Fake rocks

There is one strategy that is used in sit and go tournaments, often enough that, once observed, it can be exploited.

The strategy is simple enough. Early on in the tournament, simply wait for good cards and fold on all misses. The main goal here is loosing as little as possible, minimizing risk, and only going to showdown with premium hands. Depending on how the cards run and whether other players learn to back off if they are calling strong, players can double up or more over time.

I have even seen players completely sit out the first two blind levels so that there stats (for those following stats with the HUD) will appear very tight.

In the first case, the goal here is to portray the rock playing style. The hand history on these players only shows strong hands, so no clues as to the upcoming gear change from history. And, any heads up display hand tracking software will give them very tight statistics, leading players to believe that pre-flop raises indicate strong holdings, the same for post flop action.

The players who completely sit out the first two blind levels are doing the extreme version of this. The software will still track the hands played even as they sit out, leading to the conclusion that, based on soley on stats, they are playing tight.

The second tournament strategy is easier to pick out, as usually players who sit out for the first two blind levels then enter the game loose and aggressive. Wait for strong holdings and let them bet into you. When they suddenly start playing hands, establish range as quickly as possible. Also, a player sitting out for the first few rounds might as well have a flashing light above their name, as soon as they sit back in their playing style is put under the microscope for possible exploitation.

The first fake rock strategy however can be tougher to spot, the first clue is usually the person is suddenly increasing the number of hands they participate in.

The second clue is based on a change in playing style. Rocks only raise when they have strong holdings, but suddenly this player is raising one off the button to steal blinds and doing large continuation bets after every pre-flop raise. The key here is to notice the FREQUENCY of these moves. Rocks make them very occasionally, fake rocks make them more often than they don't.

This second clue is key, as a real rock sometimes gets on a rush of good hands, its important to attempt to find the difference between a rush and a change in gears.

Another clue is folding to a re-raise after a continuation bet. This is a situation that a rock is unlikely to find themselves in, they would only bet if they have hit strong, and would usually have a hand that can defend against a re-raise. Observe this in another players hand and know that you are most likely no longer dealing with a rock.

A combination of these clues and others can identify the fake rock rather quickly as the action heats up with the final table. Keep your range calculations on this player dynamic, and rely more on recent hand history than stats over entire tournament playing style.

An especially devastating move these fake rocks like to employ is the deadly all in. If you have played an entire tournament with a player who appears tight, and then moves all in when you have top pair good kicker, this puts you in a tough spot.

The only thing to do here is to have established recent range. And keep very close track of exactly how the hand played out. A fake rock is going to be check raising and highly aggressive and loose in most hands. A real rock will not. Stick to your hands when you have decent holdings against them, lower what you will call them with.

If you can put these clues together, sudden increase in number of hands played, recent hand history indicating lowering range, and especially an increase in aggressiveness on all streets, then the fake rock trick may be under play.

As you can see from this post and the min raise post, there are situations where, even with the same player, you might fold to a min raise, but call an all in. A fake rock suddenly going aggressive will only min raise on the nuts, but will push all in to get you off a hand.

Putting this all together can lead to the hero call on a post flop all in bluff.

Small stack late tournament trap

So, you've played well, stayed tight, been aggressive when in the pot, and you've made it to the final table. The final table consists of a couple of stacks larger than yours, three (including yourself) in the mid stack range (30bb) and three or four small stacks (less than 10 bb).

The blinds here are devastating for the small stacks, they know they have to chip up fast or they will be blinded out. And, they also know that going below 3bb means they will give no fold equity, a large stack will call a tiny stack all in with almost any two cards.

So, the small stacks are basically waiting for a hand strong enough for an all in. Depending on stack size, any ace, certainly any pair, and probably any two face cards will do.

However, a smart small stack also realizes that if someone has raised with other players yet to act, and they have a moderate weak hand such as A 3, then this is not the time to push, as the larger stack that already pre-flop raised probably has a better hand.

A smart short stack also understands the power of blind stealing. If 1 or more players before them have limped into the pot, indicating less than premium holdings, they can push all in to take that limp as well as the blinds and antes.

This behaviour, if observed, can be taken advantage of.

Normally, if you have a strong hand such as A Q or a pair of 10's, you would pre-flop raise to build the pot. However, if there are small stacks desperately trying to double up at your table, you can set the small stack trap.

If you are in early position, instead of raising with these hands, you will limp. This indicates a medium strength hand, and this limp will be much less likely to deter a small stack from going all in, as they might feel an all in would push you off of your limp bet.

The other advantage here is that the small stacks all in will most likely deter others from entering the pot, meaning it will be just you and the small stack going to the flop and beyond on their all in.

Of course, if a big stack yet to act raises your bet, then your focus shifts to playing that player instead of the small stack, as they can potentially cause a lot more damage to your chip stack. Fortunately, limping with a strong hand means you are well defended and ready to go to the flop with that big stack.

Most times, it is definitely wise to raise with a strong hand to build the pot and reduce the number of post flop players.

However, at the end of a tournament when surrounded by desperate small stacks, a strong hand that would otherwise deter their all in with a raise can instead be used as a trap, portraying a marginal hand giving the small stack the confidence to push.

Beware the min raise!

There is one move or bet size in poker that, in certain situations, should set off alarm bells.

That move is the min raise.

In order to understand why the min raise is so important, we need to understand why it is used by experienced poker players.

The min raise absolutely unequivically says the better wants you in the pot. They are pricing you in.

If you combine a min raise with an otherwise tight aggressive player then you know you are facing a strong hand.

Pre flop

When do players min raise pre-flop?

A player who has strong holdings with no callers before them, particulary in late position, may min-raise in order to tempt the remaining players, particularly the blinds, into calling with weaker holdings.

A player min raising with lots of players already in the pot most likely has a strong drawing hand, such as K Q suited. Usually (not always) a min raise pre flop does not indicate a strong made hand, such as queens or higher. Or the player feels they have a hand that would simply dominate if it hit on the flop, such as a set. A min raise pre-flop is simply a pot builder, the player making it likes the potential of their hand.

Post flop

Post flop, a min raise, especially from tight aggressive players, should set off alarm bells.

Why would someone min raise post flop?

Again, they are trying to keep their opponent(s) in the pot.

And, any time a players normal behavior changes, such as a normally aggressive player suddenly only min-raising, should also set off alarm bells.

So, if you raise pre-flop with A K. Only one caller from a tight aggressive player. Your K hits on the flop, the other cards seem to be insignificant non face cards. You decide to play aggressively, and, after the other player checks to you, you make a solid almost pot sized bet.

After waiting for a few moments the other player min-raises you. Top Pair Top Kicker is such a strong hand. What is going on here?

What could they have They called your decent raise pre-flop. Then, post flop they...

And here is another clue. Post flop they did not check right away, a few seconds passed before the check.

You assess their play prior to this hand. You cannot see a single situation where they went to showdown with anything weak, you cannot find a single example of them calling big raises post flop with weak holdings.

This is starting to look more and more like you have run into a set.

Generally, min raises on any street from an experienced player means the other player feels very strongly that their hand is the best hand, and are deliberatly pricing you in.

Slow down, think, and perform some serious assessment before making that easy call...

Exploiting Table Image

Sometimes, during a poker tournament, a set of circumstances occur that mean you have a specific table image.

Last night, I was involved in very few hands pre-flop, only made a couple of smallish continuation bets, checked the rest of the time, and folded to aggression. The two hands that did go to showdown ended up doubling me up each time, but both were very strong hands (a set and two pair) so other players watching these hands would know I need a strong hand before calling a big bet, I would usually fold.

If you look at just these facts without understanding the reasoning behind them, then you would put me safely in the rock category, meaning that aggression and big bets would get me to fold in most circumstances.

This affects the way other players play you.

I started getting lots of pre-flop raises and all ins.

Lots of players, even those who weren't being that aggressive otherwise, started betting into me.

So how does this get exploited?

Patience first. Then think.

I am seeing an observable repeatable pattern from multiple players that can be exploited. In four main ways:

1. Pre-flop. Push all in or call an all in with strong holdings to double up.
2. Both. Call a big pre flop raise and bet into the flop large.
3. Post flop. Play a pre-flop raise weakly until the river and then double any bets with good holdings.
4. Post flop. Make a large check raise.

The first is simply about range, you are waiting to establish a range on the pre-flop all in callers so that you can call near the top of their range.

The second is taking advantage of the rock reputation. Most players will believe when a rock calls a big pre-flop raise, and then believe that the rock has hit when they bet big post flop (particularly if they have seen examples of lots of flop checking and folding to raises in previous hands). There is bluffing opportunity here.

The third is trapping with a strong hand by playing it weakly. So, even though your hand that you raised with pre-flop has hit, you make the same weak continuation bet you have previously (2x bb). Your opponent calls. You check the turn. They check the turn. On the river, thanks to your reputation, they assume you have nothing. If they have position, you check, they bet, you at least double it. If you have position, you at least double their lead out be on the river.

The fourth is again taking advantage of the rock reputation. When a rock does make a big bet, most players without top notch holdings will fold. There is bluffing opportunity here.

As in all poker, even making the right decisions and moves doesn't guarantee victory, after being successful at using strategy number 4 for one hand, I called an over aggressive all in player from the small blind in the big blind. Who had pushed three times on me in the last 20 hands.

I called with A Q off.

They had JQ off.

They hit the J and I was out.

The outcome was not important. The important thing was understanding how table circumstances can lead to you having a specific table image, whether accurate or not. Figuring out ways of exploiting that table image will lead to profits over time.

Playing Ace King Pre Flop

An ACE KING as your starting cards in Texas Hold-em is one of the most desired hands, just after the big two pairs. Doyle Brunson however calls Ace King "Two tickets to Memphis", as in, playing these cards wrong will send you home in a hurry.

Whether or not you go all in yourself, or call an all in, is another key consideration.

Scenario 1, Calling an all in.

There is a mathmatical perspective that says any time you are facing an all in with an Ace King, you should call. I can't remember the precise values, but, if you called every all in you face with Ace King, you will win between 53 and 54% of the time. For those mathmatical players who focus soley on EV, perhaps this is a good approach for you.

Ace King is a DRAWING hand however, its merely Ace High if neither card hits. So, facing any made hand (a pair) puts you in a slightly disadvantaged coin flip situation. You have about a 2% disadvantage over a pair of two's, moving up to a 43 to 57% disadvantage to any pair starting at 10s. And of course you are at a distinct disadvantage against a pair of aces or kings, even if that likelyhood is reduced since you are also holding an ace and a king.

So, against a pair lower than kings, you are in a slightly badly weighted coin flip situation.

The real advantage of Ace King comes when the other player is also holding an ace with a lower kicker. Here is one situation where you would definitely want to call an all in.

So, if you are holding an ace king, and you are facing an all in, you should ask the following questions:

1. Is the other player very tight or conservative? Do they play very few hands? Have they gone all in before? A very tight player with a decent stack moving all in should set off alarm bells. You are almost certainly slightly behind here (10's to Q's) or worst case scenario, one of the big pairs. If a rock moves all in before you act, this might not be the time to call.
2. Are they short stacked? If they are, most likely their range is lowering, call them.
3. Do you know the other players all in range? Have they been trying to double up quickly as part of their tournament strategy? If a player has been going all in multiple times early in a tournament, and Ace King is a great calling hand.

Scenario 2. Pushing all in with Ace King.

Certainly, if you have an Ace King, and it is pre-flop, you are going to be raising, or if someone has raised before you, three bettting. What if you are again raised? Should you push? Or just call?

Any time you are going to push all in with less than the two big pairs, you need to do some careful analysis before making the move. The same holds true for Ace King.

Remember that the power of Ace King comes from hitting one of your cards, knowing what the flop contains and if you have hit can increase your odds of winning significantly. So, if you are in a situation where there are re-raises on your raise, then just calling and seeing the flop can secure a win or prevent further chip loss.

If however, you are facing a small stack that has a decent chunk invested in a pre-flop raise, then a push will either end up with a fold or perhaps a call on a weaker ace. Both are desirable outcomes.

Or, if you are facing what appears to be a steal attempt, then pushing can quickly send the message that you are not easy to blind steal from.

Otherwise, calling rather than pushing with Ace King (after raising yourself of course) can reduce losses.

Very short stacked players should always push all in with Ace King. Lots of inferior holdings are willing to call a small stack all in.


Would you ever limp with Ace King?

The majority of time, you should be raising or re-raising with your ace king pre-flop to increase pot size and therefore your winnings when it hits.

There are however a couple of situations where a call could be a deceptive strategy. One is if you have a blind punisher at the table. This player type loves it when four or more limps take place, they raise to 5x BB or more and take all of the blinds and antes. If two or more have limped in front of you, and you know the blind punisher is yet to act, a limp here followed by an all in to a blind stealer can be a satisfying result.

The other is if other players are hyper aggressive. If you can be CERTAIN that a specific player or player is going to raise, based on history, go ahead an limp. A hyper aggressive player is most certainly going to be behind when they raise your limp, a re-raise or push here can take their chips on inferior holdings.

So, unless you can be almost certain that you will be raised, always raise with Ace King and build the pot pre flop.

Milestone Reached!

Have been playing a number of larger online tournaments over the last little while, and recently achieved a second in a tournament that netted over 500 bucks!

Tight aggressive was the playing style, kept the number of bluffs down until I could be more certain of folds in specific situations, pushed hard and aggressively if I thought I was ahead, and folded to aggression from players to be respected in specific situations.

The first milestone I achieved was in early 2010, when I was no longer in debt (I had won more than I spent on pokerstars, and had paid back all money spent on pokerstars).

This one means my career winnings have passed the 2000 dollar mark, not making me rich anytime soon but not bad for a passtime!