There is one move or bet size in poker that, in certain situations, should set off alarm bells.
That move is the min raise.
In order to understand why the min raise is so important, we need to understand why it is used by experienced poker players.
The min raise absolutely unequivically says the better wants you in the pot. They are pricing you in.
If you combine a min raise with an otherwise tight aggressive player then you know you are facing a strong hand.
Pre flop
When do players min raise pre-flop?
A player who has strong holdings with no callers before them, particulary in late position, may min-raise in order to tempt the remaining players, particularly the blinds, into calling with weaker holdings.
A player min raising with lots of players already in the pot most likely has a strong drawing hand, such as K Q suited. Usually (not always) a min raise pre flop does not indicate a strong made hand, such as queens or higher. Or the player feels they have a hand that would simply dominate if it hit on the flop, such as a set. A min raise pre-flop is simply a pot builder, the player making it likes the potential of their hand.
Post flop
Post flop, a min raise, especially from tight aggressive players, should set off alarm bells.
Why would someone min raise post flop?
Again, they are trying to keep their opponent(s) in the pot.
And, any time a players normal behavior changes, such as a normally aggressive player suddenly only min-raising, should also set off alarm bells.
So, if you raise pre-flop with A K. Only one caller from a tight aggressive player. Your K hits on the flop, the other cards seem to be insignificant non face cards. You decide to play aggressively, and, after the other player checks to you, you make a solid almost pot sized bet.
After waiting for a few moments the other player min-raises you. Top Pair Top Kicker is such a strong hand. What is going on here?
What could they have They called your decent raise pre-flop. Then, post flop they...
And here is another clue. Post flop they did not check right away, a few seconds passed before the check.
You assess their play prior to this hand. You cannot see a single situation where they went to showdown with anything weak, you cannot find a single example of them calling big raises post flop with weak holdings.
This is starting to look more and more like you have run into a set.
Generally, min raises on any street from an experienced player means the other player feels very strongly that their hand is the best hand, and are deliberatly pricing you in.
Slow down, think, and perform some serious assessment before making that easy call...
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Exploiting Table Image
Sometimes, during a poker tournament, a set of circumstances occur that mean you have a specific table image.
Last night, I was involved in very few hands pre-flop, only made a couple of smallish continuation bets, checked the rest of the time, and folded to aggression. The two hands that did go to showdown ended up doubling me up each time, but both were very strong hands (a set and two pair) so other players watching these hands would know I need a strong hand before calling a big bet, I would usually fold.
If you look at just these facts without understanding the reasoning behind them, then you would put me safely in the rock category, meaning that aggression and big bets would get me to fold in most circumstances.
This affects the way other players play you.
I started getting lots of pre-flop raises and all ins.
Lots of players, even those who weren't being that aggressive otherwise, started betting into me.
So how does this get exploited?
Patience first. Then think.
I am seeing an observable repeatable pattern from multiple players that can be exploited. In four main ways:
1. Pre-flop. Push all in or call an all in with strong holdings to double up.
2. Both. Call a big pre flop raise and bet into the flop large.
3. Post flop. Play a pre-flop raise weakly until the river and then double any bets with good holdings.
4. Post flop. Make a large check raise.
The first is simply about range, you are waiting to establish a range on the pre-flop all in callers so that you can call near the top of their range.
The second is taking advantage of the rock reputation. Most players will believe when a rock calls a big pre-flop raise, and then believe that the rock has hit when they bet big post flop (particularly if they have seen examples of lots of flop checking and folding to raises in previous hands). There is bluffing opportunity here.
The third is trapping with a strong hand by playing it weakly. So, even though your hand that you raised with pre-flop has hit, you make the same weak continuation bet you have previously (2x bb). Your opponent calls. You check the turn. They check the turn. On the river, thanks to your reputation, they assume you have nothing. If they have position, you check, they bet, you at least double it. If you have position, you at least double their lead out be on the river.
The fourth is again taking advantage of the rock reputation. When a rock does make a big bet, most players without top notch holdings will fold. There is bluffing opportunity here.
As in all poker, even making the right decisions and moves doesn't guarantee victory, after being successful at using strategy number 4 for one hand, I called an over aggressive all in player from the small blind in the big blind. Who had pushed three times on me in the last 20 hands.
I called with A Q off.
They had JQ off.
They hit the J and I was out.
The outcome was not important. The important thing was understanding how table circumstances can lead to you having a specific table image, whether accurate or not. Figuring out ways of exploiting that table image will lead to profits over time.
Last night, I was involved in very few hands pre-flop, only made a couple of smallish continuation bets, checked the rest of the time, and folded to aggression. The two hands that did go to showdown ended up doubling me up each time, but both were very strong hands (a set and two pair) so other players watching these hands would know I need a strong hand before calling a big bet, I would usually fold.
If you look at just these facts without understanding the reasoning behind them, then you would put me safely in the rock category, meaning that aggression and big bets would get me to fold in most circumstances.
This affects the way other players play you.
I started getting lots of pre-flop raises and all ins.
Lots of players, even those who weren't being that aggressive otherwise, started betting into me.
So how does this get exploited?
Patience first. Then think.
I am seeing an observable repeatable pattern from multiple players that can be exploited. In four main ways:
1. Pre-flop. Push all in or call an all in with strong holdings to double up.
2. Both. Call a big pre flop raise and bet into the flop large.
3. Post flop. Play a pre-flop raise weakly until the river and then double any bets with good holdings.
4. Post flop. Make a large check raise.
The first is simply about range, you are waiting to establish a range on the pre-flop all in callers so that you can call near the top of their range.
The second is taking advantage of the rock reputation. Most players will believe when a rock calls a big pre-flop raise, and then believe that the rock has hit when they bet big post flop (particularly if they have seen examples of lots of flop checking and folding to raises in previous hands). There is bluffing opportunity here.
The third is trapping with a strong hand by playing it weakly. So, even though your hand that you raised with pre-flop has hit, you make the same weak continuation bet you have previously (2x bb). Your opponent calls. You check the turn. They check the turn. On the river, thanks to your reputation, they assume you have nothing. If they have position, you check, they bet, you at least double it. If you have position, you at least double their lead out be on the river.
The fourth is again taking advantage of the rock reputation. When a rock does make a big bet, most players without top notch holdings will fold. There is bluffing opportunity here.
As in all poker, even making the right decisions and moves doesn't guarantee victory, after being successful at using strategy number 4 for one hand, I called an over aggressive all in player from the small blind in the big blind. Who had pushed three times on me in the last 20 hands.
I called with A Q off.
They had JQ off.
They hit the J and I was out.
The outcome was not important. The important thing was understanding how table circumstances can lead to you having a specific table image, whether accurate or not. Figuring out ways of exploiting that table image will lead to profits over time.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Playing Ace King Pre Flop
An ACE KING as your starting cards in Texas Hold-em is one of the most desired hands, just after the big two pairs. Doyle Brunson however calls Ace King "Two tickets to Memphis", as in, playing these cards wrong will send you home in a hurry.
Whether or not you go all in yourself, or call an all in, is another key consideration.
Scenario 1, Calling an all in.
There is a mathmatical perspective that says any time you are facing an all in with an Ace King, you should call. I can't remember the precise values, but, if you called every all in you face with Ace King, you will win between 53 and 54% of the time. For those mathmatical players who focus soley on EV, perhaps this is a good approach for you.
Ace King is a DRAWING hand however, its merely Ace High if neither card hits. So, facing any made hand (a pair) puts you in a slightly disadvantaged coin flip situation. You have about a 2% disadvantage over a pair of two's, moving up to a 43 to 57% disadvantage to any pair starting at 10s. And of course you are at a distinct disadvantage against a pair of aces or kings, even if that likelyhood is reduced since you are also holding an ace and a king.
So, against a pair lower than kings, you are in a slightly badly weighted coin flip situation.
The real advantage of Ace King comes when the other player is also holding an ace with a lower kicker. Here is one situation where you would definitely want to call an all in.
So, if you are holding an ace king, and you are facing an all in, you should ask the following questions:
1. Is the other player very tight or conservative? Do they play very few hands? Have they gone all in before? A very tight player with a decent stack moving all in should set off alarm bells. You are almost certainly slightly behind here (10's to Q's) or worst case scenario, one of the big pairs. If a rock moves all in before you act, this might not be the time to call.
2. Are they short stacked? If they are, most likely their range is lowering, call them.
3. Do you know the other players all in range? Have they been trying to double up quickly as part of their tournament strategy? If a player has been going all in multiple times early in a tournament, and Ace King is a great calling hand.
Scenario 2. Pushing all in with Ace King.
Certainly, if you have an Ace King, and it is pre-flop, you are going to be raising, or if someone has raised before you, three bettting. What if you are again raised? Should you push? Or just call?
Any time you are going to push all in with less than the two big pairs, you need to do some careful analysis before making the move. The same holds true for Ace King.
Remember that the power of Ace King comes from hitting one of your cards, knowing what the flop contains and if you have hit can increase your odds of winning significantly. So, if you are in a situation where there are re-raises on your raise, then just calling and seeing the flop can secure a win or prevent further chip loss.
If however, you are facing a small stack that has a decent chunk invested in a pre-flop raise, then a push will either end up with a fold or perhaps a call on a weaker ace. Both are desirable outcomes.
Or, if you are facing what appears to be a steal attempt, then pushing can quickly send the message that you are not easy to blind steal from.
Otherwise, calling rather than pushing with Ace King (after raising yourself of course) can reduce losses.
Very short stacked players should always push all in with Ace King. Lots of inferior holdings are willing to call a small stack all in.
Would you ever limp with Ace King?
The majority of time, you should be raising or re-raising with your ace king pre-flop to increase pot size and therefore your winnings when it hits.
There are however a couple of situations where a call could be a deceptive strategy. One is if you have a blind punisher at the table. This player type loves it when four or more limps take place, they raise to 5x BB or more and take all of the blinds and antes. If two or more have limped in front of you, and you know the blind punisher is yet to act, a limp here followed by an all in to a blind stealer can be a satisfying result.
The other is if other players are hyper aggressive. If you can be CERTAIN that a specific player or player is going to raise, based on history, go ahead an limp. A hyper aggressive player is most certainly going to be behind when they raise your limp, a re-raise or push here can take their chips on inferior holdings.
So, unless you can be almost certain that you will be raised, always raise with Ace King and build the pot pre flop.
Whether or not you go all in yourself, or call an all in, is another key consideration.
Scenario 1, Calling an all in.
There is a mathmatical perspective that says any time you are facing an all in with an Ace King, you should call. I can't remember the precise values, but, if you called every all in you face with Ace King, you will win between 53 and 54% of the time. For those mathmatical players who focus soley on EV, perhaps this is a good approach for you.
Ace King is a DRAWING hand however, its merely Ace High if neither card hits. So, facing any made hand (a pair) puts you in a slightly disadvantaged coin flip situation. You have about a 2% disadvantage over a pair of two's, moving up to a 43 to 57% disadvantage to any pair starting at 10s. And of course you are at a distinct disadvantage against a pair of aces or kings, even if that likelyhood is reduced since you are also holding an ace and a king.
So, against a pair lower than kings, you are in a slightly badly weighted coin flip situation.
The real advantage of Ace King comes when the other player is also holding an ace with a lower kicker. Here is one situation where you would definitely want to call an all in.
So, if you are holding an ace king, and you are facing an all in, you should ask the following questions:
1. Is the other player very tight or conservative? Do they play very few hands? Have they gone all in before? A very tight player with a decent stack moving all in should set off alarm bells. You are almost certainly slightly behind here (10's to Q's) or worst case scenario, one of the big pairs. If a rock moves all in before you act, this might not be the time to call.
2. Are they short stacked? If they are, most likely their range is lowering, call them.
3. Do you know the other players all in range? Have they been trying to double up quickly as part of their tournament strategy? If a player has been going all in multiple times early in a tournament, and Ace King is a great calling hand.
Scenario 2. Pushing all in with Ace King.
Certainly, if you have an Ace King, and it is pre-flop, you are going to be raising, or if someone has raised before you, three bettting. What if you are again raised? Should you push? Or just call?
Any time you are going to push all in with less than the two big pairs, you need to do some careful analysis before making the move. The same holds true for Ace King.
Remember that the power of Ace King comes from hitting one of your cards, knowing what the flop contains and if you have hit can increase your odds of winning significantly. So, if you are in a situation where there are re-raises on your raise, then just calling and seeing the flop can secure a win or prevent further chip loss.
If however, you are facing a small stack that has a decent chunk invested in a pre-flop raise, then a push will either end up with a fold or perhaps a call on a weaker ace. Both are desirable outcomes.
Or, if you are facing what appears to be a steal attempt, then pushing can quickly send the message that you are not easy to blind steal from.
Otherwise, calling rather than pushing with Ace King (after raising yourself of course) can reduce losses.
Very short stacked players should always push all in with Ace King. Lots of inferior holdings are willing to call a small stack all in.
Would you ever limp with Ace King?
The majority of time, you should be raising or re-raising with your ace king pre-flop to increase pot size and therefore your winnings when it hits.
There are however a couple of situations where a call could be a deceptive strategy. One is if you have a blind punisher at the table. This player type loves it when four or more limps take place, they raise to 5x BB or more and take all of the blinds and antes. If two or more have limped in front of you, and you know the blind punisher is yet to act, a limp here followed by an all in to a blind stealer can be a satisfying result.
The other is if other players are hyper aggressive. If you can be CERTAIN that a specific player or player is going to raise, based on history, go ahead an limp. A hyper aggressive player is most certainly going to be behind when they raise your limp, a re-raise or push here can take their chips on inferior holdings.
So, unless you can be almost certain that you will be raised, always raise with Ace King and build the pot pre flop.
Milestone Reached!
Have been playing a number of larger online tournaments over the last little while, and recently achieved a second in a tournament that netted over 500 bucks!
Tight aggressive was the playing style, kept the number of bluffs down until I could be more certain of folds in specific situations, pushed hard and aggressively if I thought I was ahead, and folded to aggression from players to be respected in specific situations.
The first milestone I achieved was in early 2010, when I was no longer in debt (I had won more than I spent on pokerstars, and had paid back all money spent on pokerstars).
This one means my career winnings have passed the 2000 dollar mark, not making me rich anytime soon but not bad for a passtime!
Tight aggressive was the playing style, kept the number of bluffs down until I could be more certain of folds in specific situations, pushed hard and aggressively if I thought I was ahead, and folded to aggression from players to be respected in specific situations.
The first milestone I achieved was in early 2010, when I was no longer in debt (I had won more than I spent on pokerstars, and had paid back all money spent on pokerstars).
This one means my career winnings have passed the 2000 dollar mark, not making me rich anytime soon but not bad for a passtime!
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Earning the right to bluff.
When you first start a poker tournament, you normally have a wide range of playing styles facing you, from wild overbetters to calling stations. Unless you are able to isolate conservative players, making bluffs into this blend of players is usually a bad idea.
The first task when starting any new tournament is to get an idea of the type of players you are facing, this will help guide your playing style, especially when you have aggressive players at your table. Some players will call a lot of big bets on second pair or unlikely draws, outright bluffing without first knowing the texture of the table is definitely a high risk manouver.
Over time, a couple of things happen. Calling stations with non-premium hands will be chipping out as people adapt to their playing style. Wild players, barring a run of luck, will have quickly gone out. The tournament players that remain are now more likely to believe bluffs.
If, over this time period, you have been playing a tight game, and only betting out on reasonable hits or draws, hopefully earning some chips, other players will have starting noting your playing style. When you make it to showdown, win or loose, your cards are going to be reviewed by the other players. Make sure your bets made sense, you bet out when your king hits, re-raised on two pairs, etc. You want other players to believe that when you bet, especially big, you have a big hand.
The combination of loosing players that call far too many hands with your own tight play will lead to bigger bluff opportunities later on. It typically takes a very strong bet to take a player off of top pair, early on in a tournament some players are prepared to go all in. But later on in a tournament, with a player you have seen over 75 hands with, you may have earned the right for a huge bluff that takes a big pot down.
All bluffs should make sense, if you are in a pot and an ace hits on the turn, you can make a big raise here representing the ace. Your bluff stands a much better chance of being believed than earlier on in the tournament.
Early on in a tournament, even the most well executed bluff can be called by bad players. Earning the right to bluff certain players can take time, but can also pay off well in the critical mid tournament stages.
The first task when starting any new tournament is to get an idea of the type of players you are facing, this will help guide your playing style, especially when you have aggressive players at your table. Some players will call a lot of big bets on second pair or unlikely draws, outright bluffing without first knowing the texture of the table is definitely a high risk manouver.
Over time, a couple of things happen. Calling stations with non-premium hands will be chipping out as people adapt to their playing style. Wild players, barring a run of luck, will have quickly gone out. The tournament players that remain are now more likely to believe bluffs.
If, over this time period, you have been playing a tight game, and only betting out on reasonable hits or draws, hopefully earning some chips, other players will have starting noting your playing style. When you make it to showdown, win or loose, your cards are going to be reviewed by the other players. Make sure your bets made sense, you bet out when your king hits, re-raised on two pairs, etc. You want other players to believe that when you bet, especially big, you have a big hand.
The combination of loosing players that call far too many hands with your own tight play will lead to bigger bluff opportunities later on. It typically takes a very strong bet to take a player off of top pair, early on in a tournament some players are prepared to go all in. But later on in a tournament, with a player you have seen over 75 hands with, you may have earned the right for a huge bluff that takes a big pot down.
All bluffs should make sense, if you are in a pot and an ace hits on the turn, you can make a big raise here representing the ace. Your bluff stands a much better chance of being believed than earlier on in the tournament.
Early on in a tournament, even the most well executed bluff can be called by bad players. Earning the right to bluff certain players can take time, but can also pay off well in the critical mid tournament stages.
Monday, December 27, 2010
Looking for opportunities
As you move beyond basic poker play, understanding the value of pairs, knowing odds on draws, adapting your play to other players, you rely on the actual strength of cards less and less as you start to seek opportunities.
You begin to increase your winnings not by having stronger cards, but by looking for other signs that indicate you may still be able to win the hand.
Rather than sticking to any specific playing strategy, you being to adapt your play to the playing style on the table, and the players on that table.
Poker moves from a game about cards to a game about players, seeking opportunities to lighten players of their stack.
The easiest players to play are rocks, conservative players who always wait for premium hands and only bet or call bets when they hit.
If you are on the button or small blind, and a rock is sitting in the big blind, any raise will take down the blinds from that player unless they have a hand. It doesn't matter what you have in your hand, a rock in the blinds is a clear steal indicator.
Even if they call, if the flop does not have an ace or two or more face cards, then the odds are they have missed. A modest continuation bet here will also take the pot away from the rock. Any calls or raises and you are facing a strong hand. So time to get out unless you have the same.
Another key area, particularly in the starting stages of a tournament, is to establish over aggressive player all in range. Of course, if you have either of the big pairs, you are going to be calling an all in from any player. If there is a player who is aggressively looking to double up however, you spend the time establishing range on this player, and getting ready to call their all in on a strong pair like 9s or 10s.
The classic continuation bet trap works as follows. An aggressive player makes a pre-flop raise. You call. The flop comes down. The aggressive player makes a continuation bet. You call. They check on the turn. You make a bet the same size as their continuation bet. They fold. This is another opportunity to seek. Is there a player who makes continuation bets every time they re-flop raise? If so, this technique can be used to take their chips when they miss.
Increasing your winnings by seeking opportunities marks the movement from a poker player relying on luck and good cards to a poker player relying on skill. In extreme cases, I have doubled up over time or more without having a single hand. Of course, the players I am playing are what provide this opportunity, careful analysis can increase your winning ratio.
You begin to increase your winnings not by having stronger cards, but by looking for other signs that indicate you may still be able to win the hand.
Rather than sticking to any specific playing strategy, you being to adapt your play to the playing style on the table, and the players on that table.
Poker moves from a game about cards to a game about players, seeking opportunities to lighten players of their stack.
The easiest players to play are rocks, conservative players who always wait for premium hands and only bet or call bets when they hit.
If you are on the button or small blind, and a rock is sitting in the big blind, any raise will take down the blinds from that player unless they have a hand. It doesn't matter what you have in your hand, a rock in the blinds is a clear steal indicator.
Even if they call, if the flop does not have an ace or two or more face cards, then the odds are they have missed. A modest continuation bet here will also take the pot away from the rock. Any calls or raises and you are facing a strong hand. So time to get out unless you have the same.
Another key area, particularly in the starting stages of a tournament, is to establish over aggressive player all in range. Of course, if you have either of the big pairs, you are going to be calling an all in from any player. If there is a player who is aggressively looking to double up however, you spend the time establishing range on this player, and getting ready to call their all in on a strong pair like 9s or 10s.
The classic continuation bet trap works as follows. An aggressive player makes a pre-flop raise. You call. The flop comes down. The aggressive player makes a continuation bet. You call. They check on the turn. You make a bet the same size as their continuation bet. They fold. This is another opportunity to seek. Is there a player who makes continuation bets every time they re-flop raise? If so, this technique can be used to take their chips when they miss.
Increasing your winnings by seeking opportunities marks the movement from a poker player relying on luck and good cards to a poker player relying on skill. In extreme cases, I have doubled up over time or more without having a single hand. Of course, the players I am playing are what provide this opportunity, careful analysis can increase your winning ratio.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Real life poker tells #3, preparing for battle
There is a general category of poker tells called "preparing for battle". There are a few different tells that all mean the same thing, we will go over these below. But first, knowing the motivation for preparing for battle can help you know when the other player has a strong hand.
Preparing for battle simply means you are getting ready to seriously play your hand, and that your tells or group of tells indicate this. So, pre-flop preparing for battle includes any tell that means you are getting ready to play the hand, shifting your seat position from relaxed to attentive, moving or leaning your body closer to the table, looking at your opponents around the table carefully before making a bet.
Post flop, the signs may be even more obvious as more of the hand has been revealled. If a soldier is preparing to charge, they would typically inhale, their shoulders would raise, and they would lean in. The same happens post flop if a player has a hand they are definitely interested in continuing to play, that is, most likely, their hand has either hit big or has significantly improved.
So, if player shows the following tells, they are preparing for battle, getting ready to play their hand in a serious way:
1. Big inhale when the flop hits.
2. Moving from a slouch to a more attentive position at the table.
3. Looking over other players and chip stacks carefully before making a move.
4. Looking at the players they feel are their competition in the current pot and looking down at them with their chin and nose up. This tell is also sometimes combined with the inhale. It means I think I have you beat and am now planning a chip extraction strategy. (the opposite to this tell is lowering their head and looking down when the flop hits, this indicates lack of interest in the flop or hand).
5. Placing hands or arms on the table when they were formerly at the players side, on their lap.
Generally, any tell that shows an increased level of interest in the hand than the players baseline behaviour is one that falls into the preparing for battle category. This can generally indicate strength to you, and you can adjust your game accordingly.
Preparing for battle simply means you are getting ready to seriously play your hand, and that your tells or group of tells indicate this. So, pre-flop preparing for battle includes any tell that means you are getting ready to play the hand, shifting your seat position from relaxed to attentive, moving or leaning your body closer to the table, looking at your opponents around the table carefully before making a bet.
Post flop, the signs may be even more obvious as more of the hand has been revealled. If a soldier is preparing to charge, they would typically inhale, their shoulders would raise, and they would lean in. The same happens post flop if a player has a hand they are definitely interested in continuing to play, that is, most likely, their hand has either hit big or has significantly improved.
So, if player shows the following tells, they are preparing for battle, getting ready to play their hand in a serious way:
1. Big inhale when the flop hits.
2. Moving from a slouch to a more attentive position at the table.
3. Looking over other players and chip stacks carefully before making a move.
4. Looking at the players they feel are their competition in the current pot and looking down at them with their chin and nose up. This tell is also sometimes combined with the inhale. It means I think I have you beat and am now planning a chip extraction strategy. (the opposite to this tell is lowering their head and looking down when the flop hits, this indicates lack of interest in the flop or hand).
5. Placing hands or arms on the table when they were formerly at the players side, on their lap.
Generally, any tell that shows an increased level of interest in the hand than the players baseline behaviour is one that falls into the preparing for battle category. This can generally indicate strength to you, and you can adjust your game accordingly.
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