Upon recommendation from a friend, I decided to download hold-em manager, a hand tracking and analysis tool used to assist in online poker play.
It is really two different tools, one is the HUD that hovers over the players heads displaying in game data as it happens. The other is a data analysis tool.
So, I decided to perform an experiment. Over the last 6 months, I have played the 4.40 buy in 180 person tournament almost 20 times, placed twice, for a loss of over 60 bucks. My biggest overall loss in money has come from this tournament size and buy in.
So, I reasoned, if I could play at these tournaments using the hand manager tool and improve, then maybe there is something to this. And I also wanted practice before the weekly 11$ tournament. I decided to try the tournament 4 times.
It did help. It identified nicely the two extremes of players, the "Wait for the nuts" players and the "I want to see every flop" players. I was able to be a bit more wary of the tight players as I was more sure of the reads, and more likely to keep following a second pair or weak draw on the very loose players. Other stats around CBetting and post flop aggression also assisted in making correct decisions.
So, in those 4 tournaments I placed twice, both times higher than I ever had before, and I ended up with a net profit of almost 20 bucks. Not bad!
Played it this weekend on the $11 dollar buy in, and liked the additional information it gave. Didn't place higher, but, in combination with other information, such as player stack size, position, prior betting habits, amount of time they take to bet, and perhaps a read on their current "gear", I was able to make some choices I was confident in.
Did recognize however their are some dangers to using this tool.
Dangers of the HUD
While I recognize that this tool organizes my reads a bit better, and is able to remember players that leave the table and come back later, I also have to watch out for the pitfalls:
1. This tool does NOT replace good reads. It supplements them. Just like the multi-table grinding, using JUST this tool for your reads may result in slow profit at lower levels over time, but I don't believe the profit is optimized.
2. This tool represents much of the data as AVERAGES over time. You still have to be very aware of when a player changes gears. Just because they are in 40% of the pots doesn't mean that right now they aren't holding a strong hand, perhaps a recently called bluff has tightened them up, or a strong bet from you gets called when they typically fold to real aggression.
3. And you still have to be very aware of the CONTEXT of the actions of the other players. Sure, a player who is in more than 50% of the pots has a lower range, and if they always CBET, then it is much more likely that they are not holding a strong hand when they do continuation bet, but, if you JUST use the tool, the context is lost. So if that aggressive player pre-flop raises, then CBETS after the flop, you also have to consider who they are playing against, what position they raised from, etc. Because an aggressive loose player who is also skilled will not be aggressive loose against a conservative player who is calling their action, they will tighten up. The tool won't tell you that, good reads otherwise of players habits will.
4. This tool cannot be an excuse for not paying attention to the game, such as surfing the net, watching TV or whatever. I have found over time these to be money loosing activities if combined with poker.
So, so far so good, probably buying this tool, but wanting to be wary that it doesn't replace other important sources of information.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Real life poker tells #1
The Loudest Guy at the Table
As I learn about tells, I learn the most obvious first. And this tell has definitely been the most obvious of any I have seen at Real Life tournaments.
Quite often, during a poker tournament, one of the players at the table is involved in a lot more of the conversations than anyone else, could be lots of joking, lots of opinions, or just general banter.
This type of player is very easy to pick out from the group.
And it is most obvious, of any of the player types, when this persons behaviour changes.
As with all players that you play at the poker table, we are trying to establish a baseline of behavior, behaviour that represents the players "normal" state.
And if the player is normally loud, social, and involved in a lot of conversations, then they are also the easiest with which to establish a baseline.
When Loud Players Go Quiet
So what happens when the loud player suddenly goes quiet? What does it mean? It depends on the context of the hand.
If a loud player suddenly goes quiet after observing thier hole cards, they intend to play the hand.
How does this help you? If the table is looking at their hole cards in sequence, and the loud player is acting before you, when they go quiet and raise the pot, its probably time to fold unless you have a really strong hand.
And if they are acting after you, you can still associate their silence and bet with strength, tread very carefully or fold if you limped in before they acted.
What about if they go silent after the flop?
This one is key, because the timing of the silence is the key to the strength of the hand.
If they go silent as soon as the flop comes down, they have hit the flop. And are intending to play. Unless you have also hit the flop or are priced in on draws, its a good time to fold.
If they remain loud however after the flop, but after consideration make a large bet and then go silent, then this is a bluffing sign.
Before any real chips are risked on these type of reads, the loud player should be observed in hands that you are not involved in, to see if the theory proves correct. I like to verify a read two or three times before I put chips on them.
But when the loud player goes quiet, depending on the circumstance, you can get out of trouble, or, even better...
... call them on that huge bluff.
As I learn about tells, I learn the most obvious first. And this tell has definitely been the most obvious of any I have seen at Real Life tournaments.
Quite often, during a poker tournament, one of the players at the table is involved in a lot more of the conversations than anyone else, could be lots of joking, lots of opinions, or just general banter.
This type of player is very easy to pick out from the group.
And it is most obvious, of any of the player types, when this persons behaviour changes.
As with all players that you play at the poker table, we are trying to establish a baseline of behavior, behaviour that represents the players "normal" state.
And if the player is normally loud, social, and involved in a lot of conversations, then they are also the easiest with which to establish a baseline.
When Loud Players Go Quiet
So what happens when the loud player suddenly goes quiet? What does it mean? It depends on the context of the hand.
If a loud player suddenly goes quiet after observing thier hole cards, they intend to play the hand.
How does this help you? If the table is looking at their hole cards in sequence, and the loud player is acting before you, when they go quiet and raise the pot, its probably time to fold unless you have a really strong hand.
And if they are acting after you, you can still associate their silence and bet with strength, tread very carefully or fold if you limped in before they acted.
What about if they go silent after the flop?
This one is key, because the timing of the silence is the key to the strength of the hand.
If they go silent as soon as the flop comes down, they have hit the flop. And are intending to play. Unless you have also hit the flop or are priced in on draws, its a good time to fold.
If they remain loud however after the flop, but after consideration make a large bet and then go silent, then this is a bluffing sign.
Before any real chips are risked on these type of reads, the loud player should be observed in hands that you are not involved in, to see if the theory proves correct. I like to verify a read two or three times before I put chips on them.
But when the loud player goes quiet, depending on the circumstance, you can get out of trouble, or, even better...
... call them on that huge bluff.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Real Life Poker Tells - 101
The hardest thing about tells is getting started. Beyond looking at someone when they make a big move at you and thinking "Do I believe them?", its hard to know where to start.
And there is so much information to see, how do you know what means something, and what doesn't?
Since we can't see all players at all times, we need to carefully select when to observe behavior. Beyond that though, there are other good reasons for keeping the amount of observation to a minimum.
1. You only want to spend time finding out important information, as its impossible to remember everything anyway.
2. Too much staring isn't appropriate.
3. Being obvious about looking for tells is going to make other players more conscious of hiding them.
So when are the two most important times to observe other players? Any time new cards are revealed, or other new information, such as a big bet, occurs. The two most obvious being:
1. Reading the hole cards.
2. Watching the flop.
If you observe players when they are looking at something else, such as their hole cards or the flop, they won't be aware of you looking for tells, and, more importantly, their tells will be most pronounced and accurate during the first moments they see these cards.
Any time there is a big decision, you want to be looking at the other players face when the decision has to be made, or if a big event has occured, a re-raise or all in, you want to be looking at the other players reaction to this event.
Knowing WHEN to look for tells is a good first step towards adding this strategy to your poker arsenal. Focus on the information that is key to making decisions later.
And there is so much information to see, how do you know what means something, and what doesn't?
Since we can't see all players at all times, we need to carefully select when to observe behavior. Beyond that though, there are other good reasons for keeping the amount of observation to a minimum.
1. You only want to spend time finding out important information, as its impossible to remember everything anyway.
2. Too much staring isn't appropriate.
3. Being obvious about looking for tells is going to make other players more conscious of hiding them.
So when are the two most important times to observe other players? Any time new cards are revealed, or other new information, such as a big bet, occurs. The two most obvious being:
1. Reading the hole cards.
2. Watching the flop.
If you observe players when they are looking at something else, such as their hole cards or the flop, they won't be aware of you looking for tells, and, more importantly, their tells will be most pronounced and accurate during the first moments they see these cards.
Any time there is a big decision, you want to be looking at the other players face when the decision has to be made, or if a big event has occured, a re-raise or all in, you want to be looking at the other players reaction to this event.
Knowing WHEN to look for tells is a good first step towards adding this strategy to your poker arsenal. Focus on the information that is key to making decisions later.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
The plan
Started playing online poker about 6 months ago.
Did alright in the sit and go's, didn't make any money, but won enough to at least be encouraged, I won back over time about 70% of my investment, so a slow decline in funds but nothing rediculous. All on 1 and 3 dollar sit and goes.
But what I really enjoyed, when I could find the time, was the really large 1000+ person tournaments. I like the way the game changes as the blinds move up, the pacing, the sudden all or nothing decisions followed by 12 hands hitting the muck preflop.
I did ok there too, breaking the bubble about 1 in 7 times before one tournament a month and a half ago. Where I got third, for 851 bucks.
That was more than twice what I had spent online in total so far so really it didn't take much convincing that these tournaments were the way to go.
So, paid back all of the money I had put into poker stars, and then the rest is a bankroll. About 500 bucks.
And now, of course, like all poker players, I want to make as much money as possible in the shortest period of time. And have a blast doing so of course.
So, except for the occasional sit and go, I am now playing $11 buy in online large tournaments of 2000+ people. The final table is rediculously lucrative.
And, out of 6 tournaments so far, have gotten past the bubble once to 83rd for 104 bucks.
If my bankroll goes below 150 though its back to the $3 dollar tournaments to try and learn more.
But I would certainly much rather learn on the way to a 12 thousand dollar payday!
Did alright in the sit and go's, didn't make any money, but won enough to at least be encouraged, I won back over time about 70% of my investment, so a slow decline in funds but nothing rediculous. All on 1 and 3 dollar sit and goes.
But what I really enjoyed, when I could find the time, was the really large 1000+ person tournaments. I like the way the game changes as the blinds move up, the pacing, the sudden all or nothing decisions followed by 12 hands hitting the muck preflop.
I did ok there too, breaking the bubble about 1 in 7 times before one tournament a month and a half ago. Where I got third, for 851 bucks.
That was more than twice what I had spent online in total so far so really it didn't take much convincing that these tournaments were the way to go.
So, paid back all of the money I had put into poker stars, and then the rest is a bankroll. About 500 bucks.
And now, of course, like all poker players, I want to make as much money as possible in the shortest period of time. And have a blast doing so of course.
So, except for the occasional sit and go, I am now playing $11 buy in online large tournaments of 2000+ people. The final table is rediculously lucrative.
And, out of 6 tournaments so far, have gotten past the bubble once to 83rd for 104 bucks.
If my bankroll goes below 150 though its back to the $3 dollar tournaments to try and learn more.
But I would certainly much rather learn on the way to a 12 thousand dollar payday!
Why this blog?
Despite the supreme pleasure my wife takes in every nuance of every exciting online poker hand I describe to her, I decided that perhaps I needed another outlet.
I have also been working to develop strategies that work for me, that end up with me making money. There is so much ability through hand history to assess and adjust your game, its a challenge I find very rewarding.
So this blog is also my notes. Its a way of trying to remember each strategy as I try them. I know the tone is very "teachy", but I seem to learn things best if I have to then teach them to someone else. Something about how you have to organize your thoughts before you can pass them on. It got me through college, its now teachin me poker!
So, lots of ideas and strategies here that you may or may not agree with. And hopefully an ever improving understanding of the game of poker.
I have also been working to develop strategies that work for me, that end up with me making money. There is so much ability through hand history to assess and adjust your game, its a challenge I find very rewarding.
So this blog is also my notes. Its a way of trying to remember each strategy as I try them. I know the tone is very "teachy", but I seem to learn things best if I have to then teach them to someone else. Something about how you have to organize your thoughts before you can pass them on. It got me through college, its now teachin me poker!
So, lots of ideas and strategies here that you may or may not agree with. And hopefully an ever improving understanding of the game of poker.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Playing as the micro stack
When you stack has shrunk to below 10x the big blind, especially when 7x or below, poker wisdom states that you are now in desperation mode, and that all ins on ace anything or any hand with any strength are your last desperate gambit to double up.
I disagree.
I have been reviewing hand histories and have discoved that you can survive in a large tournament, even get back into the action, with a stack hovering around 3 to 7 x the big blind.
My best tournament result ever, 3rd in a 3$ buy in large tourney for $851, included 20 minutes of play where the stack was down as low as 2x the big blind.
And last night, 11$ buy in 2300 person tourney, I spent the last hour of the tournament at less than 10x the big blind, with 20 hands at 3x the big blind or less. Which meant my finish went from a $60 300th place finish to a $104 83rd place finish.
Having a stack this low doesn't mean your completely desperate and should give up in a desperation ace nothing move, it simply means you will have two key decisions to make at some point in the near future.
- Whether you will call or raise pre flop.
- Whether you will all in or fold post flop.
As the micro stack, you have no turn or river decisions, you have just the pre and post flop decision.
If you are the micro stack at the table, you will have been playing the same players for a while, and should have them grouped into categories:
Super aggressive big stack.
Tight aggressive big stack.
Any aggressive players (in a lot of hands).
Desperate short stacks.
Rocks (only premium, only play on big flop hits).
The players you end up playing against will determine large in your decision making.
The other key to micro stack playing is the pot odds play a huge role in determining what you are going to play with.
Here is the basic strategy:
1. Calling is a viable alternative to going all in and is recommended for drawing hands. If you are calling, you are also willing to call a raise doubling your bet, due to pot odds.
2. Made hands are all ins, 55s and up.
3. The basic calling strategy is call with your drawing hand (K J), and if either card hits post flop, go all in. If a conservative player has raised before you, fold pre flop.
4. Pot odd weigh heavily on decisions. If ever the pot odds are 1 in 5 or greater, call to particate in the flop.
5. At this stack size, your all-ins have very little impact on other pre-flop play, especially from early position. Instead call with strong drawing hands and A x hands. Go all in when they hit on the flop.
6. When you miss on the flop fold.
You may seem to be in desperate circumstances but even with 3x the big blind and antes, you still will have 16 hands to play before the blinds wipe you out. So the other non-conventional component of this strategy is patience.
Reading other players and playing position also influence decisions.
So, if you have A 3 off and are first to play, you have two choices, fold or call. Not go all in. All in from first position is a bad idea because:
1. Your all in doesn't have any real impact for multiple stacks at the table. You are going to get called. Whether you limp in or go all in here is not going to have much influence on the final outcome of the pre-flop betting.
2. Any other ace will likely have you dominated and will almost definitely be at least calling here. A big raise from a strong ace is an opportunity to escape pre flop.
When you call here you are in the two decision area. If you hit your ace on the flop you are all in. If not, you are folding to any action. The only reason you would bluff here is if you are playing against conservative players who are playing their cards, who will fold if they miss regardless of the player betting into them.
On the button however, you have an easy call if more than two others have limped in, due to rediculous pot odds.
And, if everyone had folded to you, and neither the small or big blind are super aggressive big stacks, you do go all in here with the A 3. Your all in here has impact, at least on more conservative players, if neither player has at least a medium strength hand, they will both fold.
Post flop play is simple, if you hit, all in, miss, fold. There is room for the very occasional bluff with tight stacks checking to you.
Any time pot odds are greater than 1 in 5, call. And follow the same rules for post flop action on your cards, if either hit, you go all in.
In summary, instead of putting all your chips in at 7x the bb on Ace three, call with the hand and see what the flop brings. Even at 7x the bb, you may still be able to play two or three more hands and double or more up, wait until you can be more certain that you are ahead before committing your entire stack.
All ins have less impact on other pre-flop play, so anticipate they will always be called. So don't go all in on drawing hands.
Call instead and waiting for hits.
Range goes down as pot odds go up. The opportunity to triple up or more is never missed unless a conservative player has re-raised before you.
Of course, the goal of all of this careful play is to at least double up, and get back into the action where a wider range of strategies are available. That is why pot odds are so key. But that necessity to double up shouldn't overtake careful play, a little patience can increase your odds of actually doubling up when you do hit.
This approach has taken me through thin parts of multiple tournaments now and eventually on to my two best monetary finishes yet. Its a combination of patience for the right cards and sudden vital decisions that may determine your future. Make those decisions carefully and you can not only survive the micro stack, you can escape.
I disagree.
I have been reviewing hand histories and have discoved that you can survive in a large tournament, even get back into the action, with a stack hovering around 3 to 7 x the big blind.
My best tournament result ever, 3rd in a 3$ buy in large tourney for $851, included 20 minutes of play where the stack was down as low as 2x the big blind.
And last night, 11$ buy in 2300 person tourney, I spent the last hour of the tournament at less than 10x the big blind, with 20 hands at 3x the big blind or less. Which meant my finish went from a $60 300th place finish to a $104 83rd place finish.
Having a stack this low doesn't mean your completely desperate and should give up in a desperation ace nothing move, it simply means you will have two key decisions to make at some point in the near future.
- Whether you will call or raise pre flop.
- Whether you will all in or fold post flop.
As the micro stack, you have no turn or river decisions, you have just the pre and post flop decision.
If you are the micro stack at the table, you will have been playing the same players for a while, and should have them grouped into categories:
Super aggressive big stack.
Tight aggressive big stack.
Any aggressive players (in a lot of hands).
Desperate short stacks.
Rocks (only premium, only play on big flop hits).
The players you end up playing against will determine large in your decision making.
The other key to micro stack playing is the pot odds play a huge role in determining what you are going to play with.
Here is the basic strategy:
1. Calling is a viable alternative to going all in and is recommended for drawing hands. If you are calling, you are also willing to call a raise doubling your bet, due to pot odds.
2. Made hands are all ins, 55s and up.
3. The basic calling strategy is call with your drawing hand (K J), and if either card hits post flop, go all in. If a conservative player has raised before you, fold pre flop.
4. Pot odd weigh heavily on decisions. If ever the pot odds are 1 in 5 or greater, call to particate in the flop.
5. At this stack size, your all-ins have very little impact on other pre-flop play, especially from early position. Instead call with strong drawing hands and A x hands. Go all in when they hit on the flop.
6. When you miss on the flop fold.
You may seem to be in desperate circumstances but even with 3x the big blind and antes, you still will have 16 hands to play before the blinds wipe you out. So the other non-conventional component of this strategy is patience.
Reading other players and playing position also influence decisions.
So, if you have A 3 off and are first to play, you have two choices, fold or call. Not go all in. All in from first position is a bad idea because:
1. Your all in doesn't have any real impact for multiple stacks at the table. You are going to get called. Whether you limp in or go all in here is not going to have much influence on the final outcome of the pre-flop betting.
2. Any other ace will likely have you dominated and will almost definitely be at least calling here. A big raise from a strong ace is an opportunity to escape pre flop.
When you call here you are in the two decision area. If you hit your ace on the flop you are all in. If not, you are folding to any action. The only reason you would bluff here is if you are playing against conservative players who are playing their cards, who will fold if they miss regardless of the player betting into them.
On the button however, you have an easy call if more than two others have limped in, due to rediculous pot odds.
And, if everyone had folded to you, and neither the small or big blind are super aggressive big stacks, you do go all in here with the A 3. Your all in here has impact, at least on more conservative players, if neither player has at least a medium strength hand, they will both fold.
Post flop play is simple, if you hit, all in, miss, fold. There is room for the very occasional bluff with tight stacks checking to you.
Any time pot odds are greater than 1 in 5, call. And follow the same rules for post flop action on your cards, if either hit, you go all in.
In summary, instead of putting all your chips in at 7x the bb on Ace three, call with the hand and see what the flop brings. Even at 7x the bb, you may still be able to play two or three more hands and double or more up, wait until you can be more certain that you are ahead before committing your entire stack.
All ins have less impact on other pre-flop play, so anticipate they will always be called. So don't go all in on drawing hands.
Call instead and waiting for hits.
Range goes down as pot odds go up. The opportunity to triple up or more is never missed unless a conservative player has re-raised before you.
Of course, the goal of all of this careful play is to at least double up, and get back into the action where a wider range of strategies are available. That is why pot odds are so key. But that necessity to double up shouldn't overtake careful play, a little patience can increase your odds of actually doubling up when you do hit.
This approach has taken me through thin parts of multiple tournaments now and eventually on to my two best monetary finishes yet. Its a combination of patience for the right cards and sudden vital decisions that may determine your future. Make those decisions carefully and you can not only survive the micro stack, you can escape.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Predicting a players behaviour (online reads)
There are three different pieces of information you can use to predict what a players actions may mean. They include in order of importance:
1. Players prior history.
2. Size of bet.
3. Speed of bet.
And possibly in a distant fourth, online chat.
The most important way to accurately predict what players actions mean is to review their actions in prior hands, both by observing and reviewing hand history. On all ins, you can follow how the player bets pre-flop and start to establish pre-flop range. Then watch how they bet through the hand, do they bluff? Did they bet when they hit? Did they slow play?
What you are trying to establish is a baseline, normal behaviour for that player. You are attempting to establish both a range of cards that this player considers playable, and the range of bets they make when they hit or bluff.
How quickly does this player make bets? Does it vary greatly? What hands do they hold when they bet out quickly?
All of this information is combined with their current actions in an attempt to predict the players cards.
One example of reading bet size is a hand I had recently where I hadn't hit on the flop at all, but a super aggressive big stack had predictably and aggressively raised both pre flop and now on post flop. An overbet. I knew from hand history that he would bet out on almost any flop, but the bet was over one half my stack size. I called and watched to see what happened on the turn.
First off, the decision took a long time. How long would you take when your the big stack to make a decision if you had any real strength? Secondly, the size of the bet was smaller than the flop bet, 1/2 the size. It seemed feeble. I re-raised all in on nothing and won that pot.
Of course, sometimes reads are way off, or sometimes you get the odd river donk, but, I hope, over the long term, spending the time attempting to establish baseline behaviour will result in good decision making.
1. Players prior history.
2. Size of bet.
3. Speed of bet.
And possibly in a distant fourth, online chat.
The most important way to accurately predict what players actions mean is to review their actions in prior hands, both by observing and reviewing hand history. On all ins, you can follow how the player bets pre-flop and start to establish pre-flop range. Then watch how they bet through the hand, do they bluff? Did they bet when they hit? Did they slow play?
What you are trying to establish is a baseline, normal behaviour for that player. You are attempting to establish both a range of cards that this player considers playable, and the range of bets they make when they hit or bluff.
How quickly does this player make bets? Does it vary greatly? What hands do they hold when they bet out quickly?
All of this information is combined with their current actions in an attempt to predict the players cards.
One example of reading bet size is a hand I had recently where I hadn't hit on the flop at all, but a super aggressive big stack had predictably and aggressively raised both pre flop and now on post flop. An overbet. I knew from hand history that he would bet out on almost any flop, but the bet was over one half my stack size. I called and watched to see what happened on the turn.
First off, the decision took a long time. How long would you take when your the big stack to make a decision if you had any real strength? Secondly, the size of the bet was smaller than the flop bet, 1/2 the size. It seemed feeble. I re-raised all in on nothing and won that pot.
Of course, sometimes reads are way off, or sometimes you get the odd river donk, but, I hope, over the long term, spending the time attempting to establish baseline behaviour will result in good decision making.
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