddenly this player is raising one off the button to steal blinds and doing large continuation bets after every pre-flop raise. The key here is to notice the FREQUENCY of these moves. Rocks make them very occasionally, fake rocks make them more often than they don't.
This second clue is key, as a real rock sometimes gets on a rush of good hands, its important to attempt to find the difference between a rush and a change in gears.
Another clue is folding to a re-raise after a continuation bet. This is a situation that a rock is unlikely to find themselves in, they would only bet if they have hit strong, and would usually have a hand that can defend against a re-raise. Observe this in another players hand and know that you are most likely no longer dealing with a rock.
A combination of these clues and others can identify the fake rock rather quickly as the action heats up with the final table. Keep your range calculations on this player dynamic, and rely more on recent hand history than stats over entire tournament playing style.
An especially devastating move these fake rocks like to employ is the deadly all in. If you have played an entire tournament with a player who appears tight, and then moves all in when you have top pair good kicker, this puts you in a tough spot.
The only thing to do here is to have established recent range. And keep very close track of exactly how the hand played out. A fake rock is going to be check raising and highly aggressive and loose in most hands. A real rock will not. Stick to your hands when you have decent holdings against them, lower what you will call them with.
If you can put these clues together, sudden increase in number of hands played, recent hand history indicating lowering range, and especially an increase in aggressiveness on all streets, then the fake rock trick may be under play.
As you can see from this post and the min raise post, there are situations where, even with the same player, you might fold to a min raise, but call an all in. A fake rock suddenly going aggressive will only min raise on the nuts, but will push all in to get you off a hand.
Putting this all together can lead to the hero call on a post flop all in bluff.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Small stack late tournament trap
So, you've played well, stayed tight, been aggressive when in the pot, and you've made it to the final table. The final table consists of a couple of stacks larger than yours, three (including yourself) in the mid stack range (30bb) and three or four small stacks (less than 10 bb).
The blinds here are devastating for the small stacks, they know they have to chip up fast or they will be blinded out. And, they also know that going below 3bb means they will give no fold equity, a large stack will call a tiny stack all in with almost any two cards.
So, the small stacks are basically waiting for a hand strong enough for an all in. Depending on stack size, any ace, certainly any pair, and probably any two face cards will do.
However, a smart small stack also realizes that if someone has raised with other players yet to act, and they have a moderate weak hand such as A 3, then this is not the time to push, as the larger stack that already pre-flop raised probably has a better hand.
A smart short stack also understands the power of blind stealing. If 1 or more players before them have limped into the pot, indicating less than premium holdings, they can push all in to take that limp as well as the blinds and antes.
This behaviour, if observed, can be taken advantage of.
Normally, if you have a strong hand such as A Q or a pair of 10's, you would pre-flop raise to build the pot. However, if there are small stacks desperately trying to double up at your table, you can set the small stack trap.
If you are in early position, instead of raising with these hands, you will limp. This indicates a medium strength hand, and this limp will be much less likely to deter a small stack from going all in, as they might feel an all in would push you off of your limp bet.
The other advantage here is that the small stacks all in will most likely deter others from entering the pot, meaning it will be just you and the small stack going to the flop and beyond on their all in.
Of course, if a big stack yet to act raises your bet, then your focus shifts to playing that player instead of the small stack, as they can potentially cause a lot more damage to your chip stack. Fortunately, limping with a strong hand means you are well defended and ready to go to the flop with that big stack.
Most times, it is definitely wise to raise with a strong hand to build the pot and reduce the number of post flop players.
However, at the end of a tournament when surrounded by desperate small stacks, a strong hand that would otherwise deter their all in with a raise can instead be used as a trap, portraying a marginal hand giving the small stack the confidence to push.
The blinds here are devastating for the small stacks, they know they have to chip up fast or they will be blinded out. And, they also know that going below 3bb means they will give no fold equity, a large stack will call a tiny stack all in with almost any two cards.
So, the small stacks are basically waiting for a hand strong enough for an all in. Depending on stack size, any ace, certainly any pair, and probably any two face cards will do.
However, a smart small stack also realizes that if someone has raised with other players yet to act, and they have a moderate weak hand such as A 3, then this is not the time to push, as the larger stack that already pre-flop raised probably has a better hand.
A smart short stack also understands the power of blind stealing. If 1 or more players before them have limped into the pot, indicating less than premium holdings, they can push all in to take that limp as well as the blinds and antes.
This behaviour, if observed, can be taken advantage of.
Normally, if you have a strong hand such as A Q or a pair of 10's, you would pre-flop raise to build the pot. However, if there are small stacks desperately trying to double up at your table, you can set the small stack trap.
If you are in early position, instead of raising with these hands, you will limp. This indicates a medium strength hand, and this limp will be much less likely to deter a small stack from going all in, as they might feel an all in would push you off of your limp bet.
The other advantage here is that the small stacks all in will most likely deter others from entering the pot, meaning it will be just you and the small stack going to the flop and beyond on their all in.
Of course, if a big stack yet to act raises your bet, then your focus shifts to playing that player instead of the small stack, as they can potentially cause a lot more damage to your chip stack. Fortunately, limping with a strong hand means you are well defended and ready to go to the flop with that big stack.
Most times, it is definitely wise to raise with a strong hand to build the pot and reduce the number of post flop players.
However, at the end of a tournament when surrounded by desperate small stacks, a strong hand that would otherwise deter their all in with a raise can instead be used as a trap, portraying a marginal hand giving the small stack the confidence to push.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Beware the min raise!
There is one move or bet size in poker that, in certain situations, should set off alarm bells.
That move is the min raise.
In order to understand why the min raise is so important, we need to understand why it is used by experienced poker players.
The min raise absolutely unequivically says the better wants you in the pot. They are pricing you in.
If you combine a min raise with an otherwise tight aggressive player then you know you are facing a strong hand.
Pre flop
When do players min raise pre-flop?
A player who has strong holdings with no callers before them, particulary in late position, may min-raise in order to tempt the remaining players, particularly the blinds, into calling with weaker holdings.
A player min raising with lots of players already in the pot most likely has a strong drawing hand, such as K Q suited. Usually (not always) a min raise pre flop does not indicate a strong made hand, such as queens or higher. Or the player feels they have a hand that would simply dominate if it hit on the flop, such as a set. A min raise pre-flop is simply a pot builder, the player making it likes the potential of their hand.
Post flop
Post flop, a min raise, especially from tight aggressive players, should set off alarm bells.
Why would someone min raise post flop?
Again, they are trying to keep their opponent(s) in the pot.
And, any time a players normal behavior changes, such as a normally aggressive player suddenly only min-raising, should also set off alarm bells.
So, if you raise pre-flop with A K. Only one caller from a tight aggressive player. Your K hits on the flop, the other cards seem to be insignificant non face cards. You decide to play aggressively, and, after the other player checks to you, you make a solid almost pot sized bet.
After waiting for a few moments the other player min-raises you. Top Pair Top Kicker is such a strong hand. What is going on here?
What could they have They called your decent raise pre-flop. Then, post flop they...
And here is another clue. Post flop they did not check right away, a few seconds passed before the check.
You assess their play prior to this hand. You cannot see a single situation where they went to showdown with anything weak, you cannot find a single example of them calling big raises post flop with weak holdings.
This is starting to look more and more like you have run into a set.
Generally, min raises on any street from an experienced player means the other player feels very strongly that their hand is the best hand, and are deliberatly pricing you in.
Slow down, think, and perform some serious assessment before making that easy call...
That move is the min raise.
In order to understand why the min raise is so important, we need to understand why it is used by experienced poker players.
The min raise absolutely unequivically says the better wants you in the pot. They are pricing you in.
If you combine a min raise with an otherwise tight aggressive player then you know you are facing a strong hand.
Pre flop
When do players min raise pre-flop?
A player who has strong holdings with no callers before them, particulary in late position, may min-raise in order to tempt the remaining players, particularly the blinds, into calling with weaker holdings.
A player min raising with lots of players already in the pot most likely has a strong drawing hand, such as K Q suited. Usually (not always) a min raise pre flop does not indicate a strong made hand, such as queens or higher. Or the player feels they have a hand that would simply dominate if it hit on the flop, such as a set. A min raise pre-flop is simply a pot builder, the player making it likes the potential of their hand.
Post flop
Post flop, a min raise, especially from tight aggressive players, should set off alarm bells.
Why would someone min raise post flop?
Again, they are trying to keep their opponent(s) in the pot.
And, any time a players normal behavior changes, such as a normally aggressive player suddenly only min-raising, should also set off alarm bells.
So, if you raise pre-flop with A K. Only one caller from a tight aggressive player. Your K hits on the flop, the other cards seem to be insignificant non face cards. You decide to play aggressively, and, after the other player checks to you, you make a solid almost pot sized bet.
After waiting for a few moments the other player min-raises you. Top Pair Top Kicker is such a strong hand. What is going on here?
What could they have They called your decent raise pre-flop. Then, post flop they...
And here is another clue. Post flop they did not check right away, a few seconds passed before the check.
You assess their play prior to this hand. You cannot see a single situation where they went to showdown with anything weak, you cannot find a single example of them calling big raises post flop with weak holdings.
This is starting to look more and more like you have run into a set.
Generally, min raises on any street from an experienced player means the other player feels very strongly that their hand is the best hand, and are deliberatly pricing you in.
Slow down, think, and perform some serious assessment before making that easy call...
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