I have been caught a couple of times now by a situation where my range on a super aggressive big stack was dead on, but I got caught out by the third man in the pot.
Put simply, my A J off was dominant against the super aggressive big stack raise, but when a normally tight third player also calls the big raise, my hand may no longer be ahead.
The situation outlined in my prior big stack post, where my A kicker was correctly higher than the big stack, but I get caught by a third man in, has lead me to refine my approach further.
If anyone calls the big reraise, or goes all in before me, of course I am out unless on really premium hands.
Figuring out the big stacks range and using it to manipulate odds in your favour is a great strategy for surviving their raises. But unless you combine those odds with being able to isolate the big stack, another player showing strong interest is a good time to get out.
So, if just the super aggressive big stack is in, the range is:
77 s up
A 10 up
K J up
If another player shows interest, then the range decreases to top 10% or less.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
The power of changing gears
Watching other players being effective at what they do is a good way to learn extra techniques and patterns that can be applied to your own game.
I watched one player last night give an extreme example of what "changing gears" means, and how to use it to your advantage.
At the start of the tournament, he appeared to be perhaps the ultimate aggressive fish. On every hand that at least had one re-raiser and one caller, he would go all in. Basically, whenever the pot grew to a size over 10x the bb, he would go all in.
You might assume some card selection went into his all ins, but the hand history would indicate otherwise. His lowest hand that he went all in was Q 4 off!
At first he scooped a couple of big pots until people got a better idea of his range, over the next half hour he busted out and rebought (at 10 bucks ago) SEVEN TIMES.
Eventually he did get lucky, and with a few all in moves and a good catch or two, he became the big stack at the table.
Long story short, over the first hour this player was a maniac, going all in on any big pots, willing to rebuy as many times as necessary until he got a big hit.
In that hour all players remaining at the table got a very good idea of his wild play, and you started to see a lot more reraise aggression on second pair, as his range was so low.
So, my calling range on this guy, IF I was able to isolate him in the pot, was any A 9 or higher, any pair 77s or higher, any two face cards with the possible exception of QJ off.
And I doubled up through him once in that first hour with that strategy. All good right?
Well, unknown to the rest of the table, this player who I am sure all of us put somewhere in the "super lucky donk streak" category, suddenly tightened up. Suddenly his calling and re-raising range made a lot more sense.
In the next hour he succeeded in devestating the table. People went all in on second pairs when he had top pair, he started folding to agression. He continued getting lots of action due to his first hour of highly notable maniac play, and continued getting paid off on his premium hands.
I did notice that he was playing less hands, and that his all in calls were starting to have meat behind them, but like the other unfortunate players who lost their stacks to this guy in the second hour of play, I called an all in when my ace hit on the flop (my cards A 9), and he had A Q.
I started seeing evidence of him changing gears, but for whatever reason (also due to my small stack, less than 10x bb) I disregarded that information.
I don't regret my action, at such a small stack against an aggressive player A 9 on is not a bad all in move, but I am much more interested in what made this guy effective. Two things:
1. He played initially a memorable playing style that was sure to be noted by the table. Within that first hour all but the most innattentive players would know his range.
2. He completely changed 180 degrees his calling range after that first hour, and one by one picked of the rest of the table on his now premium hands.
The big flaw of this strategy of course is that you risk too much to start with (in my opinion), and then you really have to count on a good amount of premium hands or at least strong flops after the first hour of wildness to pull it off.
Both of which are not risks I am willing to take.
However, it does illustrate in the extreme the power of switching gears, in this case from maniac to tight conservative.
The adjustment period that other players go through is the ultimate point of exploitation.
So, two keys here to switching gears:
1. Your playing style or hands you have hit recently are notable, either through their size or strength. The other players at the table MUST have you on a certain range of hands.
2. Your change should be sudden and fairly drastic. If you have been playing tight conservative, your sudden large raises and aggression will initially be folded to, as players give you credit for a tight range. And, as in the extreme example above, if you are in lots of pots, raise on anything, and get caught on a few bluffs, then playing a premium hand in the same way as you played the loose hands can net some big results.
Generally, the safest way to play a big tournament at the lower blind levels is play aggressive conservative for the first hour or so, and then suddenly switch to aggressive lose and continue until players start to lower their calling range, then switch back.
The transition between your playing styles will end up being luctrative.
I watched one player last night give an extreme example of what "changing gears" means, and how to use it to your advantage.
At the start of the tournament, he appeared to be perhaps the ultimate aggressive fish. On every hand that at least had one re-raiser and one caller, he would go all in. Basically, whenever the pot grew to a size over 10x the bb, he would go all in.
You might assume some card selection went into his all ins, but the hand history would indicate otherwise. His lowest hand that he went all in was Q 4 off!
At first he scooped a couple of big pots until people got a better idea of his range, over the next half hour he busted out and rebought (at 10 bucks ago) SEVEN TIMES.
Eventually he did get lucky, and with a few all in moves and a good catch or two, he became the big stack at the table.
Long story short, over the first hour this player was a maniac, going all in on any big pots, willing to rebuy as many times as necessary until he got a big hit.
In that hour all players remaining at the table got a very good idea of his wild play, and you started to see a lot more reraise aggression on second pair, as his range was so low.
So, my calling range on this guy, IF I was able to isolate him in the pot, was any A 9 or higher, any pair 77s or higher, any two face cards with the possible exception of QJ off.
And I doubled up through him once in that first hour with that strategy. All good right?
Well, unknown to the rest of the table, this player who I am sure all of us put somewhere in the "super lucky donk streak" category, suddenly tightened up. Suddenly his calling and re-raising range made a lot more sense.
In the next hour he succeeded in devestating the table. People went all in on second pairs when he had top pair, he started folding to agression. He continued getting lots of action due to his first hour of highly notable maniac play, and continued getting paid off on his premium hands.
I did notice that he was playing less hands, and that his all in calls were starting to have meat behind them, but like the other unfortunate players who lost their stacks to this guy in the second hour of play, I called an all in when my ace hit on the flop (my cards A 9), and he had A Q.
I started seeing evidence of him changing gears, but for whatever reason (also due to my small stack, less than 10x bb) I disregarded that information.
I don't regret my action, at such a small stack against an aggressive player A 9 on is not a bad all in move, but I am much more interested in what made this guy effective. Two things:
1. He played initially a memorable playing style that was sure to be noted by the table. Within that first hour all but the most innattentive players would know his range.
2. He completely changed 180 degrees his calling range after that first hour, and one by one picked of the rest of the table on his now premium hands.
The big flaw of this strategy of course is that you risk too much to start with (in my opinion), and then you really have to count on a good amount of premium hands or at least strong flops after the first hour of wildness to pull it off.
Both of which are not risks I am willing to take.
However, it does illustrate in the extreme the power of switching gears, in this case from maniac to tight conservative.
The adjustment period that other players go through is the ultimate point of exploitation.
So, two keys here to switching gears:
1. Your playing style or hands you have hit recently are notable, either through their size or strength. The other players at the table MUST have you on a certain range of hands.
2. Your change should be sudden and fairly drastic. If you have been playing tight conservative, your sudden large raises and aggression will initially be folded to, as players give you credit for a tight range. And, as in the extreme example above, if you are in lots of pots, raise on anything, and get caught on a few bluffs, then playing a premium hand in the same way as you played the loose hands can net some big results.
Generally, the safest way to play a big tournament at the lower blind levels is play aggressive conservative for the first hour or so, and then suddenly switch to aggressive lose and continue until players start to lower their calling range, then switch back.
The transition between your playing styles will end up being luctrative.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Playing the cards
Learning to play the cards is the foundation of good poker play.
Understanding which hands are strong, which weak, learning to recognize how a hand changes after the flop, and learning the value of draws are all critical skills learned through just playing the cards.
Playing the cards simply means that your decisions and betting patterns are dictated by the strength of your hand. The other players betting patterns take less of a role in your decision making.
At beginning poker tournament levels, playing the cards can get you to the money a good deal of the time.
Playing the cards is also a good "1st gear". Its less weight on reading other players and lack of overaggressive betting mean you can avoid aggressive action early in a tournament when a lot of players are going all in.
In larger online tournaments at the $3 level, just playing the cards can occasionally get you past the bubble on a good run of cards.
I definitely had the tendancy to be a more aggressive player when I started, I was in till the end with top pair, and I lost a lot to kickers or underestimating conservative players bets.
At the $1 sit and go level on poker stars, I could get to the money and place maybe 1 in 5 tournaments just playing the cards.
The trouble with playing the cards is that the style becomes to predictable. Even though the first few hands are profitable as people haven't yet established your range, pretty soon, a table with more experienced players is going to know your bets represent your hand accurately. They will exploit this by:
1. Bluffing you out of a hand when the hand you hold does not have the required strength for a big reraise.
2. Trapping you with a stronger hand by making bets that someone with a hand your strength would call.
Any predicatability over time can lead to someone taking advantage of you, but in the initial stages of a tournament, or as the lowest of your "gears", playing the cards is a good option.
Understanding which hands are strong, which weak, learning to recognize how a hand changes after the flop, and learning the value of draws are all critical skills learned through just playing the cards.
Playing the cards simply means that your decisions and betting patterns are dictated by the strength of your hand. The other players betting patterns take less of a role in your decision making.
At beginning poker tournament levels, playing the cards can get you to the money a good deal of the time.
Playing the cards is also a good "1st gear". Its less weight on reading other players and lack of overaggressive betting mean you can avoid aggressive action early in a tournament when a lot of players are going all in.
In larger online tournaments at the $3 level, just playing the cards can occasionally get you past the bubble on a good run of cards.
I definitely had the tendancy to be a more aggressive player when I started, I was in till the end with top pair, and I lost a lot to kickers or underestimating conservative players bets.
At the $1 sit and go level on poker stars, I could get to the money and place maybe 1 in 5 tournaments just playing the cards.
The trouble with playing the cards is that the style becomes to predictable. Even though the first few hands are profitable as people haven't yet established your range, pretty soon, a table with more experienced players is going to know your bets represent your hand accurately. They will exploit this by:
1. Bluffing you out of a hand when the hand you hold does not have the required strength for a big reraise.
2. Trapping you with a stronger hand by making bets that someone with a hand your strength would call.
Any predicatability over time can lead to someone taking advantage of you, but in the initial stages of a tournament, or as the lowest of your "gears", playing the cards is a good option.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Getting back on the rails (recovering from tilt)
The best known and most obvious way of going on tilt is to get hit hard with a bad beat. Online, if you have player chat on a comment by the winner can definitely send you over the edge.
Tilt can also grow slowly, where you are making good decisions but getting beaten consistently, perhaps bad beats, perhaps just a streak of second best hands. Frustration grows as your stack shrinks.
Tilt can also occur against just one specific player, where a comment or string of beats against one player puts a huge target on their head.
Three bad things start happening when you go on tilt:
You pursue draws too aggressively.
You believe other players big bets/big calls less.
You bluff more.
One or two bad decisions in any of these categories can send you out.
If you are on tilt on an individual, you may play other players well, but start making the same three mistakes above against a single opponent.
Except for pure stubborness, most of us know when we go on tilt. There are obvious physical and emotional symptoms, and when you stare at the following hand I played:
I have J 4 off
The open cards are 10 4 7 Q A
I have bet hard all the way down to the river card with my "draw".
And the other player has A 10.
Half my stack gone.
There is no logical explanation for this kind of play except for being on tilt. Which I was.
So, whether your play, your racing heart or sweat that let you know your on tilt, as soon as you do:
1. Turn off chat if its on.
2. Play only premium easy decision hands, where if either card hits, you have a premium hand.
3. No bluffing.
4. Play the cards.
Use the time to assess the other players styles and review the big stacks hand history. Take a break for as long as you need until you can start accurately reading players again, getting back on the rails.
This technique has two advantages, the first and obvious is to plug that massive leak that could send you out.
The second less obvious is that you just changed gears. If you have been playing at the same table for a while, other players will be adapting to your probably looser playing style, and/or they will recognize that you might be on tilt. This means they are much more likely to call you when you do play a premium hand, premium flop.
As soon as you recognize the symptoms of tilt change gears. Most importantly, plug the leak. Secondly, if you do get the premium hands, and you DO get the premium flop, you can get a big payday.
Tilt can also grow slowly, where you are making good decisions but getting beaten consistently, perhaps bad beats, perhaps just a streak of second best hands. Frustration grows as your stack shrinks.
Tilt can also occur against just one specific player, where a comment or string of beats against one player puts a huge target on their head.
Three bad things start happening when you go on tilt:
You pursue draws too aggressively.
You believe other players big bets/big calls less.
You bluff more.
One or two bad decisions in any of these categories can send you out.
If you are on tilt on an individual, you may play other players well, but start making the same three mistakes above against a single opponent.
Except for pure stubborness, most of us know when we go on tilt. There are obvious physical and emotional symptoms, and when you stare at the following hand I played:
I have J 4 off
The open cards are 10 4 7 Q A
I have bet hard all the way down to the river card with my "draw".
And the other player has A 10.
Half my stack gone.
There is no logical explanation for this kind of play except for being on tilt. Which I was.
So, whether your play, your racing heart or sweat that let you know your on tilt, as soon as you do:
1. Turn off chat if its on.
2. Play only premium easy decision hands, where if either card hits, you have a premium hand.
3. No bluffing.
4. Play the cards.
Use the time to assess the other players styles and review the big stacks hand history. Take a break for as long as you need until you can start accurately reading players again, getting back on the rails.
This technique has two advantages, the first and obvious is to plug that massive leak that could send you out.
The second less obvious is that you just changed gears. If you have been playing at the same table for a while, other players will be adapting to your probably looser playing style, and/or they will recognize that you might be on tilt. This means they are much more likely to call you when you do play a premium hand, premium flop.
As soon as you recognize the symptoms of tilt change gears. Most importantly, plug the leak. Secondly, if you do get the premium hands, and you DO get the premium flop, you can get a big payday.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Thinking two or more moves ahead
I remember starting out poker and getting a feel for the hands, knowing what was valuable, what draws were, and what cards were dead ends or traps. However, there were situations where I would execute my perfectly thought of plan, and then the other player would do something I didn't expect, and I would be stuck.
For example, I limp in with A 4 and hit my ace on the flop. I bet fairly large, and everyone but one folds. What now?
As I had not thought past the big bet move, do I bet again on the turn? How much? Do I check and fold if he bets on the turn?
If I hadn't prepared for these questions, then my responses were unsure and more often than not, I lost more chips than I had to.
So, I now KNOW what I am going to do with my hand pre flop before the flop occurs. If I have an A 3, and decide that that players I am playing the flop with are mostly conservative, and no calling stations, then the big raise occurs. What I do next is dependent on how the other players react, probably, unless I see a clear draw that could indicate why the other person called, I will fold on any turn bet.
I already know what I going to do in reaction to another players actions before they occur. This has lead to better decision making since the decision doesn't have to be on the spot and unsure.
Of course, you have to react to the other players, and be prepared for your plans to change suddenly. If you hit the flop with that Ace, but another conservative player bets into you first, then its probably time to switch plans and fold.
The other key which you will often see in beginners is not getting married to your hand, be ready to change plans. Sure, preflop a pair of Kings is a mighty hand indeed. But if you pre-flop raise is called, and an ace comes on the board, are you ready to fold? If a draw comes on the board, are you ready to change your plans now? I have seen numerous hands where pocket Aces or Kings are busted out post flop unecessarily due to one of two things:
Obvious made draws.
A normally conservative player calling or raising the pocket pairs aggressive bets.
These two key items, planning at least two moves ahead of your current move, and being prepared to change on a dime when other players actions and the flop provide new information work together to improve the decisions you make in the game.
For example, I limp in with A 4 and hit my ace on the flop. I bet fairly large, and everyone but one folds. What now?
As I had not thought past the big bet move, do I bet again on the turn? How much? Do I check and fold if he bets on the turn?
If I hadn't prepared for these questions, then my responses were unsure and more often than not, I lost more chips than I had to.
So, I now KNOW what I am going to do with my hand pre flop before the flop occurs. If I have an A 3, and decide that that players I am playing the flop with are mostly conservative, and no calling stations, then the big raise occurs. What I do next is dependent on how the other players react, probably, unless I see a clear draw that could indicate why the other person called, I will fold on any turn bet.
I already know what I going to do in reaction to another players actions before they occur. This has lead to better decision making since the decision doesn't have to be on the spot and unsure.
Of course, you have to react to the other players, and be prepared for your plans to change suddenly. If you hit the flop with that Ace, but another conservative player bets into you first, then its probably time to switch plans and fold.
The other key which you will often see in beginners is not getting married to your hand, be ready to change plans. Sure, preflop a pair of Kings is a mighty hand indeed. But if you pre-flop raise is called, and an ace comes on the board, are you ready to fold? If a draw comes on the board, are you ready to change your plans now? I have seen numerous hands where pocket Aces or Kings are busted out post flop unecessarily due to one of two things:
Obvious made draws.
A normally conservative player calling or raising the pocket pairs aggressive bets.
These two key items, planning at least two moves ahead of your current move, and being prepared to change on a dime when other players actions and the flop provide new information work together to improve the decisions you make in the game.
Playing the super aggressive big stack.
Played the $11 buy in big tourney last night on pokerstars, and made two mistakes in the same hand that cost me about 70% of my stack.
Against an aggressive big stack.
A super aggressive big stack is in 50% or more of the pots, they always raise pre-flop, and will usually raise post flop. The size of their raises means the number of decisions you will make are greatly reduced, but the importance of those decisions is also greatly amplified.
Hand selection is critical. Establish range early, of course they will raise on any premium hand, but as they get more aggressive, mid to low pairs come in, suited connectors, ace anything,
And sometimes outright bluffs on 10 7 of or similar.
A super aggressive big stack will give you two criticial decisions, one pre flop, one post. Thats it. You must decide what you are going to do with BOTH decisions before you call one of their be pre-flop raises.
On drawing hands, you will just call, to see the flop.
On made hands, you will re-raise or go all in. But which hands?
That depends somewhat on their range but I definitely will go all in against a super aggressive big stack pre flop raise with a pair of 9s or higher. You are looking for the situation where your pair is at least higher than their kicker, so that you hand odds are in the 70% win range. Mid to high pairs are easy decisions against hyper aggressive big stacks, you go all in against a big pre-flop raise.
As tempting as it may seem, you don't want to go all in against the big stack with hands such as A 3 pre flop. They may have you dominated on a higher kicker, not good, most likely you will be in a drawing situation against two live cards where your odds are closer to 50/50. Pre-flop with nothing committed, those odds are not high enough for an all in.
So, you have two decisions to make, yes, you have to call their big raise, but you also have to decide BEFORE you call what you are going to do in these three situations:
1. You hit your high card.
2. You hit your low card.
3. You hit nothing.
If you have A 3 and you miss the ace (only about 20% odds on flop) what will you do when you hit the 3? Make that decision before you call pre flop.
The mistake I made last night is not making that decision pre flop. I had K J off, not a bad pre-flop CALLING hand against the over aggressive big stack. The flop hit the K. I foolishly had not thought about this situation and was not sure what to do when he bet enough to put me essentially all in (a little worried about kicker trouble).
I should have gone all in. I didn't. Second mistake as a result of the first.
So, from tonight I learned:
1. Go all in pre flop on made hands against the super aggressive big stack.
2. Decide before the flop what you are going to do after the flop if you hit on one or other of your drawing cards. Always check post flop if you hit since they will always raise. Execute your pre flop decision based on the flop.
One final word, the only time super aggressive big stack players just call big bets is when they have the nuts.
Against an aggressive big stack.
A super aggressive big stack is in 50% or more of the pots, they always raise pre-flop, and will usually raise post flop. The size of their raises means the number of decisions you will make are greatly reduced, but the importance of those decisions is also greatly amplified.
Hand selection is critical. Establish range early, of course they will raise on any premium hand, but as they get more aggressive, mid to low pairs come in, suited connectors, ace anything,
And sometimes outright bluffs on 10 7 of or similar.
A super aggressive big stack will give you two criticial decisions, one pre flop, one post. Thats it. You must decide what you are going to do with BOTH decisions before you call one of their be pre-flop raises.
On drawing hands, you will just call, to see the flop.
On made hands, you will re-raise or go all in. But which hands?
That depends somewhat on their range but I definitely will go all in against a super aggressive big stack pre flop raise with a pair of 9s or higher. You are looking for the situation where your pair is at least higher than their kicker, so that you hand odds are in the 70% win range. Mid to high pairs are easy decisions against hyper aggressive big stacks, you go all in against a big pre-flop raise.
As tempting as it may seem, you don't want to go all in against the big stack with hands such as A 3 pre flop. They may have you dominated on a higher kicker, not good, most likely you will be in a drawing situation against two live cards where your odds are closer to 50/50. Pre-flop with nothing committed, those odds are not high enough for an all in.
So, you have two decisions to make, yes, you have to call their big raise, but you also have to decide BEFORE you call what you are going to do in these three situations:
1. You hit your high card.
2. You hit your low card.
3. You hit nothing.
If you have A 3 and you miss the ace (only about 20% odds on flop) what will you do when you hit the 3? Make that decision before you call pre flop.
The mistake I made last night is not making that decision pre flop. I had K J off, not a bad pre-flop CALLING hand against the over aggressive big stack. The flop hit the K. I foolishly had not thought about this situation and was not sure what to do when he bet enough to put me essentially all in (a little worried about kicker trouble).
I should have gone all in. I didn't. Second mistake as a result of the first.
So, from tonight I learned:
1. Go all in pre flop on made hands against the super aggressive big stack.
2. Decide before the flop what you are going to do after the flop if you hit on one or other of your drawing cards. Always check post flop if you hit since they will always raise. Execute your pre flop decision based on the flop.
One final word, the only time super aggressive big stack players just call big bets is when they have the nuts.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Playing inexperienced players.
The only cash game I play in right now is either the friday or saturday $10 tourney on pokerstars.
The rest of the time I play free poker.
Free poker has the most inexperienced players, 1$ buy in cash tournaments have a few, and in any large tournament from 1 - 10 dollar buy ins you will run into one or two.
Some things about these players are difficult, bluffs fall on deaf ears, called bets make little sense, especially in ratio to the size of the called bet. However, other things can usually be exploited. A little observation usually reveals:
Kickers are not usually considered on top pair. If they hit top pair no kicker they will swallow large bets through the river. Especially aces.
They will usually not check raise or even re-raise. They will just call medium to large bets with two pair. Or even a set. They undervalue most large hands up to straights.
Don't bluff them.
So, an ideal situation is where you have top pair good kicker. If they also have top pair, especially an ace, they will call large bets to the river.
Generally, if they hit almost any pair or draw, they are calling stations. They are ideal for drawing hands, as you can usually make a small enough bet to make the pot odds favourable on the draw, and they won't re-raise.
The real advantage can be exploited on calculating odds on all in moves. They make mistakes going for draws (calling large bets on gut shot straight draws), they overvalue top pairs. No need though to go all in pre flop unless you have the two top pairs, wait to see what the flop brings and act accordingly.
Against an inexperienced player, you want to see the flop. Your ability to make an educated guess on their hands will give you an advantage post flop.
If you hit big don't bother trying to trap. Instead make mid size bets doubling them to the river, look out for draws.
Beginners are much more likely to see a flushes over a straight, especially a hidden straight (5QA74). If your open ended straight draw hits, and they have a pair of aces or better, you can get all of their chips.
Of all the people you play, they are the most likely to get lucky to beat you, as a good player doesn't get themselves into situations where the odds are stacked heavily against them. The occasional two outer does hit on the river, but as with all poker, its much more important to go out on a good decision than to rely on random luck. That is the price you play for otherwise having an exploitable foe.
The rest of the time I play free poker.
Free poker has the most inexperienced players, 1$ buy in cash tournaments have a few, and in any large tournament from 1 - 10 dollar buy ins you will run into one or two.
Some things about these players are difficult, bluffs fall on deaf ears, called bets make little sense, especially in ratio to the size of the called bet. However, other things can usually be exploited. A little observation usually reveals:
Kickers are not usually considered on top pair. If they hit top pair no kicker they will swallow large bets through the river. Especially aces.
They will usually not check raise or even re-raise. They will just call medium to large bets with two pair. Or even a set. They undervalue most large hands up to straights.
Don't bluff them.
So, an ideal situation is where you have top pair good kicker. If they also have top pair, especially an ace, they will call large bets to the river.
Generally, if they hit almost any pair or draw, they are calling stations. They are ideal for drawing hands, as you can usually make a small enough bet to make the pot odds favourable on the draw, and they won't re-raise.
The real advantage can be exploited on calculating odds on all in moves. They make mistakes going for draws (calling large bets on gut shot straight draws), they overvalue top pairs. No need though to go all in pre flop unless you have the two top pairs, wait to see what the flop brings and act accordingly.
Against an inexperienced player, you want to see the flop. Your ability to make an educated guess on their hands will give you an advantage post flop.
If you hit big don't bother trying to trap. Instead make mid size bets doubling them to the river, look out for draws.
Beginners are much more likely to see a flushes over a straight, especially a hidden straight (5QA74). If your open ended straight draw hits, and they have a pair of aces or better, you can get all of their chips.
Of all the people you play, they are the most likely to get lucky to beat you, as a good player doesn't get themselves into situations where the odds are stacked heavily against them. The occasional two outer does hit on the river, but as with all poker, its much more important to go out on a good decision than to rely on random luck. That is the price you play for otherwise having an exploitable foe.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Going out on a bad beat
I hate bad beats.
I know, who doesn't, but its something I want to work on.
I can explain.
The last decision you make in a large tournament is generally the one you want to be strong, well thought out, and carefully played. It is the single hand you will most analyse after the fact, and making a foolish decision, not seeing a straight or a flush... will hang in your mind for days.
So, big decisions for all of your stack should always be well thought out, and, even if a trap appear successful, and all in should never be instantaneous.
Last night I was in the 10$ buy in tourney on poker stars, ended up with around 2000 players.
Two key hands.
The beginning of the tournament is following a pattern that appears to happen at all buy in levels so far, over agressive betting and all ins on long speculation or top pair no kicker. On a table of 9, you typically get 3 or 4 who will go all in for a wide range of hands. I isolate these people and establish range, what will they go all in with? What will they call all in with?
So, when I had A Q off, and one of these players re-raises 1/4 of his stack I called it. And a second of the wild group goes all in. What range do I put them on? Ace anything suited, any pair. I know the second player is going to be all in, it will be his third after a rebuy. So I am getting 1 in 3 pot odds on my A Q.
I have to accept that this is a calculated gamble, the safe way to play is hold back until your odds are dominant, then go all in. But I also thought A Q had a good chance of being ahead.
The other two Hands?
77
A 6
Not bad, almost exactly on pot odds.
The seven hits his set and a queen helps me nothing, buy back in.
Other key hand. In on button with J 4 off, all folded to me, re-raised to 3x bb, 1 caller.
Flop comes down 7 4 2 rainbow. I decide to project strength, continuation bet, and a four makes this a weak drawing hand. I bet 1/10 my stack. He calls. My plan is to get the hell out unless my pair of 4s improves. Turn card, J. I have two pair. I check, he goes in for half his stack. Decision time.
He might have top pair or an over pair. He has been over agressive, so his range would also include A 4. I highly doubt the set as I think this would have been all in on the flop after my big bet. Against all draws I am ahead but my read is this guy is overplaying.
I go all in.
He pauses, and calls. He has, 55. A pair of 5s. His odds of hitting are 20 to 1, I am 95% to 5% ahead.
One card left before I double up. He has two outs. He hits one. The 5. I am out.
I did all I could here, and was even further ahead than I had estimated when they showed, this was a great decision.
Of all the ways to go out this is precisely how I want to go. I want the burn of defeat to go away, and be replaced with a zen like calm of the knowledge of a good decision.
Or at least have it burn a little less.
I know, who doesn't, but its something I want to work on.
I can explain.
The last decision you make in a large tournament is generally the one you want to be strong, well thought out, and carefully played. It is the single hand you will most analyse after the fact, and making a foolish decision, not seeing a straight or a flush... will hang in your mind for days.
So, big decisions for all of your stack should always be well thought out, and, even if a trap appear successful, and all in should never be instantaneous.
Last night I was in the 10$ buy in tourney on poker stars, ended up with around 2000 players.
Two key hands.
The beginning of the tournament is following a pattern that appears to happen at all buy in levels so far, over agressive betting and all ins on long speculation or top pair no kicker. On a table of 9, you typically get 3 or 4 who will go all in for a wide range of hands. I isolate these people and establish range, what will they go all in with? What will they call all in with?
So, when I had A Q off, and one of these players re-raises 1/4 of his stack I called it. And a second of the wild group goes all in. What range do I put them on? Ace anything suited, any pair. I know the second player is going to be all in, it will be his third after a rebuy. So I am getting 1 in 3 pot odds on my A Q.
I have to accept that this is a calculated gamble, the safe way to play is hold back until your odds are dominant, then go all in. But I also thought A Q had a good chance of being ahead.
The other two Hands?
77
A 6
Not bad, almost exactly on pot odds.
The seven hits his set and a queen helps me nothing, buy back in.
Other key hand. In on button with J 4 off, all folded to me, re-raised to 3x bb, 1 caller.
Flop comes down 7 4 2 rainbow. I decide to project strength, continuation bet, and a four makes this a weak drawing hand. I bet 1/10 my stack. He calls. My plan is to get the hell out unless my pair of 4s improves. Turn card, J. I have two pair. I check, he goes in for half his stack. Decision time.
He might have top pair or an over pair. He has been over agressive, so his range would also include A 4. I highly doubt the set as I think this would have been all in on the flop after my big bet. Against all draws I am ahead but my read is this guy is overplaying.
I go all in.
He pauses, and calls. He has, 55. A pair of 5s. His odds of hitting are 20 to 1, I am 95% to 5% ahead.
One card left before I double up. He has two outs. He hits one. The 5. I am out.
I did all I could here, and was even further ahead than I had estimated when they showed, this was a great decision.
Of all the ways to go out this is precisely how I want to go. I want the burn of defeat to go away, and be replaced with a zen like calm of the knowledge of a good decision.
Or at least have it burn a little less.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)